Discussions between the US and Iran regarding the war in the Middle East are evolving into a high-stakes thriller, as initial optimism for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough—which led to a collapse in the oil price below $100—gives way to an explosive confrontation. While the White House leaked information about a historic 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war, Tehran responded with an angry denial, speaking of "communication games" and market manipulation.
For his part, the American president, Donald Trump, in a social media post, issued a new ultimatum to Tehran: Agreement or bombings. With eyes set on the American president's upcoming trip to China on May 14-15, 2026, the coming hours are considered the most critical of the decade, with the international community watching with bated breath as a region balances dangerously between a fragile ceasefire and all-out war.
Trump's new ultimatum
US President Donald Trump issued a new warning to Iran, stating that if they do not reach an agreement, the "bombing begins" and will be at a "higher level and intensity than before."
"Assuming that Iran agrees to give what has been agreed, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary 'Epic Fury' will terminate and the highly effective blockade will allow the Strait of Hormuz to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they do not agree, the bombing begins and, unfortunately, it will be at a much higher level and intensity than before," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
The US president left the door open for a deal, which he said would end the US military operation against the country, but added that it is probably a "big assumption" that the two sides can reach an agreement.
In fact, in statements to the New York Post and asked if a new round of negotiations with Pakistan is on the horizon, requiring the presence of media on the spot, Trump replied "I don't think so," adding that it is still too early to talk about a deal. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Tuesday (5/5/2026) that Operation "Epic Fury" had already ended. "The operation is over. Epic Fury, as the president informed Congress, we are done with this stage," Rubio characteristically stated during a press conference.
Iran rejects claims of a deal with the US
At the same time, however, Mohammad Marandi, an advisor to the Iranian negotiating team, in a particularly sharp intervention, denounces the US for manipulation.
Specifically, Marandi rejected the Axios report, characterizing it as an attempt at "market manipulation." This interpretation suggests that Iran believes the leak aims to calm energy markets and lower oil prices, which have skyrocketed due to the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz.
Marandi's reference to an imminent "major US attack" before Trump's trip to Beijing (scheduled for May 14-15, 2026) shows deep suspicion, as Iran estimates that the US may seek to "clear" the front in the Middle East by military means so that Trump can attend the meeting with Xi Jinping from a position of absolute power.
The message from the IRGC
Regardless, specifically for the Strait of Hormuz, the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) signal that safe passage is possible under "new procedures" following the suspension of "Project Freedom" by Trump.
This appears to be Iran's first reaction to Washington's decision to suspend Operation "Project Freedom," a mission aimed at guiding commercial ships through the Strait, which remains closed. The US began the operation on Sunday but stopped it in the early hours of Wednesday, citing progress in peace talks.
The statement did not clarify what the new procedures are but thanked the captains and shipowners located in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman for their cooperation regarding passage through the channel "in accordance with Iran's regulations."
Iran has claimed sovereignty over Hormuz and announced plans to impose tolls on ships for safe passage through this strategic route. Many international leaders have warned that such a plan would be illegal under maritime law and would constitute a dangerous precedent.
The... framework agreement
Earlier, Axios—citing information from American officials—reported information regarding a 14-point framework agreement (MOU) between the US and Iran aimed at establishing a... roadmap for more detailed nuclear negotiations.
According to the same information, among other provisions, the agreement would include Iran's commitment to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, US agreement to lift sanctions and release billions of frozen Iranian funds, and the lifting of restrictions by both sides regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Many of the terms defined in the memorandum would depend on reaching a final agreement, leaving open the possibility of resuming war or prolonged uncertainty, where the "hot" war will have stopped, but nothing will have truly been resolved.
It is noted that after the information about the MOU, oil prices collapsed below $100 with losses exceeding 12% for American crude (WTI) and 10% for Brent.
However, after Trump's post and the information from Iran, losses were limited, with Brent futures at -5.89% at $103.40 and WTI futures at $98.11 with a 7% drop.
Suspicion in the US
The White House believes—according to Axios information—that the Iranian leadership is divided and it may be difficult to reach a consensus between the different factions. Some American officials remain skeptical about whether even an initial agreement will be reached.
After all, American officials have expressed optimism for an agreement at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war but have not yet reached one. However, the two American officials who spoke to Axios stated that the American president's decision to suspend "Project Freedom" and avoid the collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on the progress of the talks.
The background
The one-page 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is—according to the same information—the subject of negotiation between Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
In its current form, the memorandum would declare the end of the war in the region and the beginning of a 30-day negotiation period for a detailed agreement on opening the straits, restricting Iran's nuclear program, and lifting US sanctions. These negotiations could take place in Islamabad or Geneva, according to American officials.
Iran's restrictions on shipping through the Strait and the US naval blockade would be lifted gradually during this 30-day period, according to an American official. If negotiations collapse, American forces will be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, the official stated.
The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is the subject of active negotiation, with three sources stating it will be at least 12 years and one specifying 15 as a likely end point. Iran proposed a 5-year moratorium and the US demanded a 20-year one.
The US wants to introduce a provision according to which any Iranian violation in enrichment would extend the moratorium, the source reported. Iran will be able to enrich at the low level of 3.67% after its expiration.
Iran would commit in the memorandum to never seeking a nuclear weapon nor conducting activities related to weapon construction. According to an American official, the parties are discussing a clause according to which Iran would commit to not operating underground nuclear facilities.
Iran would also commit to an enhanced inspection regime, including emergency checks by UN inspectors.
At the same time, the US would commit, as part of the memorandum, to the gradual lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran and the gradual release of billions of dollars of Iranian funds frozen worldwide.
Nevertheless, according to the same information, two sources with knowledge of the matter also claimed that Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country, a key US priority which Tehran has rejected until now. One source stated that an option being discussed is the transfer of the material to the US.
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