The US decision designating the so-called Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization has come into effect. According to US authorities, this specific drug cartel is allegedly headed by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro himself. This move increases the pressure on the leadership of the Latin American country.
As CNN reported, President Donald Trump intends to force Maduro out of power without resorting to military action. However, analysts who spoke to Nezavisimaya Gazeta estimate that his removal remains unlikely.
Trump is pressuring
The US government argues that the designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization significantly expands the scope of action for the competent US authorities. Counter-terrorism operations provide a mechanism that allows the US to justify actions that, under other circumstances, could be considered violations of international law. This concerns both the possibility of direct intervention in Venezuela and strikes on vessels in the Caribbean. These operations began in September 2025, have already caused more than 80 deaths, and are attributed to an effort to strengthen the American presence.
Psychological pressure
CNN reported, citing a well-informed source, that this specific decision also aims to increase psychological pressure on Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump hopes to achieve regime change in Venezuela without a military invasion, by investing in coordinated sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and negotiating pressure.
According to Dmitry Rozental, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a possible voluntary withdrawal of Maduro from the presidency does not seem realistic at this time. As he noted, voluntary withdrawal would be the "optimal scenario" for the US to secure concessions from Venezuela without military cost. He stressed that a military operation would have a high price for the US, both in military resources and political consequences, as it would provoke intense reactions in many Latin American countries. For this reason, Washington would prefer a negotiated solution, although the crucial question is whether Maduro and his inner circle are ready for such a path.
The potential trade-offs
The potential negotiation being discussed in international news reports could include a series of concessions from Venezuela's side. In the energy and oil sector, this may entail special privileges for American capital and a potential replacement of Russian and Chinese business interests. Rozental pointed out that such a scenario would mean a high risk for the chavistas, as they would rely exclusively on the US, which would create unilateral dependencies.
In the political sphere, the discussion could concern the operation of US government organizations within Venezuela, primarily the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). Rozental underlined that such a development would not provide substantial gains for Washington, but would serve symbolically as a message of strengthening US influence in the region.
The main message of the analysis suggests that sanctions may intensify, political pressure may peak, but the prospect of Nicolas Maduro's departure remains, according to experts, extremely uncertain and rather distant.
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