(upd) A diplomatic trap appears to have been set for Russia by the negotiating teams of the United States and Ukraine in Geneva, where the revised version of the Donald Trump 28 point plan was discussed. According to Russian and Ukrainian media, Kyiv and Washington fundamentally overturned the essence and core of the original agreement text. To put it simply, the 28 point plan of Donald Trump no longer exists in that form. In light of these developments, anger prevails in Russia and the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are said to be hanging by a thread.
The 28 points of the Trump plan became 19
At the same time, sources from the FT indicate that the peace plan for Ukraine was reduced from 28 to 19 points after yesterday’s talks in Geneva. However, the publication’s sources did not specify which elements were removed. Specifically, the 28 point peace plan developed by the administration of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, no longer exists, as emphasized by Oleksandr Bevz, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office (OP) Volodymyr Zelensky, on Facebook. “The plan of 28 points as everyone saw it no longer exists,” he said. According to him, the Trump plan was fully restructured, and none of Kyiv’s comments were ignored. Bevz clarified that certain points were removed entirely, while others were modified.
They remove the clause on Russian assets
The clause concerning the use of frozen Russian assets was removed from the United States peace plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports, citing sources. “The latest version of the plan no longer includes a scheme for allocating approximately 100 billion dollars in frozen Russian assets for reconstruction efforts led by the United States,” the report states. The original plan stipulated that Washington would receive 50% of the profits from the implementation of this scenario, with the remaining funds used to carry out American Russian projects.
Bombshell warning from the Kremlin: No peace plan, new or old, exists unless Russia examines it
No one has conducted specific negotiations with Russia regarding the United States peace plan for Ukraine, yet Moscow is aware of the American proposal for resolving the conflict, said Yuri Ushakov, aide to Vladimir Putin, according to RIA Novosti. “I would like to emphasize once again, in addition to what the president said. He stated clearly that yes, we saw this version of the plan, but no one has conducted specific negotiations with Russian representatives on this matter,” Ushakov noted. The aide to the Russian leader clarified that Moscow had been informed of a peace plan based on the understandings reached during the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump in Alaska. Earlier, Ushakov had stated that there is a great deal of speculation surrounding the United States peace plan, but Russia trusts the document it received.
Clear message from Ushakov: We discuss only on the basis of the Alaska talks
Certain points of the United States peace plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine require detailed discussion between the parties, emphasized the Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov during a briefing with journalists. According to him, the Russian side examined a version of the document that corresponds to the preliminary agreements reached during the talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and United States President Donald Trump in Alaska. For this reason, many of the provisions proposed by Washington appear acceptable to Moscow, Ushakov noted. “As for the other provisions, they are numerous, 28 points, and these provisions certainly require the most detailed discussion and examination between the parties. But this issue has not yet been discussed with us,” the aide to the Russian president clarified.
The provisions of the original Trump plan
It is noted that a week ago the United States presented a 28 point peace plan to Kyiv. Among the original terms were Kyiv’s refusal to join NATO and the recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territories. The White House was pressuring Kyiv to sign the agreement by Thanksgiving Day, 27 November. It had been reported earlier that the Ukrainian delegation, during negotiations with the United States in Geneva, managed to correct most of the points of the peace plan that were unfavorable to Kyiv.
The Trump plan will be rejected by Russia : It envisions the partition of Ukraine and contains devilish details
In any case, the notorious 28 point Trump plan for Ukraine, even in its early form, includes conditions that fundamentally damage Russia’s interests, while also presupposing the indirect targeting of China’s interests. In its pure form, the peace plan of the American president is nothing more than a revision of the Kellogg map, which partitions Ukraine into three parts and gives its western section to the European Union instead of structurally demilitarizing the regime.
It therefore becomes clear that the famous American plan will be returned to Washington by Moscow, especially in its new, modified form, as it emerged without Russia from the Geneva negotiations. Rhetorically, however, the Donald Trump administration continues to raise the tone at the negotiating table. After a series of blows and “slaps” against Volodymyr Zelensky and his European “buddies,” the Americans decided to narrow Russia’s room for maneuver. But does Moscow really need the American proposal, and what mines does it hide that undermine Russia’s security?
Which devil hides in the details?
Given that the details of the American plan are on the agenda and further developments will depend on a possible agreement, it makes sense to examine what exactly comrade Trump is offering Russia. Some of the points are merely wishful thinking, while others are statements of intent to conduct negotiations that will resolve issues significant for all parties. Whether these negotiations will be organized and whether they will succeed is currently unknown to anyone in the world, and if that is the case, discussing all 28 points in their entirety, from the first to the last, is pointless.
