The ultimate security guarantee—NATO's military involvement in case of a Russian attack on Ukraine—is reportedly being offered to Kyiv by US President Donald Trump.
Information from the Axios agency suggests that beyond the 28-point peace plan delivered by the US to Kyiv, President Trump also gave the Ukrainian leadership another document. This document includes the security guarantees from the US and European allies to Kyiv.
Specifically, the American administration speaks of "NATO Article 5-style security guarantees." Article 5 of the NATO Treaty provides for a collective response in the event of an armed attack on one or more NATO member countries.
Why it is important
The Trump plan requires painful concessions from Ukraine, but it also includes an unprecedented promise. The main goal of President Volodymyr Zelensky in the peace talks is to secure a strong security guarantee from the US and Europe, and this is the first time Trump has been willing to offer such a guarantee.
The 28-point plan presented by US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to Zelensky on Thursday, which Axios also obtained, merely states that "Ukraine will receive credible security guarantees." However, at the same time, the US presented the Ukrainians with another draft agreement.
What the document includes
The draft states that any future "significant, deliberate, and protracted armed attack" by Russia against Ukraine "will be considered an attack that threatens the peace and security of the transatlantic community," and the US and its allies will respond accordingly, including the use of military force.
"The document includes fields for signatures from Ukraine, the US, the EU, NATO, and Russia." A senior White House official stated that Russia has been informed of the draft, but it is unclear whether President Vladimir Putin's signature will ultimately be required. The security guarantee will be valid for 10 years and can be renewed by mutual agreement.
A senior White House official and another source with direct knowledge confirmed the document's authenticity. The senior official said that the Trump administration considers the proposed security guarantee to be "a great victory" for Zelensky and for Ukraine's long-term security. The proposal must be discussed with European partners and may undergo changes, the official said. Elements of the proposal had been published by the Wall Street Journal.
The official stated that the Trump administration considers the proposed security guarantee to be "a major victory" for Zelensky and for Ukraine's long-term security.
What Zelensky will do
Zelensky now has in his hands a proposal that will require him to cede even more Ukrainian territory than that currently controlled by Russia and to see Russia reintegrated into the community of nations—with the lifting of sanctions and amnesty for war crimes.
However, this agreement will also offer him a stronger guarantee against further Russian aggression than seemed likely while Trump was in the White House.
Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is leading the 28-point plan, discussed the proposed security guarantee with Zelensky's national security advisor, Rustem Umerov, over the weekend, and the document was delivered in writing to Zelensky on Thursday, according to an American official. The plan may put Trump at odds with reactions from his "America First" supporters, as it would essentially oblige the US to commit to defending Ukraine in the event of a new war.
The draft text
This Framework establishes the conditions for a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and provides a security guarantee based on the principles of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty adapted to the conditions of this conflict and the interests of the United States and their European partners.
"The United States confirms that a significant, deliberate, and protracted armed attack by the Russian Federation, beyond the agreed ceasefire line into Ukrainian territory, will be considered an attack that threatens the peace and security of the transatlantic community. In this case, the US President will, exercising his constitutional authority and after immediate consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and European partners, determine the necessary measures to restore security. These measures may include military force, intelligence and logistical support, economic and diplomatic actions, and other actions deemed appropriate. A joint evaluation mechanism involving NATO and Ukrainewill assess any alleged violation. NATO member states, such as France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, and Finland, confirm that Ukraine's security is an integral part of European stability and commit to acting jointly with the US in case of any violation, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent stance. This Framework shall enter into force upon its signature and shall remain in effect for 10 years, renewable by mutual agreement. A joint monitoring body led by European partners with US participation will oversee compliance."
As stated, this text must be signed by:
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Ukraine
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Russian Federation
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United States of America
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European Union
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NATO
Associated Press: The US and Europe are not obliged to intervene
However, the approach from the international news agency Associated Press is completely different, as it cites an American official who states that the proposed security guarantee agreement does not oblige the US and Europe to intervene. The agreement, proposed to Ukraine, does not oblige the US or its European allies to intervene on Ukraine's side, the Associated Press claims. The American official told the Associated Press that the agreement does not obligate the US or European countries to intervene directly in the war in Ukraine, but that they will determine the measures they deem necessary to restore security.
What the 28-point plan provides
In addition to the security guarantee, the 28-point plan provides for a demilitarized zone between the Ukrainian and Russian-occupied regions in the east. Russia will assume control of the entire Donbass region, while the control lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions will remain largely frozen. There will be no NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, and Ukraine's military will be limited to 600,000 personnel—smaller than the current one (~800,000-850,000 soldiers), but much larger than it was during peacetime (~250,000).
Here is the detailed presentation of all 28 points of the peace plan:
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Confirmation of Ukraine's sovereignty: Ukraine will maintain its sovereignty, with its full recognition by Russiaand international powers.
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Non-aggression pact: A comprehensive non-aggression pact will be signed between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, aiming to resolve the outstanding issues of the last 30 years.
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Suspension of Russian expansion and NATO enlargement: Russia agrees not to attack neighboring countries, and NATO will not proceed with further enlargement.
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US-mediated Russia-NATO dialogue: The US will mediate a dialogue between Russia and NATO to address security issues and develop conditions for de-escalation.
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Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Ukraine will receive credible security guarantees, strengthening stability in the region.
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Limitation of the size of the Ukrainian army: The size of the Ukrainian Army (AFU) will be limited to 600,000 soldiers down from 1,000,000 or more.
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Acceptance of the plan for Ukraine's non-entry into NATO: Ukraine agrees to incorporate into its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to add this decision to its provisions.
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No deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine: NATO agrees not to deploy troops in Ukraine.
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Military resources in Poland: The deployment of European fighter jets in Poland, as part of NATO's strategic forces, will be the main strategy for deterring Russian influence in the region.
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US guarantees and military responses: America will guarantee Ukraine's security under strict conditions. If Ukraine attacks Russia, it will lose the guarantee. In case of a Russian attack, all international sanctions will be reinstated, and the plan's privileges will be revoked.
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Ukraine's right to join the EU: Ukraine will have the right to seek membership in the European Union and will have preferential access to the EU market, at least for the period its membership is being considered.
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Rehabilitation package for Ukraine: The international community, led by the US, will create a development fund for the rehabilitation of Ukraine, with investments in technology industries, infrastructure, and natural resources.
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Russia's reintegration into the global economy: Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy with the gradual lifting of sanctions and the development of long-term cooperation agreements with the US and the EU in the fields of energy, technology, and natural resources.
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Use of frozen Russian assets: The 100 billion dollars in frozen Russian capital will be used for the rehabilitation of Ukraine, with half the proceeds going to the US and the EU.
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US-Russia Security Working Group: A joint US-Russia working group will be established to monitor the agreement and implement the agreed terms.
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Russia's legal commitment to non-aggression: Russia will legislate the policy of non-aggression against Europeand Ukraine.
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Treaties for the reduction of nuclear weapons: The US and Russia will extend nuclear non-proliferation treaties, including the START agreements.
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Ukraine and the non-nuclear weapons agreement: Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear weapons state, in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
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Operation of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant: The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant will be placed under the supervision of the IAEA, with energy production shared equally between Russia and Ukraine.
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Education and addressing racism: The two countries will integrate educational programs to cultivate understanding and tolerance between cultures, and will reject all forms of Nazi ideology and discrimination.
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Territorial issues: Crimea, Lugansk, and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian territories. Ukraineagrees to withdraw its forces from the Donetsk region, and this area will become a neutral, demilitarized zone.
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Guarantees for territorial integrity: Following the agreement on territorial issues, neither side will use force to alter these agreements.
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Ensuring the free use of the Dnieper: Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for the free transport of grain through the Black Sea.
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Humanitarian committee for resolving open issues: To resolve the humanitarian issues arising from the conflict, an international humanitarian committee will be created. This committee will deal with the exchange of prisonersand the transfer of the bodies of the victims, according to the "all for all" principle. Also, initiatives will be undertaken for the return of all civilians and hostages, including children, and for the reunification of families separated due to the war.
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Holding elections in Ukraine: Ukraine will hold elections within 100 days of the agreement's signing, aiming to restore political stability and ensure the government's democratic legitimacy.
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General amnesty for all involved in the conflict: All parties involved in the conflict will receive a full amnesty for their actions during the war. All involved agree not to submit claims or resort to justice for the events that took place during the hostilities. This measure aims to facilitate reconciliation and prevent future tensions.
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Legal commitment and monitoring of the Agreement: This agreement will be legally binding and continuously monitored for compliance. Its implementation will be overseen by an International Peace Commission, led by US President Donald Trump. In the event that any side violates the terms of the agreement, severe sanctions and other consequences will be imposed in accordance with international law.
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Immediate implementation of the ceasefire and withdrawal of forces: Immediately after the agreement is accepted by all involved parties, a ceasefire will be implemented, on the condition that both sides withdraw their troops from the agreed positions. The ceasefire will take effect immediately once the sides withdraw from the territories and the agreements for the implementation of the peace terms are submitted.
Russia is not satisfied with the 28-point proposal - It wants the causes of the conflict to be resolved
Russian officials continue to react to the 28-point peace plan, reiterating their commitment to Russia's original war aimsand accusing Ukraine of Russia's unwillingness to compromise. Senior Russian officials reiterated on November 19 and 20 the Kremlin's demand that the end of the war address the "root causes" of the war.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov claimed that Russia is committed to negotiations but placed the blame on Ukraine and the West for the halt in peace negotiations as a result of Russia's unwillingness to make concessions to end the war. Some Western media reported that the plan provides for Russia to make lend-lease payments to Ukraine for the occupation of Donbass, a provision that the Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Economic Policy of the Russian State Duma, Artem Kiryanov, explicitly rejected as "completely unacceptable" and "unworthy" of serious discussion.
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