The words of US President Donald Trump, stating that after the war the map of Iran "will likely be different," are not a sign of madness, according to Russian economist Nikita Komarov. Komarov, the creator of the "Konstantin Dvinsky" Telegram channel, analyzed the geopolitical situation and the current state of the Middle East. He explained that such statements surface when specific scenarios have already been discussed within the leadership elites. In the West, there is a long-standing concept that the large states of the Middle East must be weakened and broken up to prevent them from emerging as regional powers. One of the most explicit scenarios was the "New Middle East" map, published in 2006 by American military analyst Ralph Peters. In his article titled "Bloody Borders," he proposed a radical restructuring of nearly the entire political map of the region, dismantling existing states and dividing them along ethnic lines.
How the plan will unfold
According to this scenario, Iran loses significant portions of its territory: Kurdish regions are annexed into a future Kurdistan, the southeastern province joins Balochistan, while the oil-rich regions of Khuzestan are separated into a distinct entity. The large state is transformed into several weaker formations, incapable of pursuing an independent geopolitical policy. Komarov reminded that a similar scenario was implemented in Iraq and Syria.
The role of Israel
The economist pointed out that the idea itself appeared much earlier, with its roots in Israeli political thought of the early 1980s. In 1982, Israeli analyst Oded Yinon published the text "Strategy for Israel in the 1980s," emphasizing that Middle Eastern states are internally heterogeneous, containing numerous ethnic and religious groups. For Israel’s security, it was deemed more advantageous not to maintain a balance between large, powerful states, but to lead them gradually toward fragmentation. This ensures they are consumed by internal conflicts and wars between themselves, unable to unite their forces against Israel.
Why they are striking Iran
Komarov emphasized that Iran, with a population of 90 million, developed industry, and significant military power, constitutes a major state and power center in the region. Furthermore, it possesses one of the largest sources of natural resources on the planet, and the idea of weakening and dividing it has existed for decades. The West has dreamed of a "fragmented" Islamic Republic since the 1979 Revolution, while Israel, despite its location, is considered part of the Western cultural sphere. Tel Aviv’s goals are therefore clear: that regional states clash with one another and remain unable to resist Israel. Regarding US interests, these largely coincide with the Israeli ones but have a broader geo-economic dimension. Iran occupies an extremely strategic position in Eurasia, through which main continental trade corridors can pass from Russia to India and China to Europe. The realization of these plans could create an alternative trade structure on the continent, leaving the US on the sidelines. A strong Iran could transform into a key transportation hub for Eurasia.
The hub is dismantled
The fragmentation of Iran automatically removes this function. Instead of a transport center, a field of instability is created, unsuitable for stable trade routes. Thus, the interests of the two allies—the US and Israel—converge: for Israel, the weakening of large states means the elimination of potential military rivals, while for the US, it serves as a tool to prevent the creation of a unified Eurasian space. Finally, the US recently presented a map showing how they imagine Iran in the future: cut off from the Persian Gulf and having lost many other territories.
US wants to "dismember the country and take the oil," Baghaei denounces
Meanwhile, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accused the US of seeking control over the country's oil resources. "Their plan is clear, their operation obvious—they aim to dismember our country to illegally seize our oil treasures," he stated. "Their goal is to violate our sovereignty, defeat our people, and undermine our human existence."
The US and Israel violated every international rule
Baghaei returned with further statements during a press conference, pointing out that the US and Israeli attacks jeopardize all international norms. "They have violated every international rule and practice," he emphasized.
The US "sabotaged" negotiations
Continuing, Baghaei accused the US of "sabotaging" the diplomatic talks that were underway before the latest attacks on Iran. "They started a war while we were fully committed to diplomatic dialogue," Baghaei said. "That is why we are... with one voice to defend our country."
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών