A state of genuine shock prevails within the American military following a new assessment and simulation confirming that the Pentagon's current aircraft fleet is insufficient for a potential armed conflict with China. The authors of the joint report by the Department of Defense and the Institute of Aerospace Research argue that the acquisition of a new generation of fighters and bombers is urgent; otherwise, suppressing the adversary will be impossible.
Five hundred aircraft
It is no secret that the United States considers China its primary geopolitical rival. Beijing possesses the world's second-largest economy, the largest armed forces, and now the highest number of warships. China is already challenging Washington's naval dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the US views Taiwan as a critical semiconductor production hub and declares itself ready to fight for the island if necessary. The primary strength of the Pentagon in a hypothetical battle for Taiwan is its aviation. Washington plans to deploy ground forces on the "first island chain"—Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines (northern part), and Borneo—but this remains a plan. In the immediate future, air power is considered the only realistic option.
According to expert estimates, the Air Force needs at least 300 sixth-generation fighters and 200 stealth bombers. The Department of Defense had announced its intention to purchase 185 new fighters from Boeing and 100 bombers from Northrop Grumman. However, China's rapid military buildup seems to force a revision of these plans, while it is uncertain whether the defense industry can respond soon. The new sixth-generation fighter is still in development, while the bomber program has become exceptionally expensive, with costs now approaching those of older strategic bombers.
Need for stockpiles and loss replacement
American experts emphasize that modern wars demonstrate how critical mass strikes on the rear and the rapid securing of air superiority are—tasks that require large stockpiles of aircraft. Analysts at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies point out that in a recent operation against Iran's nuclear facilities, the entire fleet of strategic stealth bombers was utilized. If even one had been shot down, there would be no immediate replacement, an event that would have thwarted the continuation of the operation! Experts are calling for a delay in the retirement of older bombers until the Air Force acquires a sufficient number of new ones. Currently, it possesses only three such advanced aircraft.
"Theoretical victory" with heavy losses
The Pentagon systematically conducts war simulations with the Chinese Air Force. The scenario repeats: in 2030, the People's Liberation Army launches a major amphibious operation to capture Taiwan. The US intervenes, having concentrated forces in the South China Sea. The result is consistently the same: American aircraft and drones fail to break through the Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) zones deployed in the landing area. Chinese fighters and air defense systems effectively cover the airspace, while the invasion forces capture the island.
A marginal victory is achieved only with the most modern aircraft—which have not yet been mass-produced—and with significant losses. "Based on the results of the war simulations, one thing is certain: we will lose many pilots," stated Clint Hinote, Deputy Chief of Staff of the US Air Force. "To win, both the Pentagon and American society must be ready for significant losses. This is the objective reality." Additionally, for a successful war with China, the US would need to fully utilize its aerial refueling fleet. However, an aircraft safety oversight committee has already warned that many of these are overaged, while newer models exhibit frequent malfunctions. Overall, American experts admit that the US is not yet ready to fight China effectively in the Asia-Pacific. Washington is boosting its military power—but China is doing so on a much larger scale.
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