The description “sent by God” that was attributed to Vladimir Putin by leaders of Central Asia was not merely a compliment, it was a harbinger of the geopolitical developments that followed.
With lightning-fast moves, Moscow is attempting to “lock down” the Caucasus, activating new alliances and military programs that change the balance of power in the region.
At the same time, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is strengthening the newly formed “Turkish NATO”, an ambition that provokes strong reaction in the Kremlin.
Putin’s response is not limited to rhetoric, it is strategic, targeted, and, above all, cautionary.
In the Caucasus, the power game has only just begun.
Specifically, Russia announced that it plans to launch a comprehensive armament program for the armed forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), aiming to strengthen military readiness and upgrade air defense systems.
The relevant statement was made by Vladimir Putin during the Organization’s summit in Bishkek.
The Russian president emphasized that Moscow seeks to improve the command and control of the CSTO military contingent, while noting that the development of air forces and air defense systems is a key priority of the Russian presidency in 2026.
At the same time, he stated that Russia plans to deepen cooperation among member states in the field of the defense industry, so that the Organization maintains technological superiority.
Putin’s statements are considered a reflexive move following recent talks between Central Asian leaders and the president of the United States, Donald Trump, as explained by the military analyst and retired colonel Viktor Litovkin.
He recalled that Trump received a warm welcome from the region’s leaders, with the president of Kazakhstan, Tokayev, describing him as “sent by God”.
However, he noted that Russia had for years been supplying the equipment of CSTO countries at particularly low prices, often at factory-cost levels.
The need for modernization
According to Litovkin, Putin’s statement is part of the effort to maintain Russian influence in the region, since the equipment of the Central Asian republics needs upgrading.
At the same time, Russia seeks to prevent these countries from orienting themselves toward Chinese or Western weapons systems, given that the purchase of Russian equipment is accompanied by training cooperation and political influence.
Russian concerns are not limited to geopolitics.
The region possesses strategic deposits of rare earths, uranium, natural gas, and minerals.
Additionally, it constitutes the “underbelly” of Russia, an area from which threats have historically emerged against it.
Litovkin recalled the importance of the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan, noting that any Russian withdrawal would immediately create a security vacuum that could be filled by radical groups such as the Taliban.
Turkish and Azerbaijani activity
The expert Mikhail Alexandrov stated that Putin’s declaration is an indirect message to Turkey and Azerbaijan, which are strengthening the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), transforming it from a cultural into a politico-military framework, with joint exercises and armament programs.
Moscow is concerned that Ankara is attempting to create a “Turkish NATO”, capable of influencing Russia’s Turkic-speaking territories, such as Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, through sabotage networks or extremist cells.
According to Alexandrov, the Russian military-industrial complex has now acquired such momentum that, after the end of the fighting in Ukraine, it will either have to reduce production or shift toward exports.
Supplying equipment to the CSTO countries is expected to take place at Russian, and not international, prices, without however affecting the profitability of the companies.
Putin’s initiative constitutes an attempt to strengthen allied cohesion, but also to provide preventive shielding of Central Asia against the penetration of the United States, China, and Turkey.
At the same time, it refutes the Western narrative that Russia is planning aggressive actions in the region.
According to Alexandrov, Kazakhstan continues to maintain an allied relationship with Moscow, despite certain political divergences, while claims that Russia is planning an attack on the country are “absolutely unfounded”.
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