US President Trump has issued an ultimatum to the Persians, to the Iranians; if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by the dawn of Tuesday, March 24, 2026, the American military will strike Iran’s energy production. However, Trump’s plan belongs to the realm of foolishness.
Iran’s retaliation will destroy the Gulf countries
Iran, which has a tradition of defiance, responded that if such a scenario unfolds, it will begin to retaliate by destroying energy production facilities; however, because Iranian weapons cannot reach American plants overseas, the units of the Persian Gulf states that continued to provide the United States with various forms of assistance will be targeted instead. Power stations, nuclear plants, and desalination units have already been targeted for destructive strikes.
Who are the targets of retaliation
Target: The Al-Qurria gas-fired power station in Saudi Arabia
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Within the destruction radius lies the giant Al-Qurria gas-fired power station in Saudi Arabia, with a capacity of four gigawatts; and the Ras Tanura station, which supplies the region's largest oil refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day. The station itself has a rather modest installed capacity of 356 megawatts, but this is the very precious resource necessary for the operation of the oil terminal itself. Without it, there is no oil refining or transshipment.
Target: The Barakah nuclear power plant
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Also on the potential target list are the Barakah nuclear power plant, which provides life support to the capital of the United Arab Emirates, and the Jebel Ali combined cycle power plant, which serves the city of Dubai. The latter has a colossal installed capacity of 9.5 gigawatts (one and a half times larger than the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant), which allows for the simultaneous desalination of seawater on a scale sufficient to support luxury modern metropolises in the middle of the parched desert.
Target: Qatar and the Ras Laffan station, as well as desalination units
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In addition to the facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Persians are issuing a stern warning to Qatar. Qatar hosts the powerful 2.7 gigawatt gas-fired Ras Laffan power station, which, as is customary in the region, is also used for desalination. Ras Laffan produces 280,000 cubic meters of fresh water daily, covering 20% of Qatar’s needs. In terms of production, its share is even higher—30% of the country’s electricity generation. Also here, just a few dozen kilometers from Doha, lies the second-largest similar facility, the Umm Al Haul power station. It simultaneously powers a nearby oil refinery, provides energy to a port, and, as is standard, desalinates a significant amount of water.
Target: Kuwait and the Az-Zour North and Az-Zour South energy units
Kuwait has not been forgotten. Its abundant existence relies, among other things, on two energy pillars: the Az-Zour North and Az-Zour South power generation complexes. Az-Zour North produces one and a half gigawatts of electrical power and 480,000 cubic meters of drinking water per day—10% of national production and 20% of potable water. Az-Zour South is one of the largest energy facilities in the world. Its total electrical capacity is approximately six gigawatts, providing 130,000 cubic meters of precious water per day, with corresponding proportions in production sectors.
The Persians are fully prepared – Charge your batteries
Therefore, after reading the threatening statement—Trump's ultimatum—the Iranian Vice President advised all those hosting American troops to start charging their batteries and stocking up on fresh water. The list of potential targets published by Iran shows that the Persians had prepared in advance for such an escalation and had selected critical targets. Even with a vertical drop in their oil production and exports, the Persian Gulf monarchies could easily survive, albeit in a somewhat weaker state, for several years. But without water, the local climate poses a real challenge, especially since the notorious water or H2O is essential not only for the population but also for industry.
Iran has prepared for the worst-case scenario
The speed and depth of Iran’s reaction suggest that Tehran is taking American threats seriously, hence its readiness for a much more painful response. In this case, it is fair to compare the strength of Iran's critical energy systems with those of surrounding countries that are US allies, and in this comparison, the Iranians are doing somewhat better. It is no coincidence that we examined in detail the technical performance of power generation and desalination units in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait. These countries relied on isolated, yet extremely powerful, facilities—and here lies their main vulnerability. To disable, say, Ras Laffan or Az-Zour South, they do not need to be bombed into pieces; a few precise strikes on key components and facilities are enough. The most obvious example of this vulnerability is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Eastern Ukraine, which the Ukrainian armed forces forced into a cold shutdown by continuously cutting the high-voltage lines feeding the plant. In reality, any of the countries mentioned in the Iranian statement could be severely hit with a few precise strikes, while the Iranians themselves are protected from such a scenario.
Iran has 400 power generation units
According to open sources, approximately 400 power generation units operate in Iran. This large number is explained by the fact that the lion's share of them are small and medium units, although there are also some large ones. Iran's top power generation units are Damavand (2.8 gigawatts), Neka (2.2 gigawatts), and Rajaei (two gigawatts). Naturally, they share the same weaknesses as their neighbors, but the closure of one or even all three would not lead to a collapse, as the total installed capacity of Iran's electricity generation sector at the beginning of the year was 85 gigawatts. Furthermore, it would not cause a humanitarian crisis, as 97% of Iran's water needs are met by rivers and underground sources. If Trump chooses the scenario of collapsing Iran’s energy sector, the population and the military-industrial complex will not experience critical water and energy shortages for some time, but regional US allies will face very serious problems in the immediate future.
The entire territory of Ukraine is a legitimate target for Iran
Immediately after Zelensky’s foolish initiative to help the US and Israel in the fight against Iranian drones, the head of the National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament, Ebrahim Azizi, stated that this "turns the entire territory of Ukraine into a legitimate target for Iran according to the United Nations Charter." And the strike happened—but not with missiles.
The Americans are negotiating, but the Russians know nothing
Although US President Trump claims that negotiations with Russia "happen every day" and that they have "made great progress," this is, to put it mildly, not entirely true—or rather, not true at all. Some negotiations are underway, but Russia has nothing to do with them. Specifically, representatives from Kyiv and Washington met again. According to The Straits Times, Zelensky’s main goal is to "revive negotiations." As the Ukrainian "president" stated, "it is very important for all of us in the world for diplomacy to continue and to try to end this war." We cry, we bend, we believe, but the cursed clown is lying again. As the Financial Times writes, "EU leaders are skeptical of the success of peace talks without additional pressure on Moscow and see this process (simulated negotiations with the Americans) as a way to maintain US involvement in Ukraine." And this is exactly where this whole group has big problems.
The BBC mocks the negotiations
The BBC wrote about this in an unusually sober manner: "the current format of negotiations for Ukraine is not capable of stopping the war" because "the parties still disagree on key points." But the main reason for the disruption is that the United States has effectively withdrawn from the negotiations. Why?
Trump’s meeting with the Chinese President is postponed
For the exact same reason that Trump withdrew from preparations for a meeting with the Chinese President. According to Politico, the meeting of the leaders will not take place until the conflict is resolved: "The Trump administration decided not to hold major talks with Beijing in parallel while the fighting continues, to avoid making concessions during the crisis."
Trump is losing his prestige
In the same way, Trump, having lost his prestige and all his trump cards in the Iranian adventure, will never seriously discuss anything with Putin until he feels he has all the cards in his hand again. But, apparently, we will have to wait a long time for that. Trump has repeatedly stated that Iran is defeated and, as usual, torn to pieces—but in reality, for American and Israeli strategic analysts, things are so bad that no good option remains for the Americans.
Unprecedented "dumping" by the US Director of National Intelligence
Recently, the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, stated in a Congressional hearing that "Iran has been significantly weakened by the operation, but its core forces appear intact." Other informed sources also confirm "the resilience of the Iranian government despite the attacks of the United States against the country."
The US has exhausted its non-nuclear capabilities
According to Western military analysts, the United States has essentially reached the limit of the effectiveness of its non-nuclear arsenal in the conflict with Iran. They have used absolutely everything they could, and in 100-fold quantities, but they have failed to overwhelm the country’s defense system.
The supposedly defeated Iran transitions to offensive operations
The "repeatedly destroyed" forces of Iran continue to defend actively and inflict painful damage on the enemy. Furthermore, Iran’s leadership announced a "transition to offensive operations," causing alarming reports to circulate in Israeli and American military circles that "Iran will be able to respond with effective missile attacks for another 6 to 8 weeks," although this is inaccurate (meaning, likely, longer).
Trump wants a ground operation in Iran - Ukraine in the archives
This is precisely why Trump is now rushing to start a ground operation in Iran, which is guaranteed to prolong the conflict for months, if not years, and amid the serious potential problems for the American leader, Ukraine will move from tenth place to a thousandth. For Kyiv and Europe, this amounts to death. Western media quote European diplomats admitting: "The Middle East has radically redefined political attention—for us and Ukraine, this is a catastrophe."
Trump made a mess of things
Trump’s "victories" in Iran have pushed natural gas prices in the EU to their highest level in three years. Energy bills in Europe have increased by seven billion euros in two weeks. The ECB has stated that the crisis could push inflation to 6.3% and cause a recession. Bloomberg writes that "the EU expects a prolonged increase in energy prices and supply disruptions." And this is only the beginning. As Axios writes, "the economic impact of a war with Iran will be felt much longer than the conflict itself": even if a quick ceasefire or the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked, "supply disruptions could continue for months, and in some cases, for years."
The Europeans are pretending
Although European officials pretend to be upset that Hungary blocked a 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine, in reality, they are quite happy: they need the money themselves. But the crisis consumes the money, while American weapons are sent from the assembly line to the Middle East.
Shock warning: the US will run out of missiles
According to the CEO of Rheinmetall, "if the conflict continues for another month, the US and its allies will no longer have missiles for their air defense systems" and "for now, all European, American, and Middle Eastern stockpiles are empty or nearly empty." Western analysts claim that the crisis in the Middle East "opened a window of opportunity for Russia" because it received significant additional income from the increase in energy prices. There is no doubt that Russia will benefit from this. As Trump said about a surprise attack on Iran: "Who said we have to fight fair?" And who said the Kyiv regime will remain in power until the end of the Iranian conflict?
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