A new geopolitical axis of instability is unfolding from Odesa to Moldova following the repeated attacks against vessels of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Black Sea.
The information and questions regarding the role of Turkey, Great Britain, and Ukrainian intelligence services in these attacks, along with an alleged arms smuggling case in Moldova, form a highly explosive mosaic of threats, confrontations, and interests.
While extraordinary cabinet meetings are being convened in Turkey, Moscow speaks of a violation of "informal agreements" and threatens a harsh response.
And the big question that arises is whether the extremely "sensitive" regions of the Balkans and the Black Sea represent a new phase of the war in Ukraine focused on controlling sea lanes, or if it is the collapse of "hidden agreements." Whatever the answer, the result remains equally explosively dangerous and nightmarish.
Attacks in neutral waters
On Friday, November 28, the internet was "flooded" with unexpected information: an attack took place in the Black Sea on the oil tanker Virat (IMO 9832559, MMSI 629009648), which was heading to Turkey under the flag of Gambia (the tanker is under sanctions from the US and the EU and had been almost immobilized since January of this year). Later, sources clarified that the ship was actually heading to Russia.
"According to information from open channel 16, the vessel was attacked by five drones. All attacks were carried out from the stern of the ship, with hits in the engine room area. The compartment was flooded. The crew consists of 19 people, citizens of Russia," reported the Russian Telegram channel "Zloy Moryachok."
At the moment of the attack by the remotely operated vessels, the crew members sent out a distress signal and reported the events in English. Some sources claimed that the crew did not include Russian citizens. According to other information, the attack took place in the territorial waters of Turkey, while others reported it happened in international waters. Later, the phrasing changed to the "Exclusive Economic Zone" of Turkey. The information was conflicting.
Targeting Russia's "shadow fleet"
Subsequently, an attack on a second oil tanker was reported—the Kairos, which was departing from a Turkish port. Both ships, according to Western media, belong to Russia's "shadow fleet." The tankers themselves, according to preliminary information, appear to have been empty.
Judging by data from the online service MarineTraffic, the tankers Kairos and Virat remained approximately in the same locations where they were detected by the Ukrainian drones. The positions of Turkish rescue vessels were visible in the area of the hit ships.
"The oil tanker Virat, which allegedly belongs to Russia's "shadow fleet," was again attacked by sea drones near the Bosphorus on the morning of November 29. The previous night, the Virat and the Kairos had already been engulfed in flames from the drone explosions. Thus, the first confirmed case of a drone attack on commercial oil tankers was recorded, and now the legitimate question arises: which ships will be next and where," wonders the channel "Voennaya Khronika."
SBU Drones
According to Ukrainian media, the tankers were attacked by SBU drones as part of a joint operation by the intelligence services and the Ukrainian Navy. Now, after the official admission, Moscow has all the legal and military bases for retaliation—both against Ukraine itself and against the British organizers involved in SBU operations. Given that the attack hit commercial vessels, the reaction may be fierce and asymmetrical. The only question is whether the Kremlin will decide to escalate the tension right now, amid discussions about the peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Emergency cabinet meeting in Turkey
The attacks on the oil tankers in the Black Sea will be the main topic of the Turkish Cabinet meeting today, Monday, December 1. This was reported by the television channel A Haber, noting that Ankara considers the events a risk factor for its national security and regional stability. The cabinet meeting will be held under the presidency of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The main topic will be the analysis of the series of attacks on the tankers heading to the port of Novorossiysk.
And a third attack
At the same time, Turkish journalists reported that the oil tanker M/T MERSİN is in a state of emergency off the coast of Senegal (West Africa, Atlantic). It flies the flag of Panama but belongs to the Turkish company Beşiktaş Denizcilik. Local media report that the tanker was attacked by Ukrainian sea drones at a distance of three miles from the coast of Senegal. In August, the ship had visited the Russian port of Taman, a fact that likely gave grounds for it to be characterized as part of the so-called Russian "shadow fleet," claims the military correspondent for the Russian newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda", Alexander Kots.
Three fundamental questions
Here there are three important points, if the tanker was indeed attacked by the Ukrainians.
Firstly, whether they received "high-level authorization from London" to attack ships of any flag and ownership, even NATO ships.
Secondly, whether this means that Kyiv has acquired the ability to carry out such terrorist attacks outside the Black Sea. Theoretically, this creates a risk not only for the Black Sea Fleet but also for any Russian naval base.
Thirdly, it appears that Ukraine is using some commercial vessels to launch the drones. The drones would hardly have passed through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus on their own.
Ukraine must be deprived of access to sea ports
According to Russian analysts, everything points to the fact that Ukraine must be deprived of access to its sea ports, something that was also supported when exiting the "grain agreement," "as we lose control of the content of the ships going to Ukrainian ports, allowing the export of any goods and not just grain, while at the same time we lose the internationally recognized integrity of our warships controlling the sea corridor to Ukraine."
