The 28-point plan that the Trump administration suddenly delivered to Ukraine as an ultimatum a few days ago appears to have been the product of weeks of secret consultations between businessman Steve Witkoff and his Russian interlocutor Kirill Dmitriev, according to Bloomberg. These negotiations took place behind the scenes, without the participation of Ukraine, its allies, or even key US officials.
With the Thanksgiving Day deadline approaching, European officials are moving feverishly to gain time for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, preparing their own counter-proposal for ending the war, which will be presented to American officials on Sunday in Switzerland.
The key figures
For the Europeans, the first alarm bell rang when a new person appeared. The US Secretary of the Army, Dan Driscoll, a close friend of JD Vance from their years at Yale Law School. He urgently informed European ambassadors and Ukrainian officials that American President Donald Trump had lost his patience, that Ukraine was in a difficult position, and that Kyiv had to agree to cede territory.
The fact that the mission of promoting such a crucial plan was assigned to someone so close to the vice president—and not to top diplomats like Marco Rubio—was considered particularly indicative. Vance has adopted a more isolationist line on the war, while Rubio appears more cautious towards Russian influence.
Before European leaders and Zelensky mobilized, they needed to understand exactly who had shaped the framework of the plan. They were completely excluded, and it was not clear who was influencing Trump the most. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk scathingly commented on X: "Before we start work, it would be good to know who the author of the plan is and where it was created."
The plan's drafting began in October
The picture that gradually emerged shows that the plan was drafted during a meeting in Miami in October, between Witkoff and Dmitriev, with the participation of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, who had collaborated with Witkoff on the Israel-Gaza peace plan.
Rubio was informed quite late. Even Trump was informed of the plan at the last moment—and approved it immediately after being briefed. Such a plan would offer Trump a political victory, at a time when he is facing internal political erosion after his party's heavy losses in the November elections and while Congress defies his pressure to unseal files related to Jeffrey Epstein. At the same time, Trump is adopting an increasingly aggressive stance in the Caribbean, even considering a potential strike on Venezuela.
Zelensky's corruption
At the same time, Zelensky is facing a serious corruption scandal involving his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. For Trump, the goal is the agreement, not the detail. For Ukraine, however, the detail makes the difference. And Kyiv's fears that Russia had essentially co-authored much of the text were confirmed: the document bears clear signs of a direct translation from Russian, with strange wording. The plan requires Ukraine to cede extensive territories, reduce the size of its army, and commit to never joining NATO. At the same time, it restores economic relations between the US and Russia.
The European reaction
To reverse the situation, Ukraine and its European allies insist that any discussion of territorial arrangements can only begin once hostilities cease along the current line of contact. Furthermore, they demand a security agreement equivalent to NATO's Article 5.
Efforts for a peace solution have repeatedly evolved into an intense diplomatic thriller since Trump returned to the White House in January, promising to stop the war "within days." The recent episode is no less dramatic. In the summer, after a hurried Alaska summit between Trump and Vladimir Putin, European leaders rushed to the White House fearing that the Russian president had particular influence over Trump—fears that were not allayed, especially after Putin's enigmatic smile inside the presidential vehicle.
In October, Trump's sudden statement that he was open to a second summit with Putin, this time in Budapest, made the Europeans see a repeat of the same play. The meeting was finally canceled when Rubio—in communication with his Russian counterpart—found that Moscow was not backing down on its demands.
Ignorance of the background
The Europeans, however, were unaware that behind the scenes, Witkoff had already drafted the 28-point plan. They believed that Rubio had essentially replaced the businessman as the key US interlocutor on the Ukrainian issue.
US Senator Mike Rounds revealed that Rubio, en route to Geneva, told them that the plan is a "Russian proposal" and "is not our recommendation, nor our peace plan."
Later, Rubio wrote on X that the plan was drafted by the US and constitutes a "strong framework" for negotiations—but carefully admitted that it "is based on inputs from the Russian side" and also on "previous and current inputs from Ukraine."
In Geneva, where he arrived on Sunday, Witkoff and Driscoll are also participating. Ukraine is represented by Yermak. It is not clear whether the Americans wish for the presence of the Europeans in the same meetings.
Driscoll is in constant contact with Witkoff and Vance, while Vance's deputy national security adviser, Andy Baker, has also been heavily involved—another sign of Vance's increasing influence.
Faced with the reactions, Trump did not explode. He told NBC that the proposal "is not my final offer," leaving room for maneuver—in contrast to Driscoll's more absolute position behind closed doors. However, on Sunday Trump's tone changed, writing on social media that the Ukrainian leadership "SHOWS ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS."
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών