"Perhaps even tomorrow" - Europe ignites the most horrific war scenario with Russia - Why are billions of euros being spent on ghosts?

Europe now appears to be living with its finger on the trigger. The military alarm in NATO has already sounded, judging by the budgets of most European countries, with Germany being the most characteristic case.
Ministers and generals warn: War with Russia could break out at any moment, perhaps even "tomorrow," although Moscow constantly reiterates that it has no intention of attacking any NATO member state. Despite this, a new arms race is flaring up on the continent, awakening ghosts that History had promised would never return.

Even tomorrow

European officials and military personnel are united: the probability of a war with Russia is increasing day by day. The only point on which they disagree is when it will happen.
In February 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that war with Russia could occur in three years. Now, the Bundeswehr generals are giving even more pessimistic forecasts.
"If we look at the current situation, Russia is capable of launching a limited strike against NATO territory even tomorrow," said Alexander Sollfrank, Head of the Operational Command of the German Armed Forces, in an interview with Reuters.
According to him, these actions may be local and quick, as Moscow is still very busy with the "special military operation," although he estimates that Russia has enough combat forces, such as tanks, for a limited operational purpose.

In 3 to 4 years

The head of the French Defence Staff, Fabien Mandon, recently reiterated: the army of the Fifth Republic must be ready for a conflict that will likely begin in three to four years. According to him, this is confirmed by intelligence data.
"This assessment is shared by our close allies," Mandon added.
How this aligns with the assurances of Western politicians that Russia will not be able to sustain fighting Ukraine for much longer is something the military officials do not explain.
Although Moscow categorically denies any scenario of invading Europe or attacking a NATO state, Europe is proceeding with a mammoth militarization.
Europe now appears to be living with its finger on the trigger. The military alarm in NATO has already sounded, judging by the budgets of most European countries, with Germany being the most characteristic case.
Ministers and generals warn: War with Russia could break out at any moment, perhaps even "tomorrow," although Moscow constantly reiterates that it has no intention of attacking any NATO member state. Despite this, a new arms race is flaring up on the continent, awakening ghosts that History had promised would never return.

Even tomorrow

European officials and military personnel are united: the probability of a war with Russia is increasing day by day. The only point on which they disagree is when it will happen.
In February 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that war with Russia could occur in three years. Now, the Bundeswehr generals are giving even more pessimistic forecasts.
"If we look at the current situation, Russia is capable of launching a limited strike against NATO territory even tomorrow," said Alexander Sollfrank, Head of the Operational Command of the German Armed Forces, in an interview with Reuters.
According to him, these actions may be local and quick, as Moscow is still very busy with the "special military operation," although he estimates that Russia has enough combat forces, such as tanks, for a limited operational purpose.

In 3 to 4 years

The head of the French Defence Staff, Fabien Mandon, recently reiterated: the army of the Fifth Republic must be ready for a conflict that will likely begin in three to four years. According to him, this is confirmed by intelligence data.
"This assessment is shared by our close allies," Mandon added.
How this aligns with the assurances of Western politicians that Russia will not be able to sustain fighting Ukraine for much longer is something the military officials do not explain.

Increasing budgets and ambitious plans

At the NATO Summit in The Hague last June, it was agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of the GDP of each country by 2035. Of this, 3.5% will be spent directly on defense purposes, while 1.5% will be directed to defense and security-related sectors, such as infrastructure and industry.
However, the most powerful and active allies are accelerating the program. Specifically, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had stated in May that the Bundeswehr must become the strongest army in Europe.

Germany spends 377 billion

For this purpose, Berlin is not sparing money, as according to Politico, the German authorities intend to pass defense contracts worth €83 billion through the federal parliament, the Bundestag, by the end of 2026. They plan to reach the target of 3.5% of GDP in 2029. Military spending by then is expected to reach €153 billion. The overall strategic budget of the Bundeswehr for the procurement of various types of weapons — from tanks and warships to drones and radars — includes 320 programs and will cost the German budget €377 billion.

One-tenth to the Americans

It is impressive that only one-tenth of this amount will be allocated for payments to American arms manufacturers. Until recently, Berlin was the US's main customer in this sector. Now, the German authorities intend to focus on the domestic and European market.
"German politicians, instead of throwing all resources into improving the socio-economic situation of their country, are inflating military budgets, increasing arms supplies to Ukraine, and developing crazy operational plans in case of a Russian attack," said Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Sergey Shoigu.

France is also arming itself

Similar measures are being taken by France. By 2027, the country's military budget is expected to reach €64 billion. "This is twice the budget of the Armed Forces in 2017," said Emmanuel Macron. Also, in 2023, the country's parliament approved a military programming law until 2030, according to which Paris will spend €413 billion on the defense industry and the army. They are not ignoring nuclear forces either — France continues the development of new ballistic missile submarines. In late October, Paris unveiled the M51.3 nuclear missile, which will be fitted to four Le Triomphant-class submarines.

