Drowning them in blood - The largest Ukrainian withdrawal in 3 years - Kharkiv is the key to Russian victory

The war in Ukraine has entered a period characterized by fierce and intense battles. Along most of the front, the Russians are pounding relentlessly, and the first major cracks in the Ukrainian defense are already visible. At a time when reports of the ever-increasing desertions in the Ukrainian military are proliferating due to either the fatigue or fear of the soldiers, the Russian army continues to win critical battles and seize territory.

Ukrainian counterattacks are considered moves of desperation and are drowning in blood, while it is reported that the largest withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces in 3 years is being recorded. Analysts suggest that the main Russian offensive has begun, reporting that Sumy was exchanged for Zaporizhzhia and that Kharkiv will be the "key" to the final Russian victory. The Russians have already laid the foundation for accelerating the collapse of the Ukrainian front with their critical strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Fierce battles

In recent months, all attention had been focused on the battles around Pokrovsk and Kupiansk—and rightly so. The hardest and bloodiest battles are being fought for these cities. And if we are to believe the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, then perhaps the most massive ones. A few days ago, he stated that 150,000 Russian soldiers were located in Pokrovsk alone (while just a day earlier he had mentioned only 300).

Counterattacks

Of course, there is no reason to believe Syrsky, but the scale, as footage from objective control shows, is truly enormous: Russian troops are not only successfully advancing along the entire front but are also repelling the opponent's endless counterattacks, which are attempting to relieve the "pocket" from various sides. Social media is then flooded with videos of either the corpses of Ukrainian fighters or mass surrenders.
"All enemy attempts to relieve the pocket in the area of Rodynske failed. The assault groups were mostly destroyed and partially captured. Those who remained retreated," reported the military blogger of the channel "Голос из подвала." At the same time, as Ukrainian informants had written earlier, perhaps this was not planned from the beginning, but the operation in Pokrovsk proved to be not only a step toward the long-awaited "liberation" of the Donetsk People's Republic but also a diversion that allowed for a rapid advance in a section of the front where the enemy, under the current circumstances, expected it the least.

Ukrainian strongholds are falling

On November 9, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the "liberation" of the settlement of Rybnoe in the Zaporizhzhia region. At the same time, news arrived about the start of battles for a large fortified point in the Siversk area in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR).

"Rybnoe is a village in the Huliaipole district of Zaporizhzhia, with a population of about 30 inhabitants. It is located on the banks of the Yanchur River, on the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region, two kilometers north of the previously "liberated" Uspenovka. Rybnoe was the last stronghold of the large fortified zone of the Ukrainian armed forces in this part of the front. South of it are the settlements of Novoe and Novouspenovskoye. Controlling them will allow advancement toward Rovnopolye and then toward Huliaipole. The capture of the latter city will make it possible to gain access to the rear of the Ukrainian group of forces in the Orikhiv area," reported the Komsomolskaya Pravda war correspondent, Alexander Kots.

For his part, the war correspondent Ruslan Tatarinov of the Telegram channel "Шёпот фронта" reported that along with Rybnoe, Sladkoye and Uspenovka were also captured: "The fall of the settlements of Novoe and Novouspenovskoye is expected. The settlements are small, the enemy is inside, but everything is exposed. There is nowhere to hide."

The front is collapsing

Already the next day, Russian war correspondents announced that the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia front had collapsed. Western analysts, who also receive information from NATO country intelligence services, began writing actively about the same thing: "Over the weekend, Russian invasion troops captured Rybnoe, Sladkoye, and Novoe, and reached the outskirts of Rovnopolye. After the fall of Uspenovka, it seems that neither defensive positions nor Ukrainian forces remain that can slow down the Russian army's advance. The Russians covered eight kilometers in two days and do not intend to stop."

