The landscape concerning the conflict in Ukraine is beginning to clear up. The latest actions by the Europeans—and the Americans—indicate that their main goal is for the war to continue until at least 2027, in order to gain as much time as possible so that they have appropriately prepared their armies for any possible scenario of involvement with Russia.
The plan is obviously not that simple, and the question was posed by the European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, himself, who wondered if Europe will truly be ready even then to stand against the battle-tested Russians.
Beyond this question mark, however, the West's plan faces another huge obstacle. Because there are many who doubt whether the Ukrainians will endure fighting until 2027. If one combines the enormous losses they have every month at the front, the increasing number of desertions, and the decreasing number of conscripts being sent to the battlefield, it is obvious that the Ukrainian defense is full of gaps and cracks against a Russian army that is becoming stronger and more aggressive every day.
Macron: War until 2027
French President Emmanuel Macron, during his meeting yesterday in Paris with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, hinted that the war in Ukraine will continue until at least 2027. Specifically, Macron argued that the desired time limit for ending the conflict in Ukraine is 2027.
He expressed hope that the two sides would make peace in 2027, stating that he would like to manage to see the end of the conflict while he still holds the position of President of France. Consequently, he implied that the conflict will continue normally for the next two years.
It is noted that Russia has made it clear that for a long-term peace in Ukraine, the deeper causes of the conflict must be eliminated. Moscow believes that the supply of equipment to Kyiv complicates the solution, involves NATO countries, and constitutes a real "game with fire."
Crucial decisions
Despite Russia's warnings, the West continues to provide equipment and means for the Ukrainians to continue fighting Russia until the end. Macron argued that allies have made significant decisions with a decisive role in the current crisis in Ukraine.
In my opinion, a series of decisions of crucial importance have been taken in recent months that have changed a lot in terms of pressure on Russia," Macron said, citing as an example the new US sanctions against Russian oil companies. As he stated, every such measure, along with increased support for Kyiv, brings a stable peace closer to the allied country.
However, Macron did not answer the question of what support for Ukraine should look like after his presidential term ends.
Ukraine is heading for disaster
Beyond the allies' aspirations, the big question is whether Ukraine will truly be able to resist the Russians for two more years. Military analysts already argue that the Ukrainians are collapsing.
In eastern Zaporizhia, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) now have a critical hole in their defense. According to Ukrainian journalists and analysts, Russian forces have breached fortified lines and reached a point where the Ukrainians have no reserves. If the advance continues, key supply lines and subsequently large cities—Zaporizhia and Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk)—will be threatened. However, experts point out that it is only a matter of time before these two cities fall into Russian hands.
What is happening in eastern Zaporizhia
The activation of the Russian offensive from the western borders of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) began in late October, when the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, transferred reserves from this section for the defense of Pokrovsk.
Now the offensive is developing in two directions: west—north of Gulyaipole, and northwest—towards the settlement of Pokrovsk in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
These settlements are of critical importance for the Ukrainian defense. The first is a key strongpoint that covers the deeply echeloned defensive lines near Orekhov from the west, where the front had remained stable since 2023. Its fall would allow Russian forces to advance towards Zaporizhia, bypassing rows of trenches, underground shelters, and minefields.
Pokrovsk, on the other hand, covers the road not only to Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk but also serves as an important supply hub for the entire Ukrainian grouping in the region.
Ukrainian military analyst Bogdan Miroshnykov writes: "Gulyaipole will be followed by Orekhov. And then, apart from Kamyshevaha and Stepnogorsk, essentially nothing will prevent the enemy from reaching the southern suburbs of Zaporizhia. This will also affect Pokrovsk. If the enemy captures it, they will be able to advance all the way to Volnyansk."
"Then there will be operational-tactical successes for the enemy and real disaster," he concludes.
How did the Russian forces manage to break through the defense?
The advance of Russian units since the beginning of the month reaches 2-10 kilometers. According to Ukrainian sources, the highest speed was recorded in the last 24 hours—up to 6–7 km per day. Dense fogs help significantly, as they reduce the risk of attacks from FPV drones.
Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Mashovets notes: "The enemy has significantly increased the pace of advance and does not intend to reduce it. It does not seem possible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to intercept them, even partially."
The Deep State resource gives an even more pessimistic assessment: according to it, Russian forces have not only broken the line of defense but have also moved into an operational field with no Ukrainian units in front of them. As of November 1, nine settlements have come under Russian control.
What does the loss of Pokrovsk and Gulyaipole mean for the Ukrainians?
According to German analyst Julian Röpcke of Bild, if these settlements are lost, the tactical failure will evolve into a strategic disaster.
He writes: "This makes monthly losses on the scale of the German state of Berlin possible. Thus, the Russian advance towards the cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhia is a matter of months—a year or two at most."
Röpcke blames the Ukrainian General Staff for "communication stunts," concealment of the situation, mass desertions, and miscalculation of supplies from the allies.
How will the Ukrainian command try to save the situation?
Theoretically, the Ukrainians can transfer reserves to Gulyaipole and Pokrovsk. However, most "firefighting brigades" are pinned down in:
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Pokrovsk
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Kupyansk
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Dobropolsky salient
The situation is further complicated by Russian activity on other critical fronts—near Konstantinovka and Seversk (DPR). Every movement of forces will weaken another front. The crisis in Zaporizhia intensified precisely after the previous transfer of brigades towards Pokrovsk.
What difficulties might the Russian offensive face?
Military expert Sergey Poletaev, co-founder of the "Vatfor" project, considers it too early to talk about a complete operational breakthrough north of Gulyaipole. He considers the Ukrainian estimates "military hysteria."
He explains that the main problem of the Ukrainian armed forces is the absence of fortifications between the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers. In his view: "Apparently, due to a lack of personnel, Ukrainian units abandoned settlements on the east bank and are trying to stabilize further west. It is a rare case, but a conscious tactical retreat."
He acknowledges that if Russian forces quickly cross the rivers, the crisis could evolve into an operational one, meaning a front collapse.
Poletaev concludes: "Strategically, the specific point of the offensive does not matter, but the complete exhaustion of the Ukrainians. That is why we are attacking simultaneously in 7–8 sectors, to ultimately cause a collapse across the entire front."
No one can say for sure how close Ukraine is to this moment. For Russia, the Zaporizhia front is neither better nor worse than that of Sumy or Volchansk.
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