Brutal backstage maneuvers: Scenarios for a US-Iran deal involving Hormuz opening and lifting of naval blockade – Trump at an impasse, searching for victory

The diplomatic thriller between Iran and the US continues without end. While Iranian officials categorically deny a deal exists and President Trump suggests an agreement is possible, Al Arabiya, citing Pakistani sources, claims both sides have agreed to ease the naval blockade of Iran in exchange for the gradual restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Arabiya further asserts that significant progress is expected in the coming hours regarding the trapped ships in the Strait of Hormuz, estimated at approximately 1,600. This information remains officially unconfirmed by Iran, highlighting the intense behind-the-scenes activity currently underway.
In this chaotic environment dominated by fake news and propaganda wars, every new development is met with intense suspicion unless confirmed by both parties. Top Iranian officials dismissed yesterday's Axios report regarding a one-page, 14-point memorandum between the US and Iran as false. Simultaneously, Mojtaba Khamenei’s representative signaled that Iran speaks from a position of strength, while the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) sent a clear message: Iran will not negotiate its nuclear program with anyone, and control of the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly in its hands.

Al Arabiya: Iran and US agreement on naval blockade and Hormuz

Iran and the United States have reached agreements to ease the naval blockade of Iran in exchange for the gradual restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Saudi network Al Arabiya, citing Pakistani sources.
"Agreements have been reached regarding the easing of the blockade in exchange for the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz," the channel's sources claimed. Intensive contacts are reportedly ongoing, and "significant progress is expected in the coming hours regarding the vessels blocked in the Strait."
However, Al Arabiya sources clarified that there are currently no agreements for direct meetings between Iranian and American officials, as communications continue through intermediaries. The process is reportedly moving without obstacles, and Iran may deliver its response to Pakistani mediators as early as today.

At least 1,550 ships trapped

At least 1,550 ships are currently awaiting Iranian permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to Behnam Saidi, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee. "They know they do not have the right to move without permission," Saidi stated. According to Saidi, daily traffic through the Strait previously ranged from 130 to 140 ships, but maritime circulation has now plummeted by 95%. This bottleneck has created a massive logistical crisis in global shipping routes.

Optimism from Pakistan

Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed news of a potential deal between Iran and the US, adding it would not disclose further details at this stage. "As mediators, we will not lose the trust of both sides by revealing details," a statement cited by Al Jazeera read. The ministry added that while there is no information on which country might host a new round of talks, "it would be an honor for us if this took place in Islamabad." However, it clarified that Pakistan is not currently preparing direct talks between American and Iranian officials.

Iran's response due today, May 7

Iran is expected to deliver its response to the US 14-point plan to Pakistani mediators today, Thursday, May 7. Iranian sources emphasize that, at this stage, nuclear negotiations are off the table; the discussion is limited to ending hostilities on all fronts.
Iran is demanding guarantees directly from the UN Security Council, the lifting of sanctions, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. If these are met, Tehran declares it is ready to discuss its nuclear program in a second phase.

Meanwhile, Iran has established a new body called the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to manage the Strait. It claims the maritime regime has changed, and every transiting vessel must now communicate with Iranian authorities.
Some sources suggest current negotiations have brought the two sides closer than ever to ending the war. There is hope this optimism is justified, as the human and economic cost of the conflict is enormous and rising.

However, Trump has repeatedly claimed in recent weeks that a "deal" was ready and that Tehran had accepted all his demands—only for reality to prove otherwise against an unmoved adversary.

Pezeshkian's meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated he recently met with Mojtaba Khamenei. "What impressed me most... was the approach, the gaze, and the humble and deeply intimate stance of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution," Pezeshkian said, as reported by state broadcaster IRIB.
Hajji Sadeghi, the representative of the Supreme Leader to the IRGC, stressed the importance of unity, stating: "If you go to negotiations, go from the position of a victorious and angry nation." According to the Tasnim news agency, the representative urged: "Maintain this unity and do not allow infiltrators to create rifts in this strong barrier. If our rights are not given, we will take them in practice, specifically in the Strait of Hormuz."

