The situation surrounding the war in Ukraine has reached a new crossroads, as the negotiations for ending the war, which intensified after the emergence of the United States peace plan, are once again at an impasse.
Kyiv does not accept some of the fundamental points that are crucial for Russia, and Moscow does not want to make concessions on these points.
These concern issues such as limiting the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the end of the war, Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO, and, most critically, the transfer of the entire Donetsk region to Russia.
Plan 1: Strategy of long-term prolongation of the war in Ukraine
Ukraine, at the present stage, maintains the strategy of prolonging the war, hoping that Russia’s forces will be exhausted.
The basic thought is that as long as the war continues, the internal contradictions and problems in Russia, social, ethnic, etc., combined with the sanctions and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian infrastructure, will damage the economy and state revenues.
The heavy sacrifices at the front and the need for conscription could trigger protests and a sharp rise in sociopolitical tension.
The result would be destabilization, chaos, and the collapse of the army and the state inside Russia, opening the way for a military victory for Ukraine, notes Strana.
This is an absolutely unrealistic plan, since Ukraine is already facing these problems at an acute stage while at the same time Western support is decreasing due to the fatigue of their societies.
Plan 2: Limiting Russia’s ability to continue the war
Ukraine’s strategy at the mid-level seeks to restrict Russia’s ability to continue the war.
If Russia does not collapse entirely but is limited in its ability to push forward and expand operations, then Ukraine will be able to demand a ceasefire along the front line, under terms better for Ukraine than those Russia currently proposes.
This strategy is based on the idea that Russia, while not collapsing completely, would weaken enough to be forced to agree to an end to the war on terms more favorable to Ukraine.
This is also a utopian plan, since neither the course of the special military operation nor the Russian economy justify the expectations of the Ukrainian planners.
Plan 3: Ukrainian retreat
The minimum-reference strategy assumes that Russia will occupy the entire Donetsk region and possibly advance into other regions within 1–2 years.
If Russia manages to secure these territories, Ukraine will have the ability to end the war along the front line, saving face and invoking the capability of its army to weaken Russian forces and halt the advance.
However, this scenario assumes that Russia will not attempt to set new territorial demands.
This scenario is also unrealistic, since Moscow’s ultimate goal is Odessa and shifting the new Ukrainian state into the Russian sphere of influence.
Plan 4: Long-term war against Russia jointly with Europe
Ukraine’s strategy for the continuation of the war aligns with the policy of the major European countries, where the view prevails that the longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the better, because “Putin will not have the strength to attack Europe”.
Despite doubts about this assessment, the major European countries believe that Russia will weaken significantly as long as the conflict continues.
However, this strategy can be applied only if the integrity of the front is maintained, if Ukraine continues to receive steady external financing, if energy remains operational, and if the United States does not put strong pressure on Ukraine to accept the terms of peace.
If any of these conditions is not met, then this strategy may collapse.
For example, if Europe does not agree on a reconstruction plan for Ukraine by the end of the year, this could serve as a signal for Kyiv to make concessions and accept the peace terms.
Contradictions inside Ukraine, dangers and consequences, the 4th plan is hell
One of the main contradictions inside Ukraine is the criticism from part of the political world which estimates that the strategy of prolonging the war is not viable and that Ukraine should agree to the United States peace plan.
These critics emphasize that Ukraine risks suffering much greater damage if it waits for Russia’s collapse.
In particular, if Russia manages to reach the borders of the Donetsk region, there are no guarantees that it will agree to end the war without setting new territorial demands.
Furthermore, there is the danger that Russia may turn to nuclear weapons, something that would have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine and the world.
Especially if the conflict expands with NATO entering the war, then it may turn into a global nuclear catastrophe.
The current situation and the future of Europe
Despite the differing views inside Ukraine, the situation remains extremely uncertain.
Any decision about the future of the war will depend on the changes of the strategic landscape, international pressures, and the stability of the front.
The stance of Ukraine will depend to a large extent on the continuing European financing and the American strategic pressure, as well as on the ability of Russia to continue military operations.
If the United States insist on harsh pressure, Ukraine may be forced to make concessions, but its strategy for the future could prove disastrous if the terms of peace become much harsher than they are now.
Ukraine will be sacrificed for Zelensky
Amid intense military clashes, the country is called to manage simultaneously external pressures from Russia and the United States, as well as internal political balances that determine the direction of the conflict.
Ukraine’s strategy for continuing the war, despite the growing difficulties, is based on the belief that slowing down the Russian offensive and exhausting Russian resources may lead to a more favorable negotiation for Ukraine.
However, the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the sacrifices for the country become, human losses increase, the economy is severely damaged, and the destruction of infrastructure is enormous. As mentioned earlier, the strategy of a war of attrition hides the reality that Ukraine is being exhausted faster than Russia.
Ukraine, at this stage of the war, depends completely on the continued support of its Western allies, primarily the United States and the European Union.
The strategy of the United States is clear, to force Ukraine into concessions, using the idea that the longer the conflict is delayed, the worse the conditions will be for Kyiv.
The reason for this pressure is that Ukraine, without doubt, has enormous needs in terms of military aid, economic support, and political backing.
The strategy of prolonging the war and the 4 plans serves entirely the usurper president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and his goal to remain in power through authoritarianism and repression so that the anger of society does not erupt against him.
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