Ukraine, Europe, and the US continue to discuss the Trump plan for the settlement of the conflict, with the coming days considered particularly critical for the outcome of this peace effort. According to Ukrainian media, in the recent negotiations in Geneva, representatives of Kyiv and Washington managed to agree on the majority of the provisions, although it is stressed that the most serious issues—such as the territorial question or the NATO membership scenario—are expected to be discussed during the imminent meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky.
Talks in Geneva
The delegations of the US and Ukraine in the Geneva negotiations managed to agree on the majority of points in the American settlement plan, and to amend a significant part of the contentious points, reported the agency "RBC-Ukraine," citing sources. At the same time, according to the report, certain points of the plan will be further discussed in person by the Presidents of the US and Ukraine, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Who is negotiating with whom?
Firstly, did the actual American plan really leak to the media? Is this common practice in inter-state negotiations: for the leaders not to have met yet, but for massive leaks of formulations and articles of crucial documents to have already occurred? It cannot be ruled out that in reality the "28 terms of Trump" are, to put it mildly, somewhat different.
Now, concerning the fact that the US and Ukrainian delegations "agreed" on the majority of points and "corrected" a significant part of the controversial issues. The most vague words in this news item are "agreed" and "corrected." Such formulations in texts intended for signature can only be discussed by parties possessing approximately equal military, economic, and financial capabilities.
Standing at attention
And if the Ukrainian budget consists of more than 40% subsidies from partners, then the representatives of Kyiv must stand at attention in such negotiations and listen to American-style statements such as: "Either you sign the plan, or [here there can be many versions: cessation of US funding, halt of weapons and military equipment supplies, refusal to provide intelligence, publication of materials that present President Zelensky, let's say, not in the best light, etc.]."
No ace up his sleeve
The head of Ukraine, as Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized, has no ace up his sleeve for such negotiations. Therefore, it is very likely—though only a hypothesis—that the American President gave the order to his delegation as follows: "Tell the President of Ukraine in a way he cannot refuse."
It must be said that even the details of the American plan that have become known to the media do not look at all like a surrender by Ukraine. That is to say, for Kyiv the American proposals constitute a rather compromise path. After all, the goal of Trump and his administration is to end the conflict in Ukraine in a way that is not considered a defeat for Kyiv nor a victory for Russia.
For appearance's sake
At the same time, Europe presented its own alternative plan, according to which the discussion about territorial exchange would happen after the ceasefire. It is interesting whom the Europeans intend to approach with this plan. To whom will they present it? To the US President? Trump's reaction is easy to predict. To the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin? It is certain that the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces will not even discuss such an issue with the Europeans. Thus, the European initiative looks rather like a plan "for appearance's sake" and nothing more.
The military
Finally, regarding the purely military aspects of the American and European plans. The European initiative provides for the limitation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to 800,000 personnel. The American version mentions 600,000 military personnel.
But what does 600,000 military personnel mean? For example, the Armed Forces of France are currently estimated at about 200,000 personnel, Germany's at 181,000, while the British army numbers about 73,000 staff. And all this with military budgets incomparably larger than that of Ukraine.
Therefore, the political question for Kyiv can be posed as follows: can you sustain even 600,000 military personnel in peacetime?
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