Trump has announced the grandiose plan for the creation of the "Golden Dome," a missile defense system that is supposed to be capable of protecting the country from every missile threat—from ballistic missiles to hypersonic weapons. However, behind the impressive declarations lies a huge deadlock: technical problems, delays, and explosive costs threaten to turn the ambitious plan into a fiasco, leaving the Pentagon scrambling against time while Russia and China are already developing their own strategic weapons. The "shield that will save the US" is in danger of being left in the air, and American defense may ultimately prove to be a myth.
National shield
According to the plan, the new missile defense system, which is scheduled for completion in 3 years, will be divided into several layers, each responding to specific threats. It was announced that the "Golden Dome" will be able to effectively protect the continental US from ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles. The Israeli "Iron Dome" was chosen as the basis of the architecture. The American defense industry is tasked with adapting this fairly compact system to the scale of the United States.
Cost well over $175 billion
The "Iron Dome" is primarily intended for intercepting makeshift rockets and missiles, reminds Breaking Defense expert, Casey Lafman. "The American version of the system will be much more complex and cover a much larger area. Creating this national shield will require overcoming a series of mechanical and technical obstacles. It is very likely that the project will cost much more than the declared $175 billion."
Problem with interceptors
One of the problems the program is already facing is delays in the development of a new interceptor for the ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile). Currently, the basis of US strategic missile defense is 60 ground-based GBMD interceptors, installed in California and Alaska. These can intercept ballistic targets in the mid-course phase of flight. Targeting is done via an early warning radar system, and missile neutralization is done head-on via kinetic collision. However, tests showed insufficient effectiveness: the interception of a "training" target was successful only in half of the cases.
No solution
This was completely unsatisfactory to the Pentagon, and in the middle of the last decade, the development of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV) began to replace the existing interceptors. Washington allocated $5.8 billion. Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin were expected to complete the project by 2025, but in August of last year, the missile defense agency canceled the contract due to "design problems."
Unrealistic plans
The Pentagon launched a new project—the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI). This interceptor is three-stage, solid-fuel, with a range of at least 15 thousand kilometers. Accuracy will be increased thanks to course correction via GPS. Each ICBM will carry a bundle of decoys to overload the missile defense. The NGI was expected to enter service by 2030, but the near-doubling of the cost delayed the program. It is obvious that the system will not be ready for mass production before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term, so the full launch of the "Golden Dome" over the next three years is not realistic.
Space layer
Intercepting ICBMs moving in a predictable trajectory is not the most difficult challenge for the "Golden Dome." It is much harder to counter cruise missiles with the ability to choose different routes, as well as hypersonic weapons, which develop enormous speed. These targets are difficult to detect, track, and destroy.
This requires a completely new early warning system. The largest part of the resources for the "Golden Dome" will likely be spent on creating the space layer of the future missile defense, for which the Space Force, created during Trump's first term, will be responsible. Even then, Washington was concerned about intercepting new Russian missiles. The existing satellite system is not enough for detecting hypersonic targets.
The core of the Golden Dome
"Satellites will form the core of the Golden Dome," explains military analyst Alexey Leonkov. "They plan to launch them on a mass scale—they were talking about approximately 2,000. They will feature sensitive sensors, be united in a single network, and placed in different orbits. The more satellites "see" the hypersonic rocket, the greater the chance of determining its trajectory and transmitting the data for interception. The whole structure will be maximally automated thanks to artificial intelligence," states Leonkov.
Weapons in space
According to the expert, the US can increase the satellite group by 2030, with the help of the Pentagon and private contractors like Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin. Regarding the placement of interceptor weapons in space, things are more complicated. The American advanced defense research agency DARPA proposed a few years ago the installation of 20 orbiting platforms with 8 MW lasers, which would destroy warheads before they re-enter the atmosphere. However, the cost of each platform was estimated at $81 billion, and the issue of creating a small nuclear reactor of such power has not been resolved.
Threats of the future
Beyond technical difficulties, the implementation of the "Golden Dome" can also create external tensions. Any major US military initiative will be closely monitored by Russia and China, which may develop countermeasures.
"The Golden Dome can be considered an attempt to circumvent the principle of mutually assured destruction, which is a fragile balance between nuclear powers," estimates CSIS expert, Tom Karako. "If Russia and China consider this balance to be voided, they may seek ways—not necessarily nuclear—to gain an advantage in a major conflict, bypassing the Golden Dome. These strategies may be kinetic—e.g., attacks on satellites—or based on cyberwarfare and electronic warfare."
Leaky defense
In any case, it is doubtful that the "Golden Dome" will constitute a reliable defense against the Russian strategic arsenal in the immediate future. Moscow has already put into service systems that can certainly penetrate existing and future missile defenses—and technology does not stand still. When the American missile defense becomes operational, Russia will likely already have new means of attack.
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