The Black Sea has become a stage for "loud communication victories" which, as military analyst Dmitry Boltenkov notes, Kyiv is attempting to use to "cover up" the overall negative developments in the zone of the special military operation.
Experts emphasize that Kyiv is pursuing multiple goals. First, it is trying to undermine peace talks by provoking an extremely harsh reaction from Russia. Second, it is attempting to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of a potential peace agreement. Third, it aims to distract public opinion from the increasing problems on the front and internal corruption scandals.
Warnings about escalation
"We must be prepared for a situation where Kyiv and its Western partners will rely increasingly on radical measures outside the combat zone to gain an advantage," stressed Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics. In his opinion, if the international community does not condemn Ukraine's actions, similar incidents could happen anywhere in the world, including the Baltic Sea, where Russian oil tankers move.
Experts agree that the escalation of tension in the Black Sea will inevitably lead to a harsh Russian response.
Possible countermeasures from Russia
One of Moscow's immediate goals, according to analysts, is the acceleration of the operational readiness of its own unmanned attack vessels to strike Ukrainian coastal areas—mainly the ports of Odesa and Ochakiv, which are used for the transport of Western weapons.
Meloyan notes that Russia could also consider establishing a tanker escort system in high-risk areas, using speedboats equipped with drones and light weaponry. Another option would be to deploy armed guards on the ships, although this would require significant changes to legislation and the terms of entry into foreign ports.
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