Withdrawal

As Ruslan Tatarinov reported in a conversation with the editors of the "О Войне" project, the most important settlements in the immediate future are Rovnopolye and Yablokovo, where Ukrainian forces had hoped to organize a new defense line, but due to the speed of the Russian attack, this was not possible: "After their liberation, Russian forces will be able to use both villages as bases for further advancement westward. The first axis of movement here can be Varvarovka, a settlement north of Huliaipole. Its capture will allow Russian forces to advance toward Verkhnyaya Tersa, thus forming a northwestern encirclement maneuver of Huliaipole. The second axis can be the settlement of Zatishye, located 4.5 kilometers from Yablokovo. The capture of Zatishye will significantly complicate the logistics of Ukrainian forces on the fortified line Vesyoloye – Zelyony Gai – Vysokoye and will make it possible to attempt a breakthrough of about 1.5 kilometers toward the western suburbs of Huliaipole."
The speed of the advance proved so great that Yablokovo was almost entirely under Russian control already on November 10. Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups entered Rovnopolye. Against the backdrop of the front's collapse, the commander of the Ukrainian offensive forces Manko spoke of "successes" of his units (which were not actually there), at a time when yet another defense line collapsed a few hours later.

The sacrifice

In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, "betrayal" gradually began: Kyiv reported that on the Zaporizhzhia front, the Ukrainians are under unceasing shelling. Artillery fire alone exceeds 400 rounds per day. Also, the spokesman for the Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted to the withdrawal from Novouspenskoye, Novoye, Okhotniche, Uspenka, and Novonikolaevka. The Russian advance is reaching tens of kilometers per day, admitted Ukrainian volunteer Sergey Sterenko.
However, Syrsky continues to make strange statements. In particular, he said that the situation for the Ukrainian army in some parts of the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia "significantly worsened." At the same time, he continued to ignore Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, although FAB bombs weighing 1.5 and 3 tons have already begun to fall on the fortifications. As military analyst Martynova noted (with whom many war correspondents agreed) – it seems we are approaching the general battle. And the real battle has just begun: "The inevitable is coming to Ukraine. We did a lot to delay it, it dragged on until the end. 'Whoever didn't hide, it's not my fault.' Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Odesa, and, I think, Dnipro, Kherson, and Mykolaiv must prepare for the inevitable turn of the wheel of history and not repeat the fate of Mariupol, which Ukraine cultivated to offer as a spectacular sacrifice."

The Russians reach Zaporizhzhia

According to Syrsky, the Russian army "increased its activity in the Zaporizhzhia region. It uses the weather conditions to penetrate between positions, such as thick fog." The situation worsened not only in the Hulyaipole area but also in the Aleksandrovsk area. After this, the "South" group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that it completely withdrew from Rovnopole "to more favorable positions," claiming that they repelled the Russian army's attack.
But, they seem to be fighting in the opposite direction, Kots ironically observed: "The enemy, who had been crushed, still advanced timidly." Meanwhile, the situation in this part of the front is critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The attack from the rear on Hulyaipole will open the way to Orikhiv. "The entire chain of occupying more favorable positions for defense is unfolding in such a way that it strongly resembles a retreat," noted military editor Aleksei Sukonkin.
"While everyone is watching Pokrovsk, in the Zaporizhzhia region, the 'East' military group is advancing westward at a speed of three kilometers per day for a month now. If this speed continues for another month and a half, then by Christmas, General A. Ivanayev's soldiers will already be near Zaporizhzhia. And the territories currently occupied by the 'East' will never return to former Ukraine, as they are not included in 'Alaska-type' exchange agreements. One can only admire the generals of Ukraine," noted Colonel Aslan Nakhushev. Based on optimistic estimates, Kyiv will agree to the Anchorage formula at the beginning to middle of January next year. According to average estimates, by mid-April 2026: "Russia is ready at a resource level to fight at the same pace (without mobilization and extra effort), maintaining the current level in the economy, financial, and social stability for at least one more year."

