The hands of the Doomsday Clock are moving dangerously close to zero. On 27 January 2026, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest point to nuclear catastrophe in history. Among the reasons cited, the most prominent is the imminent expiration of the New Start treaty between the US and Russia on 5 February 2026, which calls into question the future of global arms control and paves the way for a new arms race.
What is the New Start treaty
The expiration of New Start, signed in 2010 by presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, will mark the first time in nearly half a century that the US and Russia will have no formal regulatory framework governing their nuclear arsenals. The agreement had limited each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and 700 heavy bombers. Experts warn that the absence of a deal could signal the start of an uncontrolled nuclear race, with significant risk posed by countries outside the agreement, primarily US allies within Nato.
For the first time in decades, Europe appears to be actively involved in this process, potentially leading to the expansion or deployment of nuclear weapons on European soil. Recent comments by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, stating that Europeans are discussing the creation of a joint nuclear "umbrella system," have caused alarm. Meanwhile, Asian nations such as Japan and South Korea appear to be considering similar capabilities, albeit at a behind-the-scenes level. Even without their active participation, the lifting of restrictions by the dominant nuclear powers, the US and Russia, constitutes a serious threat to global security in an era of renewed imperialist ambitions and the redistribution of spheres of influence.
The silent nuclear race
Concern over the end of the era of nuclear deterrence is being voiced loudly by Western media, particularly in the US. Politico notes that the impending expiration occurs during a period of intense tension, as Russia and China expand their strategic stockpiles. Russia has deployed significant intermediate-range nuclear weapons, such as the Oreshnik ballistic missile, which has been used against Ukraine. China has doubled its nuclear arsenal, while the US has reduced some nuclear delivery platforms. The lifting of restrictions does not appear to benefit the US, while the unclear stance of the Trump administration has caused bewilderment, especially as Russia proposed a one-year extension of the deal last September without receiving a formal response.
The Trump distraction
Donald Trump’s flippant attitude is causing particular concern, as he consistently underestimates the dangers of life without a treaty: "If the deal expires, it expires. We'll just make a better deal," he stated. Russia, for its part, appears cautious. Former President Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that it is better to have no new agreement than to sign one that masks mutual distrust and triggers a new arms race.
The US strategy to include China in the treaty is considered flawed by many analysts. Beijing has made it clear that it will only participate once the US reduces its stockpiles to China's level, while it continues to relentlessly expand its own nuclear arsenal, which according to the Pentagon, will reach 1,000 warheads by 2030 and parity with the US and Russia by 2035. According to Kingston Reif, a former high-ranking Pentagon official for nuclear policy, the end of restrictions is no panacea and does not eliminate the risk of nuclear weapons globally: "I never understood why we should abandon all restrictions on Russia's strategic nukes, since the New Start treaty was not a cure-all," he says.
The three options
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump appears to be considering three options: a full rejection of the treaty and preparation for strategic competition with Russia and China; a temporary extension with the reinstatement of inspections on Russian nuclear sites (which have been closed since 2022); or accepting Moscow's proposal as a temporary measure to negotiate a broader agreement involving China.
Which option will prevail remains unknown. However, the Doomsday Clock ticks on relentlessly, bringing humanity closer to the moment when every other problem loses significance in the face of nuclear annihilation.
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