A prolonged war in Iran increases the likelihood of rising inflation, while simultaneously forcing a slowdown in consumer demand.
All of this causes intense concern to the chief executive officer of the container shipping giant Maersk, who warns that this dangerous combination is already shaking the global maritime transport sector at the same time that inflation in OECD countries, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4% in March 2026, from 3.4% in February.
"The war in the Middle East has sounded a new alarm with significant disruptions, both in transport flows within and around the Middle East and in our energy supply," Chief Executive Officer Vincent Clerc told CNBC on Thursday (7/5).
"We are an extremely energy-intensive sector and this has created an entirely new set of conditions that we must now manage, something that will have a significant impact in the second and third quarters."
Maersk is at the forefront of the energy shock, as it is directly linked to fuel costs and the global supply chain, functioning as a harbinger of developments in how the global economy will cope with extended energy disruptions.
The Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage through which one fifth of the world's oil transits, remains virtually closed throughout the war in Iran, driving and maintaining oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel.
The price stood at approximately 105 dollars on Friday (8/5), significantly higher than the pre-war levels of 70 dollars, as the market attempts to evaluate conflicting signals around potential peace talks between the US and Iran, which could restore the operation of the commercial corridor.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs had predicted that, as long as the disruptions in supply chains continue, oil prices may remain elevated until 2027.
Just two months after the onset of the crisis, the consequences are already visible, with a characteristic example being Spirit Airlines, which suspended its operations, unable to cope with the rising cost of aviation fuel.
Now, Maersk, the second largest shipping company globally, with a fleet of 700 vessels and transporting approximately 14% of global containers, states that the prolonged war is already affecting the operation of the supply chain.
Increase in cost
The company had already suspended since March two key vessel routes connecting the Far East with the Middle East and the Middle East with Europe.
On Thursday, Clerc confirmed that one of Maersk's commercial vessels managed to transit through the Strait of Hormuz with US military protection, however the company still has six vessels trapped in the Gulf.
Clerc explained that the rise in energy costs burdens the company by an additional 500 million dollars monthly and, although Maersk is implementing cost-containment strategies, its customers, from small businesses to multinational groups, will need to shoulder part of the burden.
"There are limits to how much we can reduce costs, but it is necessary to pass part of these increases on to customers, because this is such a large burden that we cannot absorb it on our own," he mentioned.
The energy shock has caused widespread concerns about a new rise in inflation.
Officials of the Federal Reserve, among whom is also the president of the St. Louis Fed, Alberto Musalem, estimate that the persistently high energy prices are reminiscent of the pandemic period, when global supply chain disruptions after the outbreak of Covid-19 contributed to the skyrocketing of inflation.
Pressures on supply chains increased the cost of producing goods, being responsible for approximately 60% of inflation in the US during the period 2021-2022.
Gasoline prices already average over 4.50 dollars per gallon, compared to just 3.15 dollars a year ago, an increase of 43%.
"Inflation is running perceptibly above our target," Musalem stated at an event this week. "We face risks both on the employment side and on the inflation side. In my assessment, the risks are now shifting more toward the inflation side."
Maersk announced on Thursday (7/5) its first-quarter results, recording a revenue decrease of 2.6%, to 13 billion dollars, while operating profits fell by almost 75%, to 340 million dollars. The company maintained its forecast for its operating results for the full year unchanged, estimating that they will range from a loss of 1.5 billion dollars to profits of 1 billion dollars.
Concerns over demand destruction
Clerc expressed concern that the ongoing pressures on consumers increase the likelihood of "demand destruction", meaning a lasting decrease in demand for specific products due to supply constraints.
A broader slowdown could threaten the overall volume of container transport across the entire shipping sector.
Last month, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) recorded the first signs of this phenomenon: global oil demand is now projected to decrease by 80,000 barrels daily in 2026. In March, the IEA predicted an increase in demand by 730,000 barrels daily for this year.
"As part of these increases ultimately reaches the final consumer, will we see demand destruction at the consumption level and, subsequently, will this slowdown be transmitted to the entire supply chain with weaker demand in the second half of the year?" Clerc wondered. "This is something we are monitoring extremely closely, because it could completely change the equation regarding the way this crisis will affect the global supply chain and specifically our sector."
Although Clerc's concerns are already reflected in the first available data, Ryan Kellogg, an energy and environmental economist and professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, underlined that it remains uncertain whether the global oil market will enter a phase of demand destruction, a development that usually functions as a long-term negative factor.
Kellogg had previously stated to Fortune that such a development could accelerate the transition from internal combustion engine cars toward the production of electric vehicles, while also causing volatility in other critical minerals, in the medium term creating "economic pressures".
"It is entirely possible that we have entered a new era, during which oil supply from the Persian Gulf region is no longer as stable and reliable as we considered in the past, a fact that makes diversification away from it logical," he noted. "There is capability for adaptation, but this has a cost."
OECD: inflation at 4% in March 2026, from 3.4% in February
Inflation in OECD countries, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4% in March 2026, from 3.4% in February.
The rise was mainly due to the significant acceleration of energy inflation.
Headline inflation rose in most OECD countries, remained stable in a small number of countries, and fell only in Slovenia and Turkey.
Energy inflation stood at 8.1%, the highest level since February 2023, recording an increase in the majority of member states, including several countries with double-digit percentages.
Only a few countries recorded a drop or stabilization of energy prices.
Food inflation fell in most of the OECD, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained broadly stable.
In the G7 countries, headline inflation rose to 2.8% in March, from 2.1% in February, mainly due to the significant acceleration of energy inflation.
All G7 economies recorded higher inflation, with notable increases in France, Germany, and the US.
Despite the increases, energy inflation remained negative in Japan and Italy, due to government support measures.
Core inflation continued to constitute the key driver of rising prices in the whole of the G7.
In the eurozone, inflation rose to 2.6% in March, the highest level since July 2024, owing to the strong recovery of energy prices.
Food inflation fell to the lowest level since the beginning of 2025, while core inflation remained stable.
Preliminary estimates show a further rise in April, with a new strong acceleration of energy inflation as the primary driver.
In the whole of the G20, inflation rose marginally to 4% in March.
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