The war in the Middle East appears to be evolving into a high-stakes game of poker, with information emerging from the involved parties being entirely contradictory. The Israeli news outlet YNET reveals that US President Donald Trump, through his closest associates Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, has not only opened a channel of communication with the Ayatollah regime without Israel's knowledge but is also proceeding with the de facto recognition of Mojtaba Khamenei as the successor to power. This revelation overturns the narrative of "maximum pressure" and regime change. Instead of the collapse envisioned by the White House and Mossad, the US is reportedly sitting at the negotiating table with the "heir" of the Islamic revolution. Furthermore, according to the same reports, the ground is being prepared for a meeting between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later this week. In any case, if this information—notably originating from a seemingly sidelined Israel—is accurate, then the US is legitimizing those it intended to overthrow.
"Araghchi’s secret message to Witkoff: 'We have the consent and blessing of Mojtaba'." This is the headline of the Ynet report, which also states: "Revelation: After Trump announced the talk channel that could lead to a deal, Iran rushed to deny it. However, a phone call between the Iranian Foreign Minister and Witkoff, with Kushner by his side, shows a different picture. The Iranian official confirmed that Khamenei’s son has taken the place of his killed father and made it clear that the successor 'approved closing the matter as soon as possible, provided our terms are met.' Israel was left out of the talks and learned of their existence by chance. The gaps between the sides remain large."
According to the same report, last Thursday will be recorded as a turning point in the war, symbolizing both what went right and what went less well in this conflict. It was a simple phone call, from one mobile phone in Tehran to another in the US. On one end of the line was the Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, and on the other was American mediator Steve Witkoff, accompanied by Donald Trump’s closest confidant, Jared Kushner. Senior representatives of two of the three countries involved in the war participated, while the third country, Israel, received no official briefing from its ally, the US. This may be due to Witkoff’s previous bad experience when he sent envoy Adam Boehler to negotiate with Hamas, and the matter leaked quickly to the media, leading Ron Dermer’s team to confront him at the White House. Despite the decision not to inform Israel, Jerusalem learned of the conversation through other sources.
Last night, when Trump decided to reveal the communication channel with Iran to the world—which until then was top secret, known to only a few even within his administration—Tehran rushed to categorically deny it. Iran was caught off guard by the rapid disclosure and perhaps, feeling in control recently, felt confident enough to put Trump in a difficult position, claiming he spoke to no one, that there is no dialogue because there is nothing to discuss, and that Trump simply backed down. "Despite Iranian denials, both American and Israeli sources—even though Israel did not participate in the contacts—confirmed the existence of the talks and part of their content, including the critical conversation last Thursday. Thus, the cross-referencing of information from different independent sources lends credibility to the events," Ynet reports. Communication between American mediators and the Iranian Foreign Minister continued throughout, but tension also accumulated. "In Iran, they believe the US deceived them in the last round of talks in Geneva when the direction toward war had already been shaped. However, even the experienced Iranian diplomat understood that there is no other way to end the war except through negotiations," the report emphasizes. This is exactly what he wanted to stress to American officials: "I am here having received the approval and blessing of Mojtaba Khamenei to close the matter as soon as possible, provided our terms are met," according to people familiar with the content of the talks.
An Israeli official explained that, on one hand, Araghchi wanted to show the US the stability of power in Iran—the exact opposite of what Washington and Jerusalem expected. On the other hand, he wanted to make it clear that he has full authorization from the leadership. "With these talks, the US essentially recognized the authority of the younger Khamenei," the Israeli news agency reports. The drama of the moment is immense for both sides: the US dreamed of the fall or change of the regime but is ultimately negotiating with the same Foreign Minister, now representing the new Supreme Leader. Witkoff conducted the talks from public spaces, with Kushner by his side. "On at least one occasion, on Thursday, he stood for a long time and spoke loudly, sharing details of the conversation with passers-by," according to the same report.
According to drafts exchanged, Iran is willing to offer roughly what it had agreed to in Geneva before the war: to discuss the transfer of high-grade enriched uranium to Russia, but it does not accept any discussion regarding ballistic missiles, nor to fully stop enrichment within the country. During the conversation, Witkoff raised his voice and stated that Trump made it clear there would be no enrichment on Iranian soil. The conversation left a momentum that continued until the revelation: an exchange of drafts and thoughts on reaching a conclusion by the end of the week. At the same time, there was concern in Israel about the outcome. When information reached Jerusalem about potential progress, the message seemed to be understood: Netanyahu stated in Hebrew that the war would continue as long as necessary, but in English, he said he believed it would end much sooner.
Trump's plan collapsed… At the beginning of the war, there were voices in the US who believed the regime in Iran would collapse quickly. Trump was one of the most ardent supporters of this view and one of the last to abandon this scenario. This assessment was based partly on Israeli analyses. For decades, the possibility of regime change in Iran had been examined, but most assessments concluded it was extremely difficult. Instead, the strategy was the weakening of the regime through sanctions and targeted operations. In recent years, however, there was a new belief that it might be feasible, with plans to provoke internal unrest in the event of war. "Ultimately, Trump’s vision for a quick operation that would lead to a change in leadership was not realized. The war continued without achieving clear goals, while creating new problems, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—something that was expected but nevertheless was not adequately addressed," according to the same report.
Scenario for a meeting between Vance and Araghchi: Currently, the US and Iran are trying to organize a meeting within the week, possibly between Vice President Vance and Araghchi. Until then, Iran is expected to direct its fire toward Israel instead of the Gulf states to intensify the rift between Israel and the US.
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