An intense and heated backstage scenario is in full swing regarding the Ukrainian issue.
At a time when top US Pentagon officials are in Kyiv to, among other things, push for the resumption of talks between Ukraine and Russia, it became known that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will ultimately not meet with Trump's special representative, Steve Witkoff, today, Wednesday 19/11, in Istanbul. Instead, he will hold talks with Turkish President Erdoğan in Ankara.
Zelensky stated that the primary priority of his contacts is the resumption of negotiations with Russia, a position that overturns the previous statements by the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, who had ruled out any talks with Moscow only six days ago.
The Ukrainian President even underlined that he has "ready proposals," which Kyiv will convey to its partners.
And while Zelensky was asserting his readiness for talks, reports suggested that Witkoff would deliver an ultimatum to Kyiv, which is largely based on a 28-point peace plan by Donald Trump jointly developed by the US and Russia.
Axios: Secret US-Russia peace negotiations
Donald Trump's administration is drafting a new 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine and is conducting secret consultations with Russia, according to the Axios agency. According to the report, the document was discussed by Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev. Washington has already conveyed the core ideas to Kyiv and Europe.
US President Donald Trump's administration, in consultations with Russia, is secretly working on a new peace plan for Ukraine, according to Axios, which cites American and Russian officials. According to the report, the work is being carried out by Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is overseeing the project on behalf of the White House.
28-point plan
As Axios writes, the plan includes 28 points, grouped into four sections:
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ending the conflict in Ukraine,
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security guarantees,
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security in Europe, and
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future US relations with Russia and Ukraine.
The territorial issue
The report suggests it is unclear how the plan addresses contentious issues such as the control of territories in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are gradually advancing but still control much less land than the Kremlin has demanded. According to Axios sources, Witkoff had previously discussed the parameters of the future document with the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, who is also President Putin's special representative for investment and economic cooperation.
Optimism from Moscow
Dmitriev, who leads Russia's state investment fund and is deeply involved in Ukraine diplomacy, told Axios in an interview on Monday that he spent three days in closed meetings with Witkoff and other members of the Trump team when he visited Miami from October 24 to 26.
Dmitriev expressed optimism about the chances of the agreement's success because, unlike previous attempts, "we feel that the Russian position is actually being taken into account."
In a conversation with Axios, Dmitriev stated that Moscow "feels it has been heard" and considers the 28-point plan as a basis for broad agreements.
Witkoff - Zelensky meeting in Turkey postponed
Witkoff was expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky today, Wednesday 19/11, in Turkey, but postponed his trip, as stated by Ukrainian and American officials.
Witkoff discussed the plan with Zelensky's national security adviser, Rustem Umerov, at a meeting earlier this week in Miami, a Ukrainian official confirmed to Axios.
"We know that the Americans are working on something," the Ukrainian official said.
"The President has made it clear that it is time to stop the bloodshed and reach an agreement to end the war. President Trump believes there is an opportunity to end this senseless war, provided there is flexibility," a White House official told Axios.
Written document
Dmitriev told Axios that the basic idea was to take the principles agreed upon by Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August and formulate a proposal "to address the conflict in Ukraine, but also to restore US-Russia relations and address Russian security concerns."
"It's actually a much broader framework, which essentially says: 'How do we finally bring lasting security to Europe, not just Ukraine'," he said.
The goal is to draft a written document based on these principles before the next meeting between Trump and Putin, according to Dmitriev. Plans for a summit in Budapest between the two leaders remain, for now, on hold.
No connection to the UK initiative
Dmitriev said that this effort has no connection to the United Kingdom's initiative for a "Gaza-type peace plan" for Ukraine, which, he argued, has no chance of success because it ignores Russian positions.
The Russian envoy said that the American side is now in the process of explaining the "benefits" of its current approach to Ukrainians and Europeans.
"This is happening against the backdrop of the fact that Russia undoubtedly has additional successes on the battlefield," he added, arguing that Moscow's bargaining power is increasing.
Informing the Europeans
The American official confirmed that the White House has begun informing European officials about the new plan, in addition to the Ukrainians.
