The president of the United States Donald Trump appears ready to pressure Volodymyr Zelensky by every means, diplomatic, political, economic and even military, so that the head of the Kyiv regime agrees to the American peace plan on the Ukrainian matter. As we wrote yesterday 9/12, Trump demands that the Ukrainian president agree to a peace draft before Christmas. At the same time, he forcefully raised the issue of constitutionality, demanding that Zelensky proceed with holding presidential elections. However, the ultimate and most painful tool of Trump is none other than the pressure on the Ukrainian army itself, which faces the Russian military machine.
Trump will move from words to actions
The military observer of the Russian outlet Gazeta.Ru and veteran Colonel Mykhailo Khodarenok examined which practical steps the White House could take to bring Zelensky to the negotiating table. Despite the threatening tone of the statements of the President of the White House Donald Trump (which continued in an interview with Politico) against the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (some observers interpreted it even as a death sentence), the issue has not yet reached the point of practical measures. In this case, it makes sense to list all the means of influence that the United States can exert on Ukraine (we note immediately that we will not analyze measures of a conspiratorial nature).
The United States... ready to pull the plug on Ukraine’s American weapons!
The procedures currently being discussed by the United States, which have already been discussed several times, may include the cut of funding to Ukraine (this has already begun to be implemented), the suspension of the supply of weapons, military and specialized equipment, the interruption of the transfer of intelligence data (mainly coordinates information for high precision weapons) and the shutting down of the Starlink system over Ukrainian territory. In addition to all this, there is also an issue on the table concerning the possibility that the United States supplied equipment to Ukraine with a switch.
That is, at the appropriate moment, with the elegant press of a switch on the American side, the operation of complex aircraft (multirole F-16 fighters), anti aircraft missiles (Patriot SAMs), radar weapons and automated control systems either ceases completely or operates with a significant reduction in combat capability. This, of course, is speculation for now, but similar precedents have already occurred in local wars.
First victim the Patriots and Ukrainian air defense
At the same time, the halt in the supply of guided anti aircraft missiles for the Patriot air defense system could highlight major weaknesses on the Ukrainian side. And precisely in the configuration that gives this system non strategic anti missile defense capabilities.
This, however, would make Ukraine’s air defense system essentially defenseless against strikes from operational tactical and aero ballistic missiles of the Russian Armed Forces.
HIMARS and MLRS will also be affected
Among other things, it is possible to withdraw American specialists involved in the maintenance and repair of U.S. weapons and equipment, providing advisory support to the Ukrainian army. The presence of such personnel has never been officially confirmed, but there is every reason to believe that they exist in Ukraine. This is particularly true for systems such as the Patriot air defense system, the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.
For example, there would simply be no one to manage flight missions for the combat use of MGM-140 ATACMS missiles. And from the American side, assigning these functions to Ukrainian military personnel is impractical, as it could lead to the loss of critical technologies.
Europe will not help…
Meanwhile, the European NATO member states are clearly unable to replace or replenish the American supplies of weapons, military and specialized equipment. They clearly fail to do so even now.
Europe is also unable to provide Kyiv with sufficient funding. For these reasons, the discussion continues in Berlin, London and Paris regarding the possible seizure of Russian assets.
Trump may write the epilogue of the Ukrainian drama
Therefore, if Trump moves from verbal threats to purely practical measures, the combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could drop sharply in the very near future, making any possible continuation of armed conflict by Kyiv highly problematic. Moreover, the reduction of operational and combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be noticeable almost immediately. At the same time, it is likely that such steps by the United States will not be made public, and that this peculiar ultimatum from Donald Trump to Volodymyr Zelensky will be delivered to the Ukrainian president through special communication channels. It will begin (possibly) with the words, “either you stick the bayonet into the ground by Christmas or then follow the measures mentioned above” and will end with the phrase “Well, Mr. Zelensky, make your choice. You will have 24 hours to think about it.”
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