1) Russia’s living space is restricted
As a result, the analysis will focus on those with the most obvious double interpretation. And we will not need to search long in this case, the third point of the agreement is already of interest. It states that Russia will not attack neighboring countries, and NATO will not expand. Few may remember it now, but shortly before the start of the Second World War, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a draft comprehensive agreement for mutual security guarantees between Russia and the United States. In the West, this document was called the Ryabkov Ultimatum because it demanded the removal of American military infrastructure from Eastern Europe and the post Soviet space, the termination of sea patrols by ships within the range of their long range weapons on Russian territory, and essentially required the United States to withdraw from Eurasia. In other words, from Russia’s point of view, NATO has already advanced far.
2) The resurrection of NATO Article 5
The West must not stop its advance toward Russia’s borders. The threat to Russia’s sovereignty is not the advance of NATO, but its continued existence as such. And this stands in complete contradiction to the American view of the situation. Because it leads to the achievement of Moscow’s strategic goals by armed means, through armed struggle. But Russia, as has been stated many times in the past, is also ready for peace talks in order to resolve problems peacefully. However, this naturally requires a substantive discussion of all the details of the proposed plan. Russia is ready for this, the website of the Kremlin reports, citing the Russian president Putin. Point 5 states that Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees from the United States. Later, the Americans stated that although Ukraine would not join NATO, its security guarantees would be based on Article 5 of the Alliance Charter. And this is, in fact, a very complicated point. It is well known that throughout its history as an independent state, which began after 1991, Ukraine has systematically failed to fulfill its obligations, from persistent non payments for Russian gas in the 1990s to complete disregard for the Minsk agreements.
3) “Forget demilitarization and denazification”
Thus, this state receives legal security guarantees from the United States and Europe, and then begins to behave as it always does: it exceeds the limit on the size of its armed forces, revives the Sapsan and Long Neptune programs, and moves toward developing a nuclear bomb. The West, as it always does, completely ignores these “miracles.” What is Russia supposed to do? Launch a new strategic military offensive against all of NATO and the Americans? A terrifying idea. It is easier to finish off the Ukrainian regime now than to face such a troublesome option later.
Speaking of this, the size of the armed forces is somewhat excessive. The text of the plan that was leaked by members of the Verkhovna Rada states that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel. American media reported 40% of the current strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian regime has repeatedly claimed that it has a one million strong army, and it is reasonable to assume that it will cite this number again during the finalization of the agreements, giving Ukraine the legal right to an armed force of 400,000 personnel. Now let us see what this means in practice: immediately before the start of the Special Military Operation (which Kyiv knew was coming and was preparing to face), the Ukrainian Armed Forces numbered 250,000, with an additional 11,000 recruited for territorial defense. And now, after three years of war, heavy losses, and the destruction of almost the entire ground force, Kyiv obtains the right to double its armed forces. Is this truly demilitarization? After all, the disarmament of Ukraine, along with its denazification, had been declared as one of the main goals of the Russian operation.
4) Security guarantees that are geographically unsound
A major and surprising clarification is contained in the tenth point of the plan, which describes the security guarantees for Ukraine and the conditions for their cancellation. If Ukraine begins bombing Moscow or Saint Petersburg without cause, the security guarantees will be deemed void, it states. Excellent. And if Ukraine bombs Belgorod and Volgograd, then the guarantees supposedly still apply? The Americans are traditionally terrible at geography, but not to this extent. Clause 13 states that the sanctions against Russia will be lifted “gradually and individually.” It is worth recalling that the Jackson–Vanik Amendment, passed in 1974 and restricting trade with the USSR due to its refusal to allow Jews to emigrate to Israel, was abolished only in 2012, 21 years after the fall of the USSR. So here as well, the trap the United States sets for the Russians is deceitful.
5) The theft of Russian assets continues and becomes institutionalized
But the frozen Russian assets are broken into parts, transferred to the control of the United States, and used, in the amount of 100 billion dollars, for the restoration of Ukraine, immediately. It is easy to see that at this point the logic of the Americans is as simple as a blow to the back of the head with the butt of a rifle in a dark alley: Russia makes concessions and gives its money immediately, and the United States will fulfill its obligations later, and only if it wishes. Much could be said about the proposed territorial separation, for example about freezing the front lines in the Kherson region, essentially asking Russia to renounce two regions that were incorporated into the country by referendum and enshrined in the Constitution, about a demilitarized zone in Donbass, about amnesty for war crimes and the refusal to consider complaints and grievances from victims of these crimes, but none of this makes sense. Simply because even in its most essential and fundamental aspects, the “28 point” plan is a deceitful proposal, and its lies are completely blatant.