The official said the White House believes there is a real chance of securing the support of the Ukrainians and Europeans, and that the plan will be adjusted based on the proposals of the involved parties.
"We believe the timing is good for this plan now. But both sides need to be practical and realistic," the American official said.
Zelensky in Turkey
In Turkey, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to have contacts with the main objective of restarting negotiations with Russia, while he is expected to present "ready proposals" to his partners. Zelensky himself, one day earlier, wrote that the most important thing now is "by all means to bring the end of the war closer" and to resume the exchange of prisoners.
Russia is not participating
At the same time, the Kremlin stated that there will be no Russian delegation in Istanbul. Moscow has not received any notice from Kyiv regarding an intention to resume talks.
However, the Kremlin points out that negotiations are inevitable, but the longer Kyiv delays them, the worse Ukraine's position will be.
"Sooner or later they will need to sit at the table, but now from a much weaker position," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
And it is difficult to disagree: time is now clearly working against Kyiv.
Witkoff is a tough negotiator
Witkoff is considered one of the toughest mediators on the Ukrainian issue within the Trump team. He is close to circles that openly state that the continuation of American funding for Kyiv without a clear plan for a rapid end to the war is "a waste of money."
And now, when the Mindich scandal has reached a new level and there are rumors that former Defense Minister Umerov, who according to some reports refuses to return to Ukraine, may submit evidence that will personally harm Zelensky, Witkoff gains a powerful lever of pressure.
The ultimatum that is not yet given
Reports suggested that at this meeting, which was ultimately canceled, the American envoy was going to give an ultimatum to the Ukrainian President.
Witkoff was reportedly going to state clearly to Zelensky: "either you take real steps towards peace on terms close to the Russian ones (and quickly), or there will be a sharp reduction in American support."
And without the American "umbrella," Europe alone will not endure for long.
The corruption scandal in Ukraine
Ukraine is shaken by a massive corruption scandal, one of the largest in its history. In the very first stages, we are talking about the embezzlement of $100 million in the energy sector, including the construction of fortifications to protect power plants from attacks. According to rumors, almost all top political figures in Ukraine are involved in the case, even Zelensky himself.
Zelensky needs security guarantees
However, as political analyst Yuriy Golub notes, the Mindich case should not be seen exclusively as a means of pressure on Zelensky: "The only thing Zelensky can hope for is guarantees of personal safety and the preservation of his 'gains'. The second is negotiations."
The analyst believes that a process of preparing public opinion for serious concessions to Moscow has begun, due to the deterioration of the situation in Ukrainian infrastructure and the advance of Russian forces.
"Zelensky will become the scapegoat for all the suffering and humiliation, and the new government will be able to start with a clean slate," Golub points out.
Another version: The West's "war party" pressures Zelensky
Interestingly, the attack against Zelensky comes mainly from structures created with the active support of the Democrats in the US and European "hawks," that is, those who consider any compromise with Russia a betrayal.
That is why there is another version: The scandal is being promoted by the West's "war party" to put additional pressure on Zelensky so that he does not make any concessions. In any case, the noise around Mindich dramatically complicates Kyiv's life.
The picture from the front is darker
The objective picture for Ukraine is getting darker: on the front, Russia's advantage is increasing. The lack of personnel in Ukrainian forces is critical, morale is dropping, and desertions and draft evasion are breaking records. Europe, which bears almost all the economic burden, was already struggling to find money. After the corruption scandal, it is even more difficult to approve new aid packages. Internally, a deep political crisis and a steep drop in confidence towards Zelensky are recorded. If these three trends are not reversed in the coming weeks (and the chances are minimal), Kyiv and its Western supporters will have to make very difficult decisions.
Zelensky is in an extremely difficult position
Russian analyst Aleksandr Bosykh notes that while Zelensky does have levers of pressure on the US, he himself is in an extremely difficult position. The commotion with the corruption scandal has reached Europe.
