The hour of defeat, if not humiliation, for the US and President Trump is fast approaching. It is not just that almost none of the original objectives set within the framework of the war against Iran have been achieved. It is that the American public appears fatigued, skeptical, and increasingly reluctant to support a conflict with no clear resolution. Polls demonstrate that public opinion believes Trump cannot extract a meaningful diplomatic deal from Tehran, while within the Republican Party, voices warning that the war could ultimately leave Iran stronger than it was before are multiplying. For Trump, the dilemma is no longer purely military or diplomatic. It is deeply political: how to terminate a war that he failed to successfully "sell" to the American people and from which no easy exit path is visible without a loss of prestige and critical political capital. And the moment of crisis, the highly anticipated mid-term elections on November 3, is drawing near.
Americans are fatigued
The war of the US President, Donald Trump, with Iran has not proven particularly successful thus far. And a large segment of the American public expects that the conclusion of the conflict — whenever it may arrive — will not alter this narrative. Polling over recent weeks outlines a picture of an exhausted American public that has grown completely exhausted. Citizens did not favor the war from the outset, do not believe it will lead to any distinctly positive outcome, and do not appear to anticipate significant concessions or, at the very least, concessions that genuinely justified the massive cost. In short, there is little faith that Trump possesses a viable strategic exit path to extricate the country from this war.
A stronger Iran
The Memorial Day weekend offers some insight into this perspective. It brought some of the most significant indicators to date of actual progress toward a formal war-termination agreement. However, as the details leaked, it became evident that these were completely unacceptable proposals for many more hardline Republican politicians. A number of these Republicans even warned that the agreement could leave Iran significantly stronger than before the war began.
Impasse
And if Iran maintains its hardline stance, it remains unclear what kind of agreement could allow Trump to both salvage his prestige and end the war before it evolves into an even greater political liability for the American president.
"End it"
Multiple polls show that citizens simply want it to end. A Fox News poll last week revealed that just 39% of registered voters wanted US military operations to last "as long as necessary to achieve US goals," compared to 61% who preferred a strictly limited timeframe. Similarly, a New York Times-Siena College poll showed that 52% of registered voters stated the US should terminate military operations even if it cannot reach an agreement with Iran regarding its controversial nuclear program. Merely 37% wanted military operations to resume if the nations fail to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program.
No expectation of an acceptable deal
And this latest poll, alongside other data, reinforces the picture that Americans are not exactly optimistic about an acceptable agreement. Instead, they seem likely to view whatever emerges with deep ideological skepticism. The Times-Siena poll noted that just 22% believed the war would be "very successful" in eliminating Iran's nuclear program — a program which, it is worth underlining again, the Trump administration already claimed was "eliminated" last summer (18% deemed it would be "somewhat successful," while 50% anticipated it would be a total strategic failure). Correspondingly, 65% of Americans were "not too confident" or "not confident at all" that a war-ending deal would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons — which has repeatedly constituted a strict red line for Trump — according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. And nearly two-thirds were only "somewhat" confident, or less, that the administration would achieve its stated geopolitical goals in Iran, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.
Not worth the cost
Even if an agreement is reached containing relatively favorable terms for the US, this does not mean Americans will conclude it was worth the sacrifice. Registered voters stated, by a margin of 55% to 21%, that the war will not be worth the economic cost, according to the Times-Siena poll. Surveys have also repeatedly demonstrated that Americans view the war as counterproductive across multiple sectors. The Post-ABC poll showed that Americans stated:
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61% versus 11% that the war has increased the risk of terrorism against Americans
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56% versus 12% that it has created a risk of weakening vital US alliances
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49% versus 21% that Middle East stability will deteriorate
They do not trust him
Even if Trump defies expectations and manages to secure a favorable deal for the US, he still faces a critical problem: Americans no longer trust him on this issue. The most recent CNN poll, for instance, indicates that just 20% of Americans have "a great deal" of confidence in Trump to make correct decisions regarding Iran. Approximately three times that percentage — 59% — express "not much" or no confidence at all in his administration.
Disorderly retreat
Trump has already backtracked from many of his most absolute demands. He used to say, for example, that he would accept nothing less than "Unconditional Surrender." At other times, he stated his primary objectives were to completely terminate Iran's nuclear program and ensure that Iran could not fund regional proxy groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Based on the most recent negotiating terms, these core foreign policy goals appear to be significantly watered down.
The two critical errors
Trump appears to have made two critical errors from the beginning: he lacked a clear, attainable plan for how he would bring the war to an end, and he did not sufficiently "sell" the war to the American public. Instead, he set the bar for success so high that he will struggle to clear it – unless he restarts large-scale military hostilities and prolongs the war – and told voters, after launching the strikes, that it would be worth the pain. It is clear that Americans do not agree. And while exiting now is probably better politically than allowing matters to drag on, it may simply be the least bad option remaining.