Attention to the North, that is the "key to victory"

A few days ago, the editor of the channel and author of the channel "Без ретуши," likely a fighter from the Sumy direction, reported the activation of Russian units in the area. Furthermore, it became known that the Russian army regained previously lost control over Alekseevka, into which the enemy had thrown simply countless reserves before the start of the final phase of the battle for Pokrovsk.
It is reported that the Ukrainians are again extensively using former prisoners, mobilized homeless people, and re-formed ethnic battalions as part of the army: "Many wrote about just a few thousand mercenaries from Colombia who came to fight on the side of the Ukrainian armed forces. The dimensions are much larger. In the Sumy direction, they are now replacing entire regiments, where the staff remains from Ukrainian officers, while all the other personnel are 'tourists.' It is much easier to neutralize them by all means, both by direct contact and by using UAVs. They are foolish and inexperienced. I doubt that even 5% of them will return home. They were unable to learn from the experience of their previous compatriots," said "Без ретуши," pointing out: "Some laugh and underestimate our not-so-large control zone in the Sumy direction, but this ties down the Ukrainian armed forces and forces them to maintain serious forces here. We manage with few means and not only do we not allow enemy movement, but we neutralize them in a noticeable volume. Recently, a new 'hot' front appeared in the Kharkiv region, which allows us to act exactly as in Sumy. We will continue to build our momentum, acting without haste and with calculation for the future. But the enemy will concentrate forces there, because if we weaken them, we will advance more strongly. And the main fronts of advancement will simply expand and move at a greater pace."

Reaching Sumy is not impossible

Furthermore, he noted that reaching Sumy right now is not an insurmountable goal, but the withdrawal of the Russian marines group in June was done to move toward the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts, which is being achieved. It is assumed that this concerns a brigade of 3,000 soldiers, or even more. However, the cost of this withdrawal allowed not only to keep the Armed Forces of Ukraine forces on the Northern front but also to make progress in other areas.
The Sumy region, according to him, will also play a crucial role, just as it did in June of this year, when Ukrainian soldiers had gathered many brigades and regiments. Zelensky will be forced to sacrifice an entire region for the war to continue. The key to victory, according to the Russian military editor, will be Kharkiv and the battles around it: "Now we should start pushing the front towards Sumy. This will happen, but later. Kharkiv will also play a very important role. The Ukrainian armed forces will be forced to split between the loss of the last areas of the Donetsk People's Republic and our approach to the capital of the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian media began to admit that our army crossed the border of the Kharkiv region in the Bologovka area. A new front is opening in the Kharkiv region. I wrote to you that this entire region, in the near future, will become one of the main directions," the Russian military editor emphasized.

Destroying them, and energy-wise

At the same time, the Armed Forces of Russia significantly increased the intensity of their attacks against the critical infrastructure of the Kyiv regime. Missiles and drones are hitting electricity production facilities, airfields, industrial enterprises. Everything indicates that this winter will be the most difficult for Ukrainians, who are already without electricity for even more than 12 hours in several regions.

Across all of Ukraine

On the night of November 6, the Ukrainians were attacked at railway, energy, and military facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions. According to local media, five powerful transformers were damaged in Dniproderzhynsk, while a section remained without power for a long time, which seriously complicated the life of the Ukrainian brigade in Dnipropetrovsk. In Bakhmach in the Chernihiv region, power transmission lines supplying the Cheremushky, Kruty, and Khalimonovo stations were hit. The power supply to a critical railway hub, through which trains carrying ammunition and technical equipment from central regions pass, was disrupted. In Barvinkove in the Kharkiv region, the "Toretska" substation was destroyed.
The following night, the Russians attacked the Chuhuiv Aircraft Repair Plant — at least ten strikes. Energy infrastructure facilities in the Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions were also damaged. Specifically, the "Pavlodaruglya" substation was destroyed in Pavlohrad. And on Saturday night, rockets, aviation, and drones made one of the most extensive combined attacks against the Ukrainian infrastructure: at least 120 "Geran" drones, "Kinzhal," "Iskander," and "Kalibr" missiles were used.
The main strikes were directed at targets on the territory of the left bank of Ukraine. Among the targets — the Dnipro Thermal Power Plant and the industrial zone of Pavlohrad.