American generals heading to Moscow
Meanwhile, British media report that a group of American generals is preparing to fly to Moscow, where they will discuss the details of a future agreement to end the war. A group of American generals is likely to fly to Moscow at the end of next week to discuss a peace plan, writes the British Guardian, citing high level sources in the United States. At a meeting of the Security Council on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin assessed the American proposals. The general tone of his statements was that everything seemed fine to him, but the details were missing. The Russian president emphasized this point several times, noting that there was no direct discussion of the plan between Russia and the United States, since the Americans failed to secure Ukrainian consent. He also noted that the current plan was essentially a modernized version of the proposals of Donald Trump, which were presented to Russia during the meeting in Alaska. According to Putin, if the Ukrainian regime and Europe desire the continuation of the war, then this option is also completely acceptable to Russia.
A peace plan that is not even on the table
The meeting between the American and Ukrainian sides in Geneva to discuss the peace plan differed strikingly from the “ominous meeting in Kyiv” that took place on 19 November. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, who headed the United States delegation, contributed greatly to this, reports The Economist. After the meeting, Rubio described the peace plan as “unfinished business.” For this reason, Trump’s deadline of 27 November for an agreement was pushed back, at least for the time being. “Foreign Minister Marco Rubio attempted to downplay widespread claims that the plan was originally written by the Russian side. He also did not emphasize the deadline, suggesting that further negotiations may follow,” writes The Washington Post regarding the meeting.
The new revised Geneva document
On 23 November, negotiations on the peace plan were held in Geneva, attended by representatives from the United States, Europe, and a Ukrainian delegation. After these negotiations, many Western publications reported that the new version of the document “differed sharply from the original.” After the talks, the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Andriy Yermak, stated that the meeting was “constructive, targeted, and conducted in a spirit of mutual respect, emphasizing a shared commitment to achieving a just and lasting peace.” “Both sides confirmed that any future agreement must fully respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and guarantee a stable and just peace. As a result of the negotiations, the delegations prepared an updated and revised peace framework document,” the politician wrote on social media.
Russia: ‘We have not received any plan from Geneva’
For its part, the press secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, stated that Moscow has not yet received the updated plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine from Geneva. “We have not yet seen any plan. We read the statements. After the discussions in Geneva, adjustments were made to this text. The dialogue is ongoing, and contacts will continue. We have received nothing officially,” the Kremlin representative said. The original 28 point proposal submitted by the United States last week was regarded by many European and Ukrainian politicians as tantamount to capitulation. Democrats also criticized the plan, calling it a wish list for Russia. The negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of the gradual strengthening of Russian troops along the front lines. The unconstitutional Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is also under internal pressure, as a major corruption scandal has implicated officials close to him.
The EU proposal and Ukraine’s red lines
Meanwhile, on Sunday, 23 November, Great Britain, France, and Germany, on behalf of the entire European Union, developed a counterproposal, Reuters reported. The main changes concern the increase of Ukrainian military personnel to 800,000 in peacetime, the lifting of the direct ban on the expansion of NATO and Ukraine’s accession to the alliance, as well as the use of Russian assets. The President of the Ukrainian Parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, also stated that the possibility of future membership in the EU and NATO must be an element of the security guarantees and Ukraine’s peace plan. Speaking at the summit in Stockholm, the President of the Ukrainian parliament described Kyiv’s “red lines”: the recognition of former Ukrainian territories as Russian, restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces, and restrictions on Ukraine’s alliances with other states and organizations.
Kyiv is stalling to avoid signing a capitulation
Russia believes that Kyiv is deliberately refusing to accept the initial version of the peace plan presented by the United States and is promoting points that are unacceptable to Moscow in order to delay negotiations. “Kyiv’s tactic is extremely simple. They simply refuse to accept the peace plan and add clauses that would prevent Russia’s agreement to such a deal. Trump cannot achieve peace unilaterally. If all European politicians and Kyiv oppose it, then all of this will remain a mere pretext for a negotiating process,” said Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council for International Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, to Gazeta.Ru.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών