China has reportedly loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) into its three newest silo fields and shows no desire to participate in arms control discussions, according to a draft Pentagon report highlighting Beijing's growing military ambitions.
China is expanding and modernizing its weapons stockpile at a faster rate than any other nuclear power, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based non-profit organization. Beijing has characterized reports of a military buildup as attempts to "slander and discredit China and deliberately mislead the international community."
Refusal of dialogue
US President Donald Trump stated last month that he may be working on a nuclear denuclearization plan with China and Russia. However, the Pentagon report, seen by Reuters, stated that Beijing appears to have no interest in such discussions.
"We see no desire from Beijing to pursue such initiatives or more comprehensive discussions on arms control," the report stated.
According to the document, China appears to have placed over 100 solid-fueled DF-31 ICBMs in silos near the Chinese border with Mongolia—the latest in a series of such silo sites. While the Pentagon had previously reported the existence of these silos, it had not specified the number of missiles loaded.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington stated that China has "maintained a strategic nuclear defense, kept its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and adheres to its commitment to suspend nuclear testing."
Seeking the target
The Pentagon report did not specify the likely target of the new missiles. US officials noted that the report may change before being sent to lawmakers.
The report noted that China's nuclear stockpile stands at approximately 600 warheads in 2024, indicating a "lower production rate compared to previous years." However, it added that China's nuclear expansion continues and is expected to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030.
China has stated that it follows a "strategic nuclear self-defense and a policy of no-first-use."
The expiration of New START
The Pentagon report arrived less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START Treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, which limits the parties to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden extended the treaty for five years in February 2021, but its terms do not allow for further formal extension. Many experts fear that the expiration of the agreement could trigger a three-way nuclear arms race.
"More nuclear weapons and an absence of diplomacy will not make anyone safer—neither China, nor Russia, nor the US," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, an advocacy group.
Anti-corruption efforts in China
Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched a broad anti-corruption campaign, with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) being one of the main targets. The report stated that the purging of corruption may affect nuclear readiness in the short term, but it will create the conditions for "long-term improvements of the PLA as a whole."
Revenue from China's giant military companies decreased last year as corruption purges delayed weapons contracts and procurement, according to a leading conflict think tank. China showed a drop in arms revenue despite the ongoing increase in its military budget, as strategic competitiveness with the United States grows alongside rising tension over Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea.
In the last 18 months, at least 26 top and former directors at state-owned weapons companies have been investigated or removed from their positions, the Pentagon report noted.
"Investigations have expanded from the missile and rocket supplier industry in 2023 to the vast majority of the Chinese defense industry, including China's nuclear and shipbuilding industries," the report added.
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