When it happens once, it will happen again. This is the thought prevailing among global leaders following the American intervention in Venezuela. Many countries are naturally in the "red," but Iran is on high alert. In fact, according to information cited by the Jewish Jerusalem Post, the United States is considering the possibility of intervention in Iran amid ongoing anti-regime protests. At the same time, Israel is evaluating whether the removal of Nicolas Maduro from power in Venezuela could create a precedent for action against the Iranian regime.
Everyone caught by surprise
According to the same information, the sudden American intervention in Venezuela seems to have caught Israel off guard, overturning its previous calculations about what is possible in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until recently, Israeli officials did not estimate that the protests against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had the necessary momentum to lead to regime change. In both Jerusalem and Washington, the protests were considered insufficient to overthrow Khamenei. However, the abduction of Nicolas Maduro appears to have altered the facts, strengthening the assessment that targeted interventions could act as a catalyst for developments.
What the USA is considering
Reports indicate that Washington is considering a limited and targeted intervention aimed at strengthening the Iranian protest movement to increase the chances of a political overthrow. Meanwhile, Israel is investigating whether the example of Venezuela makes a similar scenario realistic for Iran. In this context, Mossad has publicly admitted to providing assistance to Iranian protesters, while Tehran claims to have arrested one of the involved agents. Simultaneously, Israeli officials are positioning themselves increasingly openly in favor of a more active international stance. The Minister of Science and Technology, Gila Gamliel, a former Minister of Intelligence, underlined in an article that the international community must support the Iranian people not only with statements but also with "specific actions," pointing out that regimes based on fear are historically doomed to collapse.
Israel on standby
In the same vein, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a special security meeting following the American moves in Venezuela, while former Defense Minister Benny Gantz openly called on the USA and Israel to intervene in favor of the Iranian protesters, either to force the regime into retreat or to overthrow it. Until June, however, the official line of both Washington and Jerusalem was clearly opposed to regime change, with the focus remaining on weakening Iran's nuclear program. Nevertheless, Tehran's limited reaction to recent attacks, the intensification of protests, and the seemingly low-cost American intervention in Venezuela appear to have shifted the strategic balance. Officials from both sides are now reportedly examining new scenarios, which include even the threat or use of limited military force, aiming to prevent the violent suppression of protests by Khamenei and to give the movement time to strengthen.
No decision has been made yet
Although a final decision has not yet been reached—especially as Donald Trump evaluates the consequences of the intervention in Venezuela—indications suggest that, for the first time, the USA and Israel consider the possibility of a limited intervention in favor of the protesters realistic, without a generalized military invasion for the overthrow of the regime.
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