Mohsen Rezaei: We are not negotiating our nuclear program with anyone

Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the IRGC and current member of the Expediency Council, stated that Iran "will not negotiate the nuclear issue with anyone" and that control of the Strait of Hormuz must remain with Tehran.
"If control of the Strait passes out of Iran's hands, the enemy will use it again as a weapon against Iran," Rezaei warned, per ISNA. He added that foreign forces—whether American or European—must leave the region. He claimed the US is seeking a "show" around the Strait before withdrawing, something he asserted Iran would not permit. Rezaei also insisted the US must compensate Iran for damages caused during the conflict.

Trump at an impasse

If words could win wars, Donald Trump's conflict with Iran would have ended long ago. However, the president remains unable to find an exit from a war that was supposed to last six weeks but is now entering its 10th week. Trump is caught in two traps of his own making—one geopolitical and one domestic. Iran’s leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and its refusal to back down mean Trump cannot end the war on acceptable military terms. Domestically, with an approval rating near 30%, gas prices over $4.50 per gallon, and growing public opposition, he lacks the political capital to sustain the conflict. This reality explains his persistently optimistic statements about peace talks despite the gridlock.

The last hope

The last hope rests on a one-page memorandum currently being negotiated through Pakistan, as reported by CNN. The document would end the war and trigger a 30-day period to resolve core disputes. This may suit Trump's preference for simplicity. However, a one-page text seems insufficient to resolve nearly half a century of US-Tehran friction, including complex nuclear issues, missile programs, and proxy networks.

Furthermore, Iran's demands for massive sanctions relief and its desire to profit from oil and gas transit through the Strait of Hormuz—which it has turned into a strategic advantage—remain significant hurdles.

The new American operation that lasted only a few hours

Washington's war effort has been characterized by strategic confusion and sudden shifts. For instance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned on Tuesday that the war—"Operation Epic Fury"—had ended. He then spent an hour promoting a new operation conceived hours earlier by Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, within hours, "Project Freedom" was paused after escorting only a few ships.

Trump claimed he was trying to bolster peace talks, but the rapid adoption and abandonment of the strategy failed to send a message of resolve. This was another example of the "silver bullet" strategy: the belief that one decisive action can force Iran to break.

Iranians do not bend

US and Israeli strikes initially led to the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, followed by an extensive air campaign and a blockade of Iranian ports. Yet, none of these moves destabilized the Iranian regime. A new generation of hardliners has filled the ranks of their predecessors. There are no signs of a fracture within the IRGC that would signal a collapse. In a war Tehran views as existential, mere survival is seen as a form of victory.

Skirmish...

Those expecting clear strategy from the president were disappointed by his Wednesday remarks to a group of military mothers. Trump appeared vague, downplaying a complex operation involving thousands of troops and billions of dollars.
"We are in—I call it a skirmish, because that’s what it is, a skirmish. And we're doing incredibly well, just like we did in Venezuela," Trump stated. He claimed things in Iran were moving "very smoothly," though the comparison to the brief Venezuela operation raised eyebrows. Nearly 70 days into the war, the president's tendency toward improvisation and obfuscation did not resemble a leader who knows how to successfully exit the conflict.

No strategic success

This war serves as a lesson in how smaller nations can resist superpowers through asymmetric warfare. While the US likely damaged Iran's conventional forces and military industry, a clear victory remains elusive.

Trump’s refusal to deploy tens of thousands of ground troops—an act of restraint—meant a definitive military win was never within reach. Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz has dealt a blow to global economies and increased political pressure on Trump.

Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund noted the "huge gap between US operational capabilities, which are significant, and the difficulty of achieving a strategic outcome that most would consider a success."

"This conflict is not over"

This gap explains why Trump cannot force a quick victory. There has been no internal uprising in Iran, nor has Tehran abandoned its nuclear ambitions or surrendered its enriched uranium. Anja Manuel of the Aspen Security Forum told CNN: "This conflict is not over." She noted that regardless of operation names or ceasefires, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices are high, and American companies are suffering.

