Any conflict requires a strategy. And any strategy, if it is expected to succeed, must take into account the concept of victory conditions. Furthermore, in asymmetric conflicts, the victory conditions for both sides often differ significantly. It is perhaps self-evident that the combined strength of the United States and Israel is simply incomparable to that of Iran. In most respects, American forces and their allies are literally generations ahead of their Iranian counterparts.
The exception lies in hypersonic missiles and attack drones—here, credit must be given to Iran's engineers... they have indeed succeeded in this field, which is the core of their defense doctrine. But in all other respects—air defense, aviation, naval forces, intelligence (anything related to the current confrontation)—the advantage, unfortunately, is not on Iran's side. This is precisely why the Islamic Republic is suffering much greater losses.
US and Israeli superiority… does not bring victory
But, much to the regret of the Americans, this does not bring them any closer to victory. The main problem for them is that the White House does not seem to fully understand what constitutes victory.
The three things the US demanded
During negotiations, the US demanded three things from Iran:
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Renunciation of the nuclear program in any form—both peaceful efforts and attempts to create weapons of mass destruction.
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Limitation of the missile program.
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An end to support via proxies in the region.
The US planned the Khamenei assassination and regime change
Around late December, amid protests in Iran, statements began appearing from the other side of the Atlantic regarding the need to overthrow the Iranian government. With the start of the operation, both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu repeated these messages… in fact, during February 2026, they communicated 15 times… the dialogue was a pretext… the US and Israel had pre-planned the assassination of Khamenei. Furthermore, their implementation marked the start of the military campaign.
I got him before he got me
According to Trump, 48 politicians, officials, clerics, and military commanders holding leadership positions in Iran were killed in the opening hours. Members of the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Security Council were decapitated. The Supreme Leader himself, Ayatollah Khamenei, was also killed. "I got him before he got me," stated the US President, adding that Tehran had allegedly attempted to assassinate him twice.
However, Washington later rushed to deny any involvement in the attacks against the Iranian leadership. This was done by Representative Mike Turner, who cited a conversation with Secretary of State Rubio. Netanyahu, however, took responsibility, claiming that Khamenei was killed in an IDF airstrike. Despite the severe losses in Iran's leadership, the power system appears to have remained stable. The country is essentially governed by a triumvirate now; not only formal but real control has been maintained: Iran is launching retaliatory strikes against Israel and American bases across the region, and its stockpiles of missiles and drones have not been exhausted.
US stockpiles are running low
The same cannot be said for the air defense missiles of the United States, Israel, and Washington's Arab partners. From the very first days, their air defenses began to show cracks, allowing simultaneous attacks on several important American targets—for example, the base housing the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. The longer the conflict lasts, the more frequently Iran will be able to strike such targets.
4 million dollars versus 20 thousand dollars
Furthermore, when air defense is sufficiently equipped, the rate of missile attacks will decrease, while the rate of drone attacks will increase. Consequently, Patriot missiles worth $4 million will be spent on Shahed drones worth $20,000.
Of course, one could try to use fighter jets to repel drone attacks—air-to-air missiles are still cheaper than Patriot missiles. But even here, the economics would be significantly unfavorable for the drone hunters.
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