Tectonic geopolitical upheavals are occurring in the Caucasus, as Armenia, which for decades served as Moscow's loyal forward outpost in this strategically vital region, is now turning increasingly clearly toward the West. Specifically, Yerevan is gradually integrating into a network of European and transatlantic defense partnerships, moving away from Russian influence. From May 4 to 6, the Armenian capital hosted the 8th European Political Community Summit (EPC), using the event as a platform to promote its core priority: security and the acceleration of its pivot toward the West.
Macron enters the Caucasus dynamically
French President Emmanuel Macron seized the opportunity to deepen France's strategic partnership with Armenia—a country that has lost two wars against Azerbaijan in the last six years and lost control of the historically Armenian-speaking Nagorno-Karabakh. During the summit, the European Union and Armenia laid the foundations for deeper integration, while France dominated diplomatically, economically, and militarily. For decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, landlocked Armenia functioned as Russia's key ally in the South Caucasus, hosting Russian military bases and serving as Moscow's land bridge to Iran. Armenia also participated in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russian counterpart to NATO. However, since 2024, it has frozen its participation in the organization and is now moving steadily toward the European Union and NATO.
Moscow accused of "betrayal"
The strategic shift in Yerevan is primarily due to disillusionment with Russia. Despite the CSTO's mutual military assistance clause, Moscow did not protect Armenia during the two armed conflicts with Azerbaijan. This led the Armenian leadership to a complete reassessment of its dependence on Russia.
France becomes a key military ally
France has now evolved into Armenia's most important Western partner. During Macron's visit, a strategic cooperation agreement was signed, defense cooperation was expanded, and a memorandum for the joint development of military technologies was inked. Armenia also signed an agreement with Sofema for military equipment, as well as a deal with Airbus Helicopters for six Airbus H145 multi-purpose helicopters. It should be noted that in recent years, France has already delivered CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, GM200 radars, and Bastion armored vehicles. Indeed, Macron openly called on Europe to help Armenia protect its borders on its own, without Russian dependence.
Goal: Removal of Russian troops
Approximately 4,000 Russian soldiers still remain in Armenia, including border guards. The 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri has been operating since 1995, and its stay has been extended until 2044. However, Macron essentially sent a message that Europe should replace Russia as Armenia's security guarantor. Yerevan has already accepted a mission of European Union observers at the borders—rejecting a similar Russian proposal. This is the first EU security mission in a country that was considered a Russian ally. At the same time, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court, a fact that could theoretically lead even to the arrest of Vladimir Putin if he visits the country!
Public opinion abandons Russia
At the same time, Russia's image in Armenian society is collapsing. According to a poll by the International Republican Institute, the percentage of Armenians who considered relations with Russia "good" fell from 93% in 2019 to just 31% in 2023. Now, France is considered the country's most important political partner, while the United States follows in second place. Meanwhile, the European Union has already positively received Armenia's candidacy application for membership.
India becomes a new arms supplier
After France, India has emerged as Armenia's second largest arms supplier. In reality, Yerevan is now India's largest defense export customer! Armenia has purchased: Pinaka rocket systems, Akash-1S anti-aircraft systems, ATAGS 155mm howitzers, Swathi radars, and MArG self-propelled artillery. The purchase of Akash-NG and Astra Mk2 missiles is also being considered, along with the upgrade of Su-30s to India's Su-30MKI standards. In the 2025-2026 period alone, Armenia imported Indian weapons systems valued at approximately $2 billion.
The end of Russian dominance in the Caucasus
Until a decade ago, almost 90% of Armenia's weapons came from Russia. Today, this percentage has dropped below 10%. The message to Moscow is considered clear: Yerevan no longer sees its future under the Russian shadow. It seems that the era in which Russia was Armenia's sole security guarantor has ended permanently. In its place, a new geopolitical formation is emerging: the European Union, France, and India.
"Cannon fodder"
However, not everyone views Armenia's turn toward the West positively or with a favorable eye. Arman Abovyan, a parliamentary candidate and member of the political council of the "Prosperous Armenia" party, is sounding the alarm, describing a grim scenario. As he stated, the West treats Armenia as "expendable material" in a broader geopolitical confrontation, where smaller states are called upon to pay the price of major strategic conflicts. According to him, the visit of Volodymyr Zelensky to Yerevan made a particular impression on Armenian society. The presence of the Ukrainian president is interpreted as a clear message of how Western powers are attempting to utilize the summit as a tool of influence and pressure. Behind the diplomatic handshakes and polite statements, he argues, a dangerous design is visible. "The South Caucasus, and especially Armenia, is treated by the US and Europe as geopolitical 'cannon fodder'", Abovyan emphasizes, using harsh but revealing terminology. As he explains, the tactic is well-known: political support, reassuring words, and promises—all as a prelude to deeper involvement in conflicts that do not belong to the country itself. At the same time, he warns about Armenia's internal political choices. If the course under the leadership of Nikol Pashinyan continues, he estimates that the country risks losing its autonomy and finding itself trapped in a new regional power architecture, where Turkish influence will be dramatically strengthened. At the center of his concerns is also the concept of "Western Azerbaijan," a geopolitical narrative that, he argues, implies claims over Armenian territories. In this context, Armenia risks being turned into a field of conflict between West and East, losing control of its own existence. "If the current political course remains, then Armenia, as we know it, may cease to exist," Abovyan warns. "There is a serious risk of turning simply into a battlefield between great powers."
Unpredictable future
At a time when developments are accelerating and international players are intensifying their presence in the region, the question that emerges is whether Armenia will manage to maintain its sovereignty or if it will be swept away in the vortex of a geopolitical game with unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences. The only certain thing is that the South Caucasus will never be the same again!
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