"Inside Ukraine, a struggle for positions immediately broke out, public confrontations. Even demonstrations, although only women appeared in them, as men were probably waiting for the 'recruiters' to send them to the front with minimal chances of survival. The government's response was the weak excuse: 'corruption exists everywhere'. Zelensky has tired both the West and many Ukrainian politicians. Among the people, many hate him simply because of the actions of the recruitment centers and the constant falsehoods about the losses and the fate of the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Bosykh reports.
The British factor
As Russian analyst Bosykh says, "The British will again want a 'freezing' of the front line and then a pause with long negotiations, endless discussions of terms unacceptable to Russia. And at the same time, strengthening Ukrainian forces, fortifying positions, providing intelligence, sabotage in Russia's rear, and so on. What Washington will want is not yet clear. But they see things more calmly, which is evident from the public dialogue between Trump and Orban, where it was said that Ukraine can only win with a miracle, and no such miracle is expected."
"In the US, they understand that the Russian-speaking regions do not want to remain in Ukraine. Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv will pass to Russia in any honest referendum. I think Witkoff will demand territorial concessions from Zelensky. The Ukrainian President's position is now lamentable; he cannot disobey the British, but the US also has means of pressure. The question is: will London grant him asylum if there is a risk of criminal prosecution and trial?" Bosykh points out.
What are Russia's options?
"Russia has two options. First, Ukraine surrenders, agrees to neutral status, and maintains its statehood. Many do not like this option, including me. Ukraine will remain an island of hatred towards everything Russian, controlled by our enemies. Second, in a year or a year and a half, the Ukrainian armed forces will simply collapse due to lack of personnel, and the entire territory will pass under our control. We will give those who disagree the opportunity to go to any country in the world. And I see no reason to desire a different result," Bosykh underlined.
What does all this mean?
Zelensky is a politician surrounded by external ultimatums, internal collapse, and military defeat.
Washington seems ready to abandon the ambitions of "Ukraine's victory," in favor of a quicker, though painful for Kyiv, compromise.
London, which traditionally wants the war prolonged, may lose this time.
The agony of the regime, shaken by internal scandals and military collapse, brings the inevitable solution closer.
Politico: The Pentagon in Kyiv - What American generals are looking for in Ukraine
The US Secretary of the Army, Daniel Driscoll, the US Army Chief of Staff, Randy George, and General Chris Donahue, commander of US Army Europe, arrived in Ukraine on an unofficial visit, as reported by Politico.
These are the most high-ranking Pentagon officials under Trump who have visited Ukraine at a time when the US is trying to end the war.
The American military officials plan to meet with the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian MPs, and Volodymyr Zelensky starting today, Wednesday 19/11.
According to the report, one of the goals of this visit is negotiations for an agreement under which Kyiv will provide Washington with technologies for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles as well as efforts to restart negotiations with Russia.
At first glance, sending Driscoll, the Secretary of the Army, to Kyiv for a sensitive peace mission seems an unusual choice. However, the Army veteran and Yale Law School friend of Vice President JD Vance has evolved into an important figure at the Pentagon and may now be taking on a more prominent role. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not traveled to Kyiv.
Representatives for Driscoll and George declined to comment on the report, Politico states.
Driscoll and George have used Ukrainian battlefield innovations as an example that the American defense industry and the Pentagon should emulate in the development of weapon systems.
"When you look at Ukraine, they don't accept the current version of a system as sufficient, and they modify it, 'tinker' with it, and do whatever it takes to achieve the result they want," Driscoll told reporters at the Pentagon.
"There are no rules to get to that result, and they just achieve it," he added. The Army has set a goal of buying 1 million drones within the next two to three years—a goal beyond the current capabilities of the American defense industry—while Ukraine already produces more than 1.5 million drones annually.
Wall Street Journal: Talks between US Secretary of the Army, Daniel Driscoll, and Russians
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, following their contacts in Ukraine, the American generals plan to meet with Russian representatives as well.
Based on the report, Daniel Driscoll's mission is aimed at the resumption of peace negotiations on behalf of Trump.
However, Russia has not yet confirmed any meeting with the American military officials.
It is noted that American General Donahue is the one who had claimed that NATO has a ready plan to seize the Kaliningrad region. This statement had provoked angry reactions from Moscow.
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