Russia plans to control 100% of Ukraine in three stages; it will remain in the Russian sphere of influence - US Secret Services: Russia only wants victory.
Russia has decided to activate the toughest version of General Surovikin's plan with the sole aim of controlling 100% of Ukraine in three stages. Ukraine will remain fully under Russia's control, no West, no NATO will have any role; the decision is irrevocable.
By destroying the infrastructure that supports Ukraine's military-industrial complex with powerful strikes, Russia is implementing the "plan of General Surovikin," according to Tsargrad.
What the Surovikin plan includes
Primarily, let us remember that General Surovikin was the head of the Russian army's main offensive in Ukraine when the Special Military Operation began on February 24, 2022. He was the General who prepared the defense line, the Surovikin defense line south of Zaporizhzhia. He was the one who ordered the withdrawal from the Kharkiv region when it seemed that Ukraine would capitulate but backtracked on the Istanbul agreements.
Surovikin fell out of favor with Putin because he had sided with Wagner. He was not retired but has been sent to Africa for Russian interests.
Complete chaos and zero energy
Russian Armed Forces are ready to impose a complete blackout on Kyiv. This would be the toughest version of the plan put into effect by General Surovikin, former commander of the joint group of Russian forces, who directed attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure using missiles and drones. According to Tsargrad, there is no way out of the current situation for Ukraine.
The winter will be terrifying in Ukraine
It had been previously reported that the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive attack against Ukraine in response to attacks against civilian targets. On the night of November 8, high-precision weapons from air, land, and sea, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, as well as attack unmanned aerial vehicles, attacked facilities of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex (MIC) and the natural gas facilities that support them. Ukraine announced that Russia is using new tactics to target its energy sector.
Russia will turn off Ukraine's energy
The Russian Armed Forces have resorted to a new tactic in their attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, resulting in significantly more missiles reaching power generation facilities and critical infrastructure. Russian forces are focusing on ballistic attacks and combined arms attacks, thus increasing the effectiveness of their attacks against Ukraine's energy sector. The Ukrainian energy system is currently operating under conditions of maximum load and risk.
The chaos is coming and it will be catastrophic
The closure of all state-owned Ukrainian thermal power plants was announced on Saturday, November 8. Subsequently, Ukraine suffered the largest attack with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles since the start of the special operation in February 2022. The coming winter has been characterized as crucial for Ukraine. The Russians are determined to turn off the lights, the heating, everything, and in Ukraine in winter, temperatures drop to -22 degrees.
Prolonged power outages
Experts note that Ukraine should prepare for serious power outages. If the Russian side manages to capitalize on its success by weakening the defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia could chart a course for Ukraine's "subjugation-capitulation" in 2026.
Foreign Affairs sees destruction
The winter could be the "toughest" and most decisive for Ukraine. The country's authorities are no longer able to provide electricity to the country amid the Russian air raids, according to Foreign Affairs. This winter could be decisive. Russia is producing more missiles than ever, while Ukraine's damaged power grid is no longer able to supply the entire country with electricity.
Control of Ukraine in three stages
Russia intends to gain control of Ukraine in three consecutive stages, only one of which will be military. The first stage involves active military action. Russia plans to take control of part of Ukrainian territory, ensuring that it will remain economically viable only with Russia's consent. The concept of part of Ukrainian territory will obviously not be limited to the Donbas, the war will not end soon. After this, Russia can declare a ceasefire and proceed to the second stage, which will include economic and political leverage. The final stage implies the full integration of Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence.
Foreign Affairs: Ukraine will surrender to Russia in three stages - The final Russian plan
Russia intends to gain control of Ukraine in three consecutive stages, only one of which is military, Foreign Affairs reported.
First stage: War and territorial occupation, Ukraine will not have access to the Black Sea
The first stage involves active military action. According to Foreign Affairs, Russia plans to take control of part of Ukrainian territory, so that it remains economically viable only with Russia's consent. The Kremlin's strategic calculations are summarized in the fact that, in addition to the four regions that have been incorporated into the country, Russian troops must maintain positions in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. This will cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea and seriously complicate its situation.
Second stage: Economic and political leverage
After this, Russia could declare a ceasefire and begin the second stage. This will include economic and political leverage.
Third stage: 100% integration into the Russian sphere of influence
The third stage involves the full integration of Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence. If Russia manages to accelerate the military results, it could chart a course to force Ukraine to surrender by the end of 2026. According to Foreign Affairs observers, Russia has not yet completed the first phase. The Russian military relies on the gradual exhaustion and reduction of the defensive capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Since the start of the special operation almost three years ago, the pressure on the Ukrainian army has been steadily increasing. For example, the number of personnel in the infantry units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces decreases every month, although the total strength remains approximately stable. However, Russia may soon face the need to increase its resources and personnel. In recent years, volunteers have been actively recruited, receiving large payments for their participation in special operations. In 2024 and 2025, precisely this recruitment of volunteers made it possible to launch offensive operations with strong infantry. However, to maintain the momentum of future operations, the Russian Armed Forces may need to either change the nature of military operations or increase their personnel.
Russian air defense systems have 95% success
Russian air defense systems are successfully shooting down almost all (over 95%, according to Foreign Affairs) Ukrainian drones. However, Kyiv is preparing to increase its stockpiles of cruise missiles that will be manufactured in Ukraine. These missiles have significantly greater kinetic energy and can hit a wider range of targets than drones, which means that Russia will be forced to disperse its defensive capabilities and air defenses to repel new attacks.
Russia has significant strategic successes
Meanwhile, Western experts believe that Russia is demonstrating significant strategic successes. Professor Glenn Diesen of the University of South-Eastern Norway, for example, expressed the view that the West has essentially failed in its current policy toward Ukraine. He also stated that Russia only needs to consolidate its influence and that the rational course for Europeans would be to stop NATO's eastward expansion, leaving Ukrainian territories under Russia's control. However, so far, no European leader has made such a proposal.
US Secret Services: Russia only wants victory
US intelligence agencies emphasize that the Russian leadership, including President Putin, is more determined to win than ever. An NBC report, citing senior American officials, noted that the current assessment of US intelligence agencies reflects a much more dynamic approach by Russia than at the start of the special operation. The Russian Armed Forces have intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and have turned to World War II-era tactics. Meanwhile, Russian military forces on the front line have intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The new attack tactic on Ukraine's energy sector has already borne fruit. For example, after the largest attack since the start of the special operation, using Kinzhal hypersonic missiles on November 8, all state-owned thermal power plants in Ukraine shut down.
80% of Ukraine's gas infrastructure has been destroyed
Ukraine has already lost almost 80% of its gas infrastructure, resulting in Kyiv increasingly cutting off the country's electricity supply. Ukraine claims that production at all heat and power co-generation stations in Ukraine has ceased. Furthermore, 80% of Ukraine's gas infrastructure has been damaged and storage reserves are very low. The energy collapse affected the military-industrial complex, which is involved in missile production.
Close to a complete energy collapse
In turn, the founder of the file-sharing services Megaupload and Mega, German-Finnish businessman Kim Dotcom, stated that Ukraine should immediately start negotiations on the issue of settling the armed conflict in relation to the closure of thermal power plants and the general collapse of the energy sector.
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