The visit of the president of the United States Donald Trump to China, which had been postponed many times, has already been surrounded by myths and speculations, as leaks are scarce. Some argue that it was devoid of substance as it produced negligible results and simply confirmed the decline of the global leadership of the United States. Others are ready to characterize it as a triumph of a peaceful American foreign policy, which prevented the slide toward a war between two nuclear superpowers. What is truly hidden behind all this? To this and other questions answered the well known political analyst, doctor of economic sciences, chief researcher of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Vasiliev. "I would pose the issue as follows: whom did China truly welcome? Simply president Trump or the president of the United States of America? It is not the same thing. In my opinion, Beijing welcomed president Trump, who did not represent the entire country called the United States. Because America is split into two parts (Democrats and Republicans), and indeed quite intensely. A large part of the country, to put it bluntly, does not consider Trump its own president. something which is inevitably reflected also in foreign policy. Today Sino-American relations are at a crossroads. Which path they will follow from here on is still difficult to say. This is related to the fact that there is a specific approach of Trump to these relations and an approach, let us say, of the deep state. Trump considers that in these relations they must be guided by the principles of the Westphalian system. That is, in the world there are large states that have their own national interests, which must in any case be implemented, even without taking into account the charter of the United Nations and the UN Security Council. This is the approach of big capital, which Trump represents. A characteristic confirmation of this constitutes the composition of the presidential delegation of 15 businessmen, whose fortune is estimated at 12 trillion dollars. The talk is about Elon Musk (Tesla and SpaceX), Tim Cook (Apple), Kelly Ortberg (Boeing), Michael Miebach (Mastercard), David Solomon (Goldman Sachs), representatives of the largest American international investment firm BlackRock and others. These aces, like Trump himself, rely on the creation of the so called Chimerica or Chitland, two global state formations, between which a new bipolarity of the world, the G-2, should be created in the 21st century. As China, in the view of Trump, is a scientific-economic power, while the United States is a scientific-technological power. And between them there must be relations of strategic partnership cooperation. By the way, Xi Jinping has expressed it as follows: "Your successes are also our successes". With such a formulation that satisfies both sides returned Trump" noted Vasiliev. To the question "With what principle will relations be built in practice? Because in all eras the United States treated its partners as vassals...", he answers: "So it was and so it is. But China is no longer a vassal of America. The Opium Wars, which the united West unleashed on its territory, and the genocide of the Japanese militarists constituted a great lesson for all eras. China today is a scientific-economic power, which in many indicators has already surpassed the United States. Not only in terms of per capita GDP, the rapid development of its navy, of the armed forces overall, but also in artificial intelligence. And the Americans would very much like to develop joint productions in this sector, relying on the Chinese "mind" and financial assets. The dividing line, Taiwan, for the time being remains. But the potential benefit from joint projects outweighs. The United States has for the time being suspended the dispatch of a new batch of weapons to Taiwan worth 12 billion dollars. However they have not cancelled it completely. And this constitutes a carrot and stick policy. For Trump, the economic and scientific-technological sector has primary importance today, as in the United States the possession of scientific-technological achievements was always dominant, like for example the monopoly on the atomic bomb, which however lasted barely four years. Correspondingly, for the USSR, the monopoly on rocket and space technology, thanks to which we reached space first. Of equal, if not greater importance today is artificial intelligence. The Chinese here are not only at the same level as America, but also ahead of the rest of the world. The Americans realize that China has in certain points become "smarter" than them. The PRC creates technologies that the United States does not have and will not have in the near future. Here for America unpleasant surprises may arise, which it can avoid only with close relations with China, attracting Chinese scientists and engineers. Trump, for example, desired that up to 600,000 Chinese students study in American universities. All this, I repeat, is the position of big capital, which would like in this way to create a new bipolarity in the world. China also is interested in the formation of equal, long term economic relations.
Primary threat
According to Vasiliev, "China constitutes the primary threat. So, America must build its relations with it as it built them with the USSR during the period of the Cold War. Let us remember how serious an issue for us West Berlin once was. In my opinion, from there started the wave of dissolution of the USSR. First through the GDR, then through the countries of the Warsaw Pact. Today for China such a role is played by Taiwan. The United States uses it toward China as a kind of beacon of freedom and democracy, in contrast to the communist system of governance. Issues of human rights are raised, demonization of the CCP and its president Xi Jinping takes place. That is, socialism is a dead end path of development of humanity and with time in China it will collapse just as in the Soviet Union. So pressure must be exerted on China and its development must be contained by every means. These two approaches clash. Of course, all this they know very well in China and understand that the scales can at any moment tilt toward one side or the other. But today China has bet on Trump. In fact, a dominant role, in my opinion, was played by Xi Jinping. The strategic initiative was in his hands. He represented all of China, while Trump acted to a large extent for the reinforcement of his personal popularity, which is falling rapidly. He was interested in showing that only he can be an acceptable president and conduct this kind of negotiations. But the representatives of the deep state (the Democrats and certain cadres of the Republican party) support a Cold War model. That is, priority must be containment, threats, provocations and the destabilization of the political situation in China. Thus, American policy found itself at a bifurcation point."
The prediction
As the analyst points out, "it is very difficult to say what will happen. Trump, I repeat, has very strong resistance in the interior of the United States. There the ghost of Tiananmen still hovers. And there is a great temptation to present the whole of China as one large Tiananmen Square. In addition, these forces also have support. I mean the oligarchic class of China, which functions as a "fifth column", since for a capitalist the fundamental thing is the maximization of profit, regardless of political priorities. And the number of billionaires in China is the largest on the planet. On them relies the plan. But, from the statements made by Xi Jinping, China is ready not only for cooperation but also for confrontation. He hinted subtly to the United States not to dictate terms. These words are addressed to those who are ready to sell weapons to the islanders and say that Taiwan is an island of freedom and liberal democracy, hence a model for the whole of China. I think that Trump addressed Xi Jinping also with the aim to exert pressure on Russia for the termination of the conflict in Ukraine. The Americans are used to connecting such events with various anniversaries. For example, with the 250 years of America. On May 19–20 the official visit of the president of Russia Vladimir Putin to China will take place. Of course, it is important for us to understand deeper what Xi Jinping agreed with Trump and with the American billionaires. In addition, it is very possible for Russia to find a position of its own in the planned commercial agreements. Often, after all, it is precisely business that solves problems today that politicians cannot solve. And something more. We had overestimated in the past the disagreements in US–China relations. In reality they have far fewer disagreements than we think. Remember what Xi said: "not to fall into the Thucydides trap". This means not to allow themselves to be dragged into a cold or hot war. He called on Trump not to try to build relations on such principles. So today this is the basic position of US–China: better trade than war. The Democrats feared that Trump would "agree" on Taiwan for the sake of this cooperation. But this did not happen, something which may prove to be also a time bomb. Therefore, the basic conclusion is the following: Trump and Xi Jinping have for the time being created relations of trust. But how they will develop in the future only time will show."
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