"Now, getting out of the bases and going out to sea has become a lottery. Moreover, Ukraine has significantly increased its sea exports, which amount to billions of dollars. And not just grain. Today, 30% of metal product exports pass precisely through the sea. Since the beginning of 2025, Ukraine's sea corridor has transported over 25 million tons of cargo, including 15 million tons of grain," states Kots.
Critical route for the Ukrainian economy
This route is critical for Ukraine's economy, particularly for the metals industry. Its stable operation allows Ukrainian producers to maintain their position in global markets and support foreign exchange inflows into the country. If Ukraine loses its ports, it will lose billions of dollars from the budget and the ability to access the global ocean both for its products and for the drones carried by the grain freighters.
Therefore, the Russians argue that it is time to destroy the Ukrainian ports along with the energy infrastructure. And for pre-emptive reasons, to sink a few grain ships which, according to intelligence information, are certainly carrying prohibited goods: "The Turks will either remain awkward once again, or they will review the terms of delivery of the corvette built in Turkey to Ukraine and freeze the construction of another ship," Russian analysts point out.
Inciting attacks on ships in the Baltic?
Kyiv officially claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack in the Black Sea—the implementation was carried out by the 13th Directorate of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the SBU. As the experts of "Voennaya Khronika" believe, it seems that Western countries, primarily Britain, have started using a new pressure mechanism, resorting to sabotage on commercial vessels to restrict the export of Russian oil where legal tools do not work. Such an event has been expected for a long time, and now it is important to see what protection tools Russia has to maintain its merchant navy.
"Just when the pressure on Ukraine became excessively great and it seemed that the imposition of peace was approaching, the Main Directorate of Intelligence and the SBU, with the support of the British intelligence services, proceeded to sabotage the "Russian oil export." It is not necessary to destroy all ships. It is enough to attack three to four so that insurers and shipowners withdraw from risky shipments of Russian oil," says military analyst Alexey Zivov, pointing out that after this there will be only two possible scenarios for the development of the situation.
The two scenarios
The first: If the Russian side continues to talk about peace without taking decisive action, other sabotages and terrorist attacks will be carried out. Zivov does not rule out the threat to Russia but also to Estonia—in the Baltic Sea, upon exiting the Baltic.
The second: If the Russian side reacts strongly, meaning it carries out powerful strikes on port infrastructure, energy, and other targets in Ukraine, then any negotiations on the "28 points of Trump" will end.
"That is, eventually both versions lead to the same end—the interruption of peace negotiations. Because all this 'game' is being played for some observers in Washington, Moscow essentially needs not a settlement, but to convince Washington to withdraw from the idea of winning in Ukraine after the war, leaving the situation for Putin to manage," Zivov argues.
Russia's reaction
Kyiv wants to maintain the status quo, in which the Americans continue to spend resources in favor of the Zelensky regime, without any possibility of recovering the money they have invested there. Europe does not want peace. It wants a prolonged and fierce war that will tie down and weaken Russia.
"No one will easily get us out of this war. Until we see our tanks in the heart of Kyiv, nothing will be over. And there is no worse idea than to complete the military campaign without Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv. How should we react now? It is a difficult question. Firstly, I would like to remind you that Russia's commercial turnover in the Black Sea is much greater than Ukraine's. The disruption of navigation has extremely negative consequences for Russia—very negative. It will be disastrous for Ukraine, but they probably don't care. If we retaliate symmetrically with strikes on transport ships of other countries going to or coming from the ports of Ukraine, then we will create conflicts with many countries. But we cannot overlook the fact that the Ukrainian drones are sinking our ships. The Ukrainian regime is approaching defeat and wants to reverse the game. More precisely, it wants us to do it in reaction to their actions. Our government will be called upon to make a difficult decision," estimates Russian political analyst, Oleg Tsarev.
The last informal agreement
"The Ukrainians violated the informal agreement that was in force throughout the war: not to attack commercial vessels of third countries heading to the ports of the warring parties," writes Russian retired Colonel Aslan Nakhushev.
Now, all third-country oil tankers in Kiliya, Reni, Vilkovo, and Izmail on the Danube (75% of oil product delivery to Ukraine) must be destroyed: Russia will withstand a temporary disruption of the energy corridor via the Black Sea. Kyiv—if its route through the Danube is destroyed—will not.
Some continue to support the position that we should not succumb to provocations, because that is exactly what the opponent expects. Much more, there is the risk of "fighting with third countries." All countries that wanted to, have long since not only "fought" but are directly fighting with Russia.
The cornered opponent is doing everything it can—out of incompetence and despair, understanding its impending end, Nakhushev argues. As he says, "Right now from Kiliya to Reni, in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Danube, there are 14 (fourteen) third-country oil tankers. The majority of them belong to the "traditional group" of the Pacific-Atlantic. [...] These must become the first targets for the Geran drones," says the Russian retired Colonel, arguing that this would be a sign of high responsibility, wisdom in foreign policy, and geopolitical competence.