Without electricity and water

As a result, there were power and water outages in Dnipro. In the Kharkiv region, the Zmiivska TPP, CHP 5, and CHP 6 were hit again. The city was partially left without electricity, and the subway is not operating. In the Poltava regions — in Kremenchuk, Hlobyne, Kotelva — the air supply infrastructure was hit. CHP 5 in Kyiv was hit, as well as energy network facilities in Boryspil, Odesa, the Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv.
This week, the attacks flared up again. Railway workshops were damaged in the Odesa region, in the city of Hrebinka in the Poltava region. The methodical work on such critical objects for logistics will make the supply of Ukrainian formations to the frontline very difficult.

Rehearsal

"Perhaps we only saw a rehearsal," claims energy expert Stanislav Mitarhovich. "If needed, Russia could destroy all of Ukraine's backup production, including thermal power plants. Nuclear power plants alone will not cope because they operate on a stable production schedule. Without backup production, meaning without gas, lignite, and hydroelectric stations, nothing can be done. And then a complete blackout will be absolutely realistic," Mitarhovich stressed.

Outages for over 12 hours

On Monday, the state company DTEK, announcing the loss of one gigawatt of production, warned of power outages of over 12 hours. In several regions, including Kyiv, the Kyiv region, Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Poltava, there is already no electricity for four hours a day. Ukrainian publications are publishing photos and videos of cities plunged into darkness. In the Odesa region, there was a widespread malfunction at the border, and a huge queue formed at the crossing points.

Pipes will burst

Warnings are also being issued for the heating system under the risk of pipes bursting, while there is also a danger of the sewage system not working. If the pumping stations do not work, this poses health problems. Industry will also stop. "Strikes on energy targets are a more humane way of impacting the Ukrainian military industry, because it is deprived of such a necessary resource. Without electricity, you don't produce much," points out political scientist Aleksey Anpilogov.

Systemic nature

But the main goal, obviously, is the weakening of Ukrainian forces before the winter campaign. Strikes with precision weapons on thermal and hydroelectric substations, and on locomotive engine repair shops, will sooner or later be reflected in military logistics. The supply to the front will worsen. The load on road transport will multiply, as they will use the regular roads. Every accident implies that a military column will be immobilized for a few hours, and if it is serious, for days. In winter, with ice, there will be more accidents. Moreover, a frozen military column immobilized along the road is an ideal target for a missile or drone. As a result, the advanced units will receive fewer resources necessary for operational action. Systematic strikes against the rear directly affect the front. Currently, this is not very visible, but here the effect is cumulative. And the more often the Russians hit, the harder it will be for their opponent to fight them.

Rubio (US Secretary of State): Weapons we give Ukraine turn to ash within a week

The US and Ukraine are holding negotiations for the supply of weapons that can protect the energy infrastructure, claimed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while pointing out that Russian forces destroy the air defense systems delivered to Ukraine just one week after their delivery.
"We are holding negotiations with them for the supply of defensive weapons that can protect their energy system. I know we are holding continuous technical negotiations on the specific equipment they need. But in the end, if this equipment is destroyed just one week after installation, the problem remains. And so it has been for the last two or three years," Rubio said, who stressed that according to US estimates, Russia is currently not ready for a peaceful resolution. He believes that the new meeting between presidents Putin and Trump should lead to concrete results.

Ursula von der Leyen (EU): We will supply Ukraine with over 2 gigawatts of electricity

The EU will supply Ukraine with over 2 gigawatts of electricity to compensate for production losses due to the conflict, announced European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. During a speech at the European Parliament, Von der Leyen said that the EU will send over 2 gigawatts of electricity to Ukraine to help stabilize the country's energy system and cover production losses due to the war.
"We will restore the damages. We will stabilize Ukraine's energy system, sending over 2 gigawatts of electricity from our Union to Ukraine," the Commission President stated, emphasizing that the EU will "protect critical infrastructure," using, among other things, "new anti-drone equipment."

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