There are serious indications that something major is being prepared in the coming 24 hours on the Ukrainian front. In anticipation of the Victory Day celebrations on May 9 in Russia, the Ukrainians have for several days been carrying out unprecedented attacks against targets on Russian soil located even 1,500 kilometers from the border… In the last 24 hours alone, the Ukrainian armed forces conducted the most massive drone attack they have launched against Russia since the beginning of the war. Russian analysts and experts warn that this is a... rehearsal, a rehearsal for an "attack" on Moscow during the parade in Red Square for the victory in World War II… Should such an event occur, it would be a strike of immense symbolic, and not only symbolic, importance… However, as Moscow has signaled, in this case, Victory Day in Russia... will turn into Apocalypse Day in Ukraine… But is such a thing realistic?
Massive attack with 347 drones
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense forces shot down 347 Ukrainian drones within 11 hours. The Ukrainian targets: the regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, Volgograd, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Novgorod, Oryol, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver, and Tula, the Moscow district, the Krasnodar region, the republics of Adygea, Kalmykia, and Crimea, as well as over the sea areas of the Azov, Caspian, and Black Seas. In several regions of Russia, a missile threat alert was declared. Sirens wailed in major cities — from Cheboksary and Kazan to Naberezhnye Chelny and Samara. And all this within 11 hours. This is because attacks had preceded in Dzhankoy, Sevastopol, Crimea, Cheboksary, Belgorod, etc., where dozens of civilians were killed and injured. And this, in fact, at the mo
ment when Zelensky had declared a ceasefire – since the dawn of May 6 – which, as he said, Russia violated with attacks against Ukraine…
Terror
According to Zelensky, the violation of the ceasefire by the Russians means that Ukraine is also not going to observe the ceasefire announced by Russia for May 8 and 9. Although in his statements today he said that Ukraine will act symmetrically... to the ceasefire declared by Russia... "In response to Russian strikes, we will use our own long-range capabilities and, in response to Russia's readiness to move toward diplomacy, we will follow the path of diplomacy," Zelensky stated. Earlier, Zelensky had stated that Kyiv will decide on May 8 how it will act during Victory Day. It is noted that the Ukrainians have threatened to send drones over Moscow during the parade, pointing out however that they will simply pass through… to hit other targets on Russian soil… although in previous statements Zelensky had not ruled out the scenario of an attack on Moscow… This is a provocation that Russia is not going to tolerate… It has already warned that if the security of Moscow is disrupted, a crushing blow will follow – Russian MPs have even spoken of the Oreshnik and Burevestnik missile systems – on Kyiv, and indeed on important centers of power, such as the presidential palace, the parliament, the Ministry of Defense, etc.
Scenarios for an attack even without permission from Zelensky
Many Russian experts wonder, however, how realistic such a scenario is, when for four years of the "special military operation" Russia avoided striking Kyiv. The retired Russian FSB lieutenant colonel, Andrey Popov, estimates that the terrorism against civilians by the Ukrainian armed forces shows that Zelensky — or, more accurately, his Western handlers — seek an escalation of the conflict. For this reason, it is very likely that there will be provocations on Victory Day from the side of Ukraine. "I accept the possibility that a provocation from the Ukrainian side could take place even without Zelensky's knowledge and against his will. The number of agents, mainly British, within the Ukrainian elites and armed forces is sufficient to organize sabotage or a terrorist act without his permission and to violate the May 9 ceasefire," says Popov.
Crushing retaliation
Following a potential provocation from Kyiv, Russian retaliation will follow, as warned by the Ministry of Defense — of this there is no doubt. By announcing this potential development of events, the Russian command burned its bridges. In the event of a terrorist act, there will be no other options for reaction. Besides, Russian society has long considered that the time has come for Bankova – the Ukrainian presidency – to be hit, while the military personnel themselves desire it. They are only waiting for the "green light" from the Commander-in-Chief. "If Ukraine decides to violate the ceasefire, there will be a response. And not an ordinary one, as Kyiv is used to, but an asymmetric one. It will not be a single strike, but multiple strikes on the Ukrainian capital, and indeed not only on command centers. I do not rule out the possibility that the Russian retaliation plans also include the elimination of Zelensky," the expert underlined.