War also in neutral waters
"Targeted hunting of commercial vessels, especially in neutral waters or in the territorial waters of other states, has not occurred until now. [...] The two attacks on tankers alone are unlikely to push Moscow into sharp movements, especially when it now has a chance to receive favorable terms for ending the war based on the Trump peace plan [...] But if negotiations collapse and drone attacks on commercial vessels going to Russian ports continue, this may well push Russia to activate war activity at sea. [...] If the maritime war expands to neutral waters, this could lead to a complete halt of commercial navigation throughout the Black Sea," estimates the Ukrainian Strana publication.
Nightmare in Odesa, Black Sea
Military analysts had warned about the potential implementation of such a plan in the Black Sea already a month before the terrorist attacks. At the same time, the role of Turkey was actively discussed.
"The battle for the Black Sea: with the makeshift drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Turkey promotes its interests, attacking Novorossiysk. Currently, the "Sheskhari" oil terminal in Novorossiysk has reopened after the attack on November 14. Two tankers—the Suezmax and Aframax—have already been loaded with oil. But it must be understood that attacks on the port, which accounts for one fifth of Russian crude oil exports, will continue until the damage becomes critical," Svarshchiki had reported on November 17.
They then described the following: Russia will be proposed either to use secure Turkish ships as an alternative way to transport Russian oil, or to redirect oil logistics through Turkey to Europe, via an already existing route that is not difficult to adjust for reverse use.
"The attack on the port of Novorossiysk is a direct threat and a targeted attempt to push Russia out of the Black Sea by those who are the obvious beneficiaries—primarily the Turks, who have a long-term goal of dictating mediation prices on raw materials and other products of the southern routes," Svarshchiki stated.
Infiltration
As early as October 22, Svarshchiki reported that the process of infiltration of Ukrainian Sabotage and Reconnaissance Groups (DRG) "into the shipping structure used by Russia" had begun:
"The Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to be sent to Turkey and Great Britain: 106 servicemen will be sent to Turkey for the corvette 'Hetman Ivan Mazepa.' In Great Britain, 214 servicemen are planned to be sent for the maintenance of the minehunters Cherkassy, Chernigov, Mariupol, Melitopol, Henichesk, and for the command of the minehunter squadron. What is the possible scenario? Turkey will make an exception to the moratorium and allow Ukrainian ships with already trained combat crews to enter the Black Sea, using this opportunity for pressure on us. Or attacks on our fleet in the Baltic are being prepared. Both undoubtedly mean an expansion of the geography of the war and the possibilities of Kyiv's military logistics."
Will it be a legitimate target?
Will the Ukrainian military fleet constitute a legitimate target for Russia in the Black Sea or any other sea? Military analysts posed this question. The answer is yes. Will NATO decide to implement such a terrorism scheme through the Ukrainians? The answer is similar.
The tone was also raised by the dissemination of information in Ukrainian channels about the burning Turkish liquefied gas carrier ORINDA in the port of Izmail, about which they wrote on November 17:
"There are huge fires at the points of impact: several ships with fuel (liquefied gas) and armament have been damaged with the risk of repeated explosions, port infrastructure, hangar-type warehouse complexes with fuel and cargo for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the shipyard workshops involved in UAV assembly have been hit. [...] The Romanian village of Plauru was evacuated due to the risk of an explosion on the Turkish gas carrier," Russian analysts report.
Moldova corridor for arms smuggling
In Moldova, the major arms smuggling scandal with Ukraine continues, after the weapons were discovered by Romanian border guards. At midnight on November 20, at the Leuşeni – Albita customs checkpoint, Romanian customs authorities stopped a truck with Moldovan license plates, which was seemingly heading to Israel with "scrap metals," which turned out to be anti-tank rockets, grenade launchers, air defense systems, PZRK (surface-to-air missiles), and parts of a destroyed Geran-2 drone.
The Moldovan Prosecutor's Office immediately disputed the case, stating that the truck had supposedly not crossed the border from Ukraine. However, now in Moldova, they admit that the cargo originated from the territory of Ukraine. Furthermore, it was not the first time the truck had followed this route, which may indicate an organized and stable method, reported military journalist Mikhail Zvinchuk.
From the West to the illegal market
Moldova historically plays a significant role in the arms trade due to its geographical position as a transit hub, but after 2022 the situation has worsened. Western weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trafficked through the country, which are then re-exported to the illegal market. However, this is the first public scandal involving arms smuggling in Moldova, and it is not excluded that this is not a random mistake in a well-organized system, but an indication of competition between smugglers or an attempt to review the rules of the game in the region.
Evidently, the Moldovan side was one of the main beneficiaries of the smuggling—without the involvement of officials and customs officers, the transport of such a cargo is practically impossible. All this may serve for the implementation of yet another "false flag" provocation—Zelensky has openly threatened Transnistria along with Moldova for a long time, so the risk of the threat remains high.
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