Texas is the workshop, the infirmary, and the breadbasket of the US. It is always in second place in national rankings—in area, population, and economic size—but it considers itself first among those regions inhabited by "normal" people, simple Americans, the salt of the earth, rather than the five-leafed freaks of California, with their bubble economy, zombies in the streets, and other signs of a liberal hell. Texas is real manufacturing and agriculture, oil, and Elon Musk—who moved from California during the culture wars—weapons and space, rodeo and barbecue, patriotism, and the Bible. Only one in fifteen US citizens is Texan, but one in five American soldiers is a Texan. And since the major parties swapped their electoral audiences, the state has become a reliable stronghold of the Republican Party and, consequently, of President Donald Trump. But even Texas has grown tired of endless wars. That is why it is in favor of revolution!
The two Republicans
This week, local Republicans concluded an important internal party process—the selection of a candidate for the Senate. The two finalists are John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Both are white and gray-haired. Both are experienced politicians. Both have fathers who were fighter pilots and were raised on military bases. Both are lawyers and attorneys general of Texas—Paxton is the incumbent attorney general, while Cornyn is the incumbent senator. Both support Trump. Both are conservative and would vote the same way on the vast majority of issues in the Senate. However, there is a difference between them. A very obvious difference. Cornyn is a figure of the establishment, without troublesome wealth, but with significant prestige and influence. A former judge with three university degrees, he is one of the pioneers in the fight against cybercrime. He is a four-time clear winner in primaries and senate races. He is a typical "old school" American politician. He is an exemplary family man. Paxton is a boor, a troublemaker, a liar, a chatterbox, and a jester. He committed securities fraud, avoiding trial by covering the damages. He was unanimously removed from his position as a prosecutor in the Texas House with 20 charges but was narrowly acquitted in the Senate. There were suspicions against him of abuse of power for the benefit of donors, accepting bribes, obstruction of justice, violation of his oath, and employing a mistress. He is in the process of divorcing his wife, who left him citing her husband's violation of "biblical principles." He stole a $1,000 pen from a colleague on camera!
John Cornyn & Ken Paxton
The hawk and the isolationist
If they were choosing a history teacher to entrust their child to, a used car salesman to buy from, or a neighbor they would be willing to spend a long flight with, Paxton would have no chance. But they were choosing a candidate for the Senate, so he won in 252 Texas districts, while Cornyn won in two, receiving only one-third of the vote statewide. Given that he is an incumbent senator and has served in the Capitol for nearly a quarter of a century, this is an extraordinary event in US politics. A small revolution. The reason lies in another stark difference between Cornyn and Paxton—their roles in the Second Cold War. The main culprits were the neoconservative government of George W. Bush, which decided to violently crush the remnants of an insufficiently globalized world, overthrow the last regimes that were not loyal to the US, and eliminate Russia as a major power through a policy of containment. Cornyn is a neoconservative who survived the collapse of his allies. A hawk who supports interventions around the world. An active lobbyist for Taiwan, an ardent supporter of Ukraine, and a propagandist for an attack on Iran. But Paxton is an isolationist, an opponent of exporting wars, and a critic of Zelensky. He called his opponent "the senator from Ukraine, not from Texas." The score is visible on the board. The victory would not have been so overwhelming if President Trump had not supported Paxton. But he did not do so during the campaign, as usual, but five days before the vote, when the favorite was already known. In other words, he supported the winner. Previously, Trump was the engine of elite change, proposing alternative candidates, but now he is following behind the process. Promising politicians are distancing themselves from him, as the president's approval ratings have approached those of his arch-enemy, Joe Biden, at a time when the US was experiencing the highest inflation in 40 years, and the president was doing nothing other than threatening to attack Iran without a clear reason.
A communist emerges
Just as Cornyn is called "the senator from Ukraine," Trump is now called "the president from Israel." Therefore, the beneficiary of this small revolution in Texas will not be him, nor even Paxton. The revolution is far from over: in the fall, a communist will come and say, as Mayakovsky put it, "Get down! Your time is up!" The "communist" is James Talarico. He is 37 years old, a theologian, a teacher, and the Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate. Usually, Democrats are there to stand on the sidelines and entertain the world, but this time the Republican stronghold is indeed preparing to switch parties! In the polls, Talarico is leading both Paxton and Cornyn, and the chances of the impulsive attorney catching up to him are slim. The White House is unlikely to restore voter confidence in the ruling party before the November elections; Trump would need to perform miracles to achieve this. On the contrary, America is more likely to see the miracle of a Democratic victory in Texas. Such a blow to the Republicans is so painful and tempting that Talarico will receive huge donations and media attention, and in terms of pure human charm, Paxton cannot compare to him, even if he showed prudence and did not challenge his opponent to a "who can quote the Bible more skillfully?" duel—Talarico is an extremely liberal theologian, but he is still a genuine theologian. The Republican campaign is betting on Talarico's inexperience and smear campaigns, as it has nothing else to lean on. The Democrat is branded a communist, a radical, and... a culturally alien vegan. To the latter, he replied that, as an eighth-generation Texan, "he ate his first steak before Ken Paxton received his first criminal charge." In response, the prosecutor called his opponent a vegan again...
James Talarico
The revenge of the Democrats
Many in Texas will not bother with the details and will automatically vote for "their own," the conservative Paxton. But the true voice will be expressed by the preacher Talarico, who willingly and persuasively denounces the attack on Iran and the economic policy of the White House. Paxton lacks this trump card, as he fears offending Trump. The blow in the Middle East has returned to the United States with a purifying fire, sweeping the most hardline hawks from the Capitol. After Cornyn, Lindsey Graham, who is included in Russia's list of terrorists and extremists, will likely lose the primary. And many of those who reach the finals will perish there: in November, the Democrats will gain a majority in both houses of Congress—the only question is whether it will be a historic record—and by spring, they will attempt to impeach Trump. Do not be surprised if they succeed. Even more so, do not be surprised if Talarico turns into a vulgar lobbyist for the death of oilmen and weapons manufacturers, the key political players in Texas, in the Senate. The revolution is inevitable. But, so is the counter-revolution!
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