They will not reach Red Square
The most symbolic targets for Kyiv – the Kremlin, the Crimean Bridge, Sevastopol – are reliably protected. However, there is no reason to have absolute certainty that they are completely invulnerable. The president of the international Association of Veterans of the anti-terrorist unit "Alpha", Sergey Goncharov, stated that Moscow constitutes a special zone of responsibility for the anti-aircraft defense and the special services, which is why he considers it rather unlikely that Ukrainian drones will reach Red Square on May 9, without however ruling out such a possibility: "There may be sabotage or terrorist acts, because the opponent wants to create problems for us so that it becomes news. And Kyiv, unfortunately, possesses such capabilities. I do not believe the provocation will happen in the area of Red Square - our regions should be primarily concerned," said Goncharov.
We will not destroy all of Kyiv
However, the expert doubts that Moscow will respond in a way that will destroy the entire center of Ukraine. And he explains why. In December 2025, Vladimir Putin had stated regarding the methods of conducting the "special military operation" that Russian forces act in Ukraine "with surgical precision, carefully" and that "this is not a war in the modern literal sense of the word." And Kyiv exploits this stance.
Attack with 1,000 drones
"Enemy drones already reach as far as the Urals, while every day Ukraine launches more than 500. Do you understand what this means? My people who are fighting say that 100 drones make the sky black, as if it has filled with a flock of birds. If they launch 1,000 drones toward Moscow alone, no security system and anti-aircraft defense will be able to deal with it — we will shoot down 999, but one will pass through and hit those who will be sitting in the stands. Can you imagine what celebration will break out in our enemies' camp?" Goncharov points out.
"In the West they will give a standing ovation"
As he says, the issue is not only that the Ukrainians will attempt to spoil specifically Victory Day. The point is that Ukraine is conducting an ethnic war, systematically destroying anything Russian — both on everyday days and on holidays. The Russian military analyst, Vlad Shlepchenko, reminded that the murders of civilians constitute a perfectly normal practice for Kyiv since 2014, regardless of the date on the calendar: "Ukraine, just as it started shooting and burning people at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa, continues to this day, to the delight of the Western elites," says Shlepchenko, while the political scientist Alexey Yaroshenko underlined that these elites will applaud terrorist strikes against Russia on Victory Day.
Hero in the West
"Zelensky and the terrorist gang of war criminals and scum surrounding him stop at nothing in order to hit us — for their goals they are ready to kill their own citizens, and even more so ours. The Western elites expect this, they desire it passionately. Political reasons push Zelensky to hit Moscow and become a hero in the West. And technical limitations do not exist — drones in huge quantities reach the most diverse points of Russia," Yaroshenko underlined, emphasizing that: "This reality we must accept and understand that there are neither moral nor political limitations in the case of sabotage on Victory Day. When it comes to protection from terrorist strikes of the Kyiv regime, there should be no pangs of conscience." "Even if this provocation does not happen, a powerful strike of revenge must be prepared, so that Zelensky is punished even just for the thought that Russia can be hit on one of its most important sacred holidays. For this, he and all his gang must be punished, with targeted strikes against these subhuman beings," Yaroshenko said.
Lavrov's phone call to Rubio
The fears about what is coming are also confirmed by the telephone communication that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, had with his American counterpart, Marco Rubio. The communication - the first after a long period of time that took place one day after the ultimatum of the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding what awaits the center of Kyiv in case of an attempt to strike Moscow on May 9 - can lead to various thoughts. Among these is that the approximate disposition of forces and the nature of the specific consequences were made known in advance, so that the other side does not panic in case of launches of various ballistic systems from the Russian side.
They are not leaving Kyiv…
"The Ukrainian propaganda channels continue massively to reproduce the line given to them since the day before yesterday — that since the Russians did not react to their proposal for an indefinite ceasefire from midnight of the previous day, they consider they have full freedom of movement, even in relation to the parade in Moscow on May 9. Everyone is celebrating with enthusiasm, but there does not seem to be an intention of abandoning Kyiv. They likely believe that the Ministry of Defense is simply making noise without substance. A belief that can hardly be characterized as anything else beyond extreme naivety," reports the channel "AdequatZ" on Telegram.
All the cards…
All observers are certain that Ukraine will try to play all its cards, so that subsequently it can demand from Russia to respond with all the means at its disposal. And on a communication level, every strike on the outskirts of Kyiv the Ukrainian side will present as a terrible terrorist attack against civilians… It must also be taken into account that Kyiv is also protected by powerful anti-aircraft defense systems, for exactly the same reasons as Moscow. This, of course, increases the consumption of offensive means, writes the military aviator Fighterbomber: "But all these sufferings and dilemmas of choice are solved by one or, better, two Iskanders with a special warhead."
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