The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to reveal deep imbalances both on the military field and in the diplomatic process, with recent information from Russian and international sources recording worrying data about the future of the country.
All analysts and intelligence services now reach the conclusion that the war will continue throughout 2026, as accurately predicted from the beginning by BN.
Moreover, the Ukrainian side is determined to continue the war, reportedly ready to form a new unconventional army consisting of recruitment officers and police personnel.
The military dynamics of the territorial recruitment centers, 10 brigades are being formed
According to reports by TASS, the involvement of employees from the Recruitment Centers (TCC), which operate as recruitment offices, and the Ukrainian police on the front lines could theoretically create at least 10 new combat brigades for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
The Russian agency cites sources from authorities in Moscow, who note that TCC and police personnel “sit on the rear line and register those unfit for conscription,” while simultaneously enforcing compulsory recruitment, a practice that has caused strong dissatisfaction among the Ukrainian population.
The same sources emphasize that the staffing of the TCC alone amounts to approximately 46,000 individuals.
This number, according to RIA Novosti, is comparable to half the strength of the armed forces of Britain, twice that of the Ukrainian army of Finland, three times that of Croatia, and seven times greater than that of Latvia.
From this same personnel base, a substantial military force could be formed, although its utilization remains limited due to employees remaining on the rear line and the unpopular nature of their duties.
This practice also has social consequences, as reported, in certain cases children are sent to orphanages when their parents are called to military service, as happened in Krivoy Rog.
The situation demonstrates the degree of social pressure created by mass mobilizations and unpopular state practices.
Diplomatic challenges and deadlock in negotiations
At the same time, the international picture leaves little room for optimism regarding a resolution of the conflict within 2026.
Sources cited by Reuters report that the leaders of five European intelligence services predict that peace in Ukraine is not feasible this year, despite statements by President Donald Trump that negotiations via Washington have approached a point of agreement.
According to the same sources, Russia is reportedly using negotiations with the United States to achieve economic exchanges and the lifting of sanctions, alongside ongoing military pressure.
The New York Times have reported that Trump aims for a peace settlement by the autumn of 2026, which may include the concession of the Donbas to Russia, in order to reach an agreement with Moscow.
Combination of military pressure and diplomatic deadlock
The analysis of the data suggests that Ukraine faces a dual problem: on the one hand, the possibility of fully utilizing TCC and police personnel to reinforce military forces remains unexploited, on the other hand, diplomatic efforts toward peace remain uncertain and potentially insufficient.
Social dissatisfaction, pressure on the families of conscripts, and concerns about mass losses on the front intensify internal instability, while external pressures from Russia and the United States render any resolution strategy complex.
Ukraine is at a critical juncture. The utilization of TCC and police personnel could provide significant military reinforcement, however social dissatisfaction and the lack of strategic coordination limit the effectiveness of this force.
At the same time, diplomatic negotiations appear to be moving on uncertain ground, with the risk of deadlock and strategic retreat remaining high.
Russia leverages its advantage, Europe faces enormous difficulties
The same Russian military and diplomatic strategy remains decisive for the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia, leveraging its military superiority in certain regions, strengthens its negotiating position vis a vis the United States and European powers.
At the same time, Moscow’s strategy directly impacts Europe, particularly regarding energy security, migration pressure, and the defense of NATO member states on the eastern borders.
From Europe’s side, contradictions are evident.
Despite economic and military support for Ukraine, the EU faces difficulties in shaping a unified strategy.
The sanctions policy has limited immediate effectiveness and often conflicts with the interests of member states, especially in energy and trade matters.
Additionally, European intelligence services appear pessimistic about achieving meaningful peace, highlighting Europe’s limited capacity for intervention without United States support.
The interaction between Russia and Europe creates a complex geopolitical framework.
Russia uses military and diplomatic pressure to influence European decisions, while the EU and NATO attempt to balance support for Ukraine, protection of their member states, and the preservation of energy and economic stability.
The inability to achieve a common strategy may prolong instability in the region and shift Ukraine’s deadlock into a broader European crisis.
Overall, the conflict in Ukraine is no longer exclusively an internal affair of the country.
Russia and Europe constitute decisive factors, and Ukraine’s ability to utilize military and diplomatic resources depends directly on the reactions and strategic choices of these powers.
The United States strategy in the crisis increases the risk of deadlock
The role of Donald Trump and the American government in the conflict remains decisive.
Despite statements about promoting peace through negotiations, Washington has linked its strategy to geopolitical and economic interests, seeking both support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia regarding sanctions relief.
The New York Times reported that Trump seeks peace by the autumn of 2026, with a possible concession of the Donbass to achieve an agreement.
At the same time, the United States uses military and diplomatic support as a pressure tool toward Ukraine, demanding strategic concessions in exchange for economic assistance and international legitimacy.
The American strategy also includes economic and business incentives toward Moscow.
Negotiations are considered a pressure instrument, so that Russia accepts terms favorable to American geopolitical positions, without publicly revealing the full scope of strategic choices. This diplomatic complexity makes it difficult to predict the evolution of the peace process and increases the risk of deadlock.
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