NBC: New list of military targets in Iran if escalation occurs
The US armed forces have compiled a new list of military targets on Iranian soil, in the event that Washington decides to resume operations against the Islamic Republic, NBC claims, citing sources. According to the sources, these involve complex military installations whose targeting demands major effort due to their concealed locations within Iranian territory and their heightened level of protection. However, as the television network points out, the Pentagon's compilation of this list does not mean the US is preparing to launch strikes in the immediate future. An attack on the target-objects described in the list will depend on the political decision of US President Donald Trump regarding negotiations with Iran.
Mohammad Akbarzadeh (IRGC Navy Commander): The US is begging us for a deal
The dependence of the US and European economies on global fuel prices and its impact on regional developments function as a lever of pressure, which has brought the United States into a position of begging for a deal with Iran, claimed Mohammad Akbarzadeh, commander of the IRGC Navy. Regional countries and global powers have concluded that the United States is no longer in a position to secure its regional allies, Mohammad Akbarzadeh stressed.
Cory Booker (Democratic Senator): Trump's approach to negotiations has strengthened Iran's position
Pro-Israel Democratic Senator Cory Booker argued that Trump's approach to negotiations has significantly strengthened Tehran's position. In an interview, Booker said the current strategy has failed completely and delivered the opposite geopolitical results. "That is why this war is a mistake. It has brought us into a situation worse than before. A more extreme regime, while the strategic Strait of Hormuz now constitutes a lever of pressure for them," Booker said. "This weak nation has brought America to an impasse, and Donald Trump is being viewed as the fool because he put us in this situation in the first place," the prominent Democratic senator maintained.
Iran fires at US: You flagrantly violated the ceasefire
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed that it will not leave any malicious action unanswered and will not hesitate at all to defend itself following attacks by the US Navy against vessels and a missile launch base belonging to the Revolutionary Guards. In a statement, the Iranian Foreign Ministry notes that the US terrorist army, continuing its illegal and unjustified actions since the announcement of the ceasefire, particularly multiple acts of maritime piracy against Iranian commercial vessels, proceeded over the last 48 hours with a flagrant violation of the ceasefire in the geopolitically sensitive Hormozgan region. "The commission of these aggressive actions, concurrent with the ongoing diplomatic process mediated by Pakistan, has exposed once again the breach of commitments and the unreliability of the US leadership before the Iranian nation, the peoples of the region, and the international community. At the same time, it showed that the fundamental approach of the Iranian nation across all three fields — the field of action, the path, and diplomacy — is founded upon deep distrust toward the US regime, anchored in logic and a profound understanding of its vengeful and criminal military conduct toward the people of Iran," the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs points out.
China's intervention: We are working to resolve the impasse between US – Iran
Beijing is working to resolve the deadlock between the US and Iran, maintained China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi. "The resolution of long-standing disputes is not an overnight affair, but every step forward in negotiations brings a gleam of hope for peace," Wang argued after presiding over a high-level meeting of the UN Security Council. Wang said Beijing maintains continuous communication with the key actors: the US, Iran, and Pakistan, which has assumed the leading role in mediating the peace talks. "We hope that the parties involved will firmly adhere to the ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities, continue to move toward one another, and restore peace to the unstable Middle East as soon as possible," Wang added. On Monday, Wang met in Beijing with Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, the key diplomatic interlocutor between Tehran and Washington, with the two men discussing their efforts to restore peace to the Middle East, according to announcements from the respective countries.
What we know about the talks so far
Following weeks of mostly indirect talks, both sides say they have recorded progress on a memorandum of understanding (MoU), which would halt the war and grant negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement. The framework focuses on ending the war and the crippling US naval blockade, in exchange for Tehran taking steps to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei. Senior Iranian diplomat Hossein Nooshabadi told the ISNA agency that the potential framework agreement includes ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, releasing frozen Iranian financial assets, lifting the US naval blockade and opening the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US forces from the region surrounding Iran, and the absolute freedom to sell valuable Iranian crude oil. Nooshabadi said Iran's plan for an initial agreement contained no commitments regarding its nuclear program. A senior Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that Iran has agreed "in principle" to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting the naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran's highly enriched uranium.
Progress in Qatar
Iranian officials spoke of progress in the peace negotiations in Qatar, though they point out that Iran does not intend to continue negotiations with the US without the release of its frozen assets. According to the Iranian agency Tasnim, an Iranian source characterized the discussions of the Iranian negotiators in Qatar as "overall good," saying the talks "led to progress in the comprehensive diplomatic negotiations." "At the same time, we must not forget that the US is known as an unreliable party, and for this reason, Iran approaches the issues with great caution," the anonymous source stated. It is recalled that Iran is requesting the release of 24 billion dollars from frozen funds within the framework of a possible agreement with the US. According to Tasnim, a source close to Iran's negotiating team stated that the 24 billion dollars from frozen Iranian assets must be released in any potential agreement with the US. The source stated that Tehran's position is that half the amount — namely 12 billion dollars — must be released when a memorandum of understanding is announced, with the remainder being released within 60 days. "Without the release of frozen Iranian assets, no negotiation is possible," an Iranian source told the Fars agency. Tasnim reported that Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf, traveled alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in recent days to Qatar to reach an agreement regarding an implementation mechanism for this demand.
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