How the US negotiating position was weakened

The weaknesses in the US position were revealed by Marco Rubio, even while he maintained that the US "holds all the cards." Rubio stated the US "preference" is to reopen the Strait with no mines and no tolls.
However, the Strait was open before the war began. Iran has now discovered its power as a deterrent tool. The fact that this waterway is now a central negotiation point shows the strategic balance has shifted toward Tehran.
While a quick solution is vital for troops and civilians, Trump's desire for theatrical diplomatic success and the reliance on a one-page memo raise doubts about his administration's competence.

Mohamad Elmasry: US is more serious about a deal

The US shows signs of being more serious about a deal, but questions remain regarding what compromises it will make, according to analyst Mohamad Elmasry. "We don't know exactly what's in the 14-point proposal," he noted. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated negotiations must be in good faith, not an attempt at coercion. Elmasry told Al Jazeera this might be a sign the proposal does not meet Iranian requirements.
"Trump has been trying for weeks to force a form of Iranian capitulation, but I don't think he will succeed," Elmasry argued. He suggested Iran might include Lebanon in any final peace agreement with the US.

CNN: Nearing a deal

Despite claims from Iranian officials like Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf that Axios reports were "fake news," US media insists both sides are close to a memorandum to end the war. CNN, citing a regional source, reported that the White House received positive signals Tuesday from Pakistani mediators that Iranians are moving toward compromise, though some officials remain cautious.

"Very good talks"

Trump touted the diplomatic effort Wednesday, saying the US had "very good talks" with Iran. A one-page plan under discussion would declare an end to the war and start a 30-day negotiation period. This period would cover thorny issues like nuclear enrichment, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and future security in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is expected to respond to the proposal today, May 7.

What the memorandum includes

The plan reportedly includes a moratorium on uranium enrichment for over 10 years; a previous US proposal asked for 20. It also requires Iran to ship out its highly enriched uranium, though details are still being debated. Trump told PBS News that terms would include transferring material to the United States and Tehran pledging not to operate underground sites. However, the idea of moving material to the US previously caused talks involving JD Vance to collapse.

Examining the proposal

Iran is still reviewing the latest US proposal, according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei. "Once its views are finalized, Iran will convey them to the Pakistani side," Baghaei told ISNA on Wednesday.

Hardliners are strengthening

A regional source told CNN that the more the US pushed "Project Freedom" and "Operation Epic Fury," the more Iranian hardliners gained influence. Trump’s priority is a diplomatic exit and reopening the Strait.
However, Trump also issued a new threat on Truth Social, writing that if Tehran doesn't reach a deal, "the bombing starts" at a higher level of intensity than before. Officials had hoped to finalize a framework involving sanctions relief and the unfreezing of billions of dollars. This was the goal of JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner during their planned second round of talks in Pakistan, which previously stalled due to divisions among Iranian leaders.

Wall Street Journal: US wants 20-year enrichment halt

The US wants Iran to stop uranium enrichment for 20 years, according to the Wall Street Journal. Sources say Washington is also demanding the delivery of all enriched material and the dismantling of facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Washington is also seeking a ban on underground nuclear activities and inspections on demand. These stringent requirements aim to ensure Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon in the future.

Mark Kimmitt: Trump's demands are unrealistic

Former Assistant Secretary of State Mark Kimmitt argues that Trump's demand for zero enrichment is unrealistic and unlikely to be accepted by Tehran. "I don't believe it is a realistic proposal," Kimmitt told Al Jazeera. He noted Iranians will likely insist on the right to enrich to 3.67%, as permitted under non-proliferation treaties. Even the 2015 JCPOA allowed some level of enrichment.
Kimmitt suggested Trump might still present a diplomatic victory if Iran agrees to a temporary suspension. "If the president gets them to suspend all enrichment activities for a period, he will present it as a major win," Kimmitt concluded.

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