The war and the diplomatic pressures exerted by international actors such as the United States and Europe have given Ukraine an intense political dynamic and an environment of fierce conflict over power and control of the political process.
Recent developments, such as the handling of the corruption scandal surrounding Andrei Yermak, known in Ukraine also as the gray cardinal, and his removal from the position of head of the President’s Office, highlight an extremely complex situation for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky finds himself amid unprecedented pressures, both internal and external, that affect Ukraine.
Yermak and the management of power
The removal of Andrei Yermak from the position of head of the President’s Office caused intense political turmoil in Ukraine, with many believing that the corruption scandal had serious consequences for Zelensky’s image and political authority.
However, it appears that despite Yermak’s removal, Zelensky maintains close relations with him, while the influence of the former head of the Office on the internal political process appears to remain significant, notes the Ukrainian outlet Strana.
Sources report that Zelensky has delayed appointing a new head of the President’s Office, possibly in order to maintain the existing political dynamic and avoid even greater turmoil.
Zelensky’s recent moves show his strategy to keep his power unchanged, avoiding the fragmentation of the political structure and power networks.
Zelensky appears to be trying to maintain control of the “government chain” and financial flows through his close associate and friend, Sergei Shefir (note: film producer), who has taken over the positions left by the former associate of the Ukrainian president, Timur Mindich, after his departure.
Zelensky and foreign policy - The pressure from the United States and Europe
Zelensky appears to be in a constant compromise between the demands of the United States and his European allies, with Ukraine’s future depending on his ability to balance these two major strategic interests.
The Ukrainian president’s effort to secure support from the United States for the peace plan with Russia is critical, as he seeks to maintain American backing while avoiding concessions on critical issues such as the withdrawal of troops from the Donbass.
Zelensky’s foreign policy, although focused on strengthening relations with the West, must confront ongoing pressure for political concessions from the United States and Europe.
In this context, he appears to be trying to restore his standing within the country and secure unequivocal support from the Europeans, while simultaneously maintaining his influence within Ukraine.
Internal political crisis - The role of NABU and SAPO
The internal political crisis was further intensified by the confrontation with anti corruption bodies such as NABU (National Anti Corruption Bureau) and SAPO (Specialized Anti Corruption Prosecutor’s Office).
After Yermak’s removal, Zelensky appears to be trying to confront opposition forces, which had previously managed to challenge his political authority and integrity.
Zelensky’s strategy also includes an effort to monitor and control developments around Mindich, whom opposition figures accuse of corruption, seeking to secure the trust of the Europeans and the Americans and to proceed with the implementation of the peace plan he has proposed for Ukraine’s future.
Political tension is intensifying, as Zelensky’s attempt to regain ground and reassert control over anti corruption bodies appears to be failing, with leaks and revelations about the corruption regime multiplying.
Failed counteroffensive by Zelensky
One of Zelensky’s core strategies is to continue the counteroffensive against his opponents, which includes key figures of the opposition coalition, in an effort to regain control of the political scene and dismantle his political rivals.
However, this strategy appears to be extremely difficult, as his attempt to regain control of internal structures and anti corruption institutions often fails due to strong resistance from institutions and political opponents.
His effort to maintain political power and control power networks in Ukraine is intertwined with a series of strategic issues, such as foreign policy, relations with Western allies, and the stability of internal political processes.
Nevertheless, his room for political maneuver has narrowed significantly, as internal resistance and pressure from international actors continue to intensify.
Uncertainty over the leadership of the President’s Office - How Yermak took control
The delay in appointing a new head of the President’s Office reveals how fragile the political situation is for Zelensky.
Despite the names that have leaked for the position, such as Mykhailo Fedorov, Denys Shmyhal, and Kirill Budanov, there is no clear consensus on who should take over.
According to rumors, the delay is not only due to competition among the candidates, but also to Yermak’s prolonged influence.
Many of Yermak’s allies continue to hold central positions in the government, entrenching his position and maintaining his influence.
Meanwhile, Zelensky’s efforts to restore political stability are confronted with external and internal pressures.
The growing influence of Yermak’s allies in strategic positions, such as Development Minister Oleksiy Kuleba and others in the energy and foreign affairs sectors, shows that the president has not fully severed ties with his former head of office.
Uncertain future
As 2025 approaches its end, the political prospects for Zelensky are filled with uncertainty.
Parliament’s failure to fill vacant positions in the government is indicative of deep divisions within the Ukrainian government.
Vacant ministerial posts in critical sectors such as justice and energy remain unfilled, while rumors of further dismissals of figures linked to Yermak remain intense.
The vacancies and the struggle to appoint a new head of the President’s Office are indications that Zelensky’s future in power is likely to be beyond his control.
Moreover, rising tensions within the country’s political elites and uncertainty over who will control Ukraine’s anti corruption institutions intensify the sense that Zelensky may fail to maintain his dominance.
As the battle between pro Western and pro Russian forces intensifies, the risk of the governing coalition breaking apart becomes increasingly likely.
Hard battle - The West does not want Yermak
The ongoing struggle for power in Ukraine, with Yermak’s influence, corruption scandals, and international pressures, is far from over.
Zelensky’s efforts to restore his political standing have been hindered not only by internal corruption investigations, but also by the constantly shifting dynamics of international diplomacy.
While the usurper president of Ukraine attempts to consolidate his power, the forces opposing him are strengthening, and the final outcome of this political turmoil remains uncertain.
Will Zelensky manage to stabilize the Ukrainian government, or will he succumb to Yermak’s influence and the growing pressure from opposition forces?
The next phase of this political crisis promises to be just as turbulent as the previous one, with consequences not only for the president, but also for Ukraine’s future.
The only certainty is that the Western factor does not wish Yermak to assume central control, something that will have consequences for the negotiation process on the Ukrainian issue.
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