Major changes for the United Kingdom as well

In the summer, the government of Keir Starmer published the Strategic Defence Review. The document outlines positions that will determine the future of the UK's foreign policy and military for the next 15 years. The authors point out that the country is expected to undergo the largest military reform in the last 50 years. This is based on five principles:

• NATO First: London must take a leading role in the alliance, which will be the main guarantor of European security.

• Readiness for battle: A stronger army is required, appropriately equipped for the war of the future.

• Growth compensator: The development of the Armed Forces should act as a driving force for the economy.

• Innovations from the lessons of Ukraine: The British must learn the experience of using drones and "digital" warfare.

• National orientation: Society must actively participate in ensuring its own security.

All this will be accompanied by an increase in spending, as by 2027, it will reach 2.5% of GDP, while in the next parliamentary elections, which must be held no later than August 2029, this percentage will rise to 3% of GDP. Regarding the manning and equipping of the land forces, London intends to follow the 20-40-40 principle: 20% of operational capability will be ensured by traditional military technology, 40% by uncrewed technology, and the remaining 40% will come from "single-use" ammunition, high-precision weapons, and kamikaze drones.

Nuclear arsenals

Like the French, the British are also concerned about strengthening their nuclear arsenals. They will spend £15 billion (over $20 billion) on modernizing missiles and nuclear warheads. But this is not the only measure. Since 2016, London has been renewing its fleet of weapons of mass destruction carriers: the Vanguard-class submarines will be replaced by the Dreadnought-class submarines. The cost of the four submarines amounts to £30 billion.

Preparations for military restructuring

Investments in the military-industrial complex and the armed forces are not limited to these measures. The Europeans are also considering preparations for a potential general mobilization. Germany plans to increase the number of conscripts from 180,000 to 260,000. Also, the number of reservists is expected to nearly triple, from 60,000 to 200,000.
Berlin is also considering the reinstatement of mandatory military service. This discussion began in the summer, and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier participated. "The fairest solution would be to introduce compulsory service for everyone, with some serving in the Bundeswehr, while others serve in the social sector," the German president stated, with the governing coalition parties reaching an agreement on the matter.

Compulsory service returns

From now on, all Germans reaching conscription age will undergo a medical examination to determine their fitness for service. The Bundeswehr, in turn, will publish targets for personnel enlistment. If volunteers are insufficient, the shortfall will be covered by a lottery.
At the same time, Berlin stands out even at the European level for its shift towards militarization. This trend is so intense that it is causing concern among allies. "This is somewhere between vigilance and threat," Politico reports, citing one of the French officials. "It will be difficult to work with them because they will be in control."
However, Germany is not the only country in Europe considering the return of mandatory military service. Belgium is moving in the same direction, albeit more cautiously. Last week, the Belgian Ministry of Defence sent 149,000 letters inviting all 17-year-old citizens to military service. However, the compulsory army is not returning yet.

United Front

In addition to the efforts of individual countries, preparation is also being made at the NATO level. At the Alliance's summit in Madrid in 2022, the decision was made to reform the quick reaction forces, increasing their number from 40,000 to 300,000 soldiers. And now German generals are threatening to transfer 800,000 soldiers to the eastern flank.

At the same time, the Alliance is cooperating with the EU to create a "military Schengen" — simplifying the transport of weapons and equipment across borders. Furthermore, NATO increased its presence by creating more units in Eastern Europe, increasing the number of "enhanced Forward Presence" forces from four to eight brigades, with another one to be added in Finland next year.
The leading countries of Europe are still at the beginning of the road to military reforms. However, if they manage to implement them, the threshold for a potential conflict could be crossed with dangerous ease.

Global Firepower 2025: The Russian army is the 2nd strongest - The US is first

The Russian army is the second strongest in the world, lagging only behind that of the US in terms of power, according to the updated Global Firepower 2025 ranking. The compilers of the ranking recognized the leading position of the Russian Armed Forces in the field of self-propelled artillery, multiple rocket launch systems, and minefields. However, Russia did not take the top spot in areas such as aircraft, helicopters, and tanks. It is noted that Russia possesses a significant nuclear arsenal, which is not taken into account in the ranking's calculation. In addition to the US and Russia, the top ten strongest armies in the world include the Armed Forces of China, India, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, Turkey, and Italy.

The Global Firepower ranking considers more than 60 factors to determine the PowerIndex of countries, including the number of soldiers, the financial base of the Armed Forces, logistical capabilities, and geography. In 2025, the armies of 145 states were evaluated.

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