(upd 2) The Indian government officially labeled as a terrorist act the explosion of a car bomb that occurred on 10 November 2025 at the historic Red Fort in Delhi, causing at least eight deaths and over 20 injuries.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged that “the Indian services will get to the root of the conspiracy and those responsible will not go unpunished.”
The National Investigation Agency (NIA), responsible for counterterrorism, undertook the investigation of the case.
Authorities invoked the Unlawful Activities Act, which allows detention of suspects without trial, a sign of the severity with which the incident is being handled.
In a resolution adopted on 12 November, Modi’s cabinet described the attack as a “heinous terrorist act by anti-national forces” and ordered an “immediate and professional investigation to identify the perpetrators, their accomplices, and their financiers.”
Just one day after the attack in Delhi, a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a courthouse in Islamabad, killing at least 12 people and injuring more than 27, further fueling concerns of new waves of terrorism and destabilization in South Asia.
On a razor’s edge - Military forces at the borders of the two countries
The timing coincidence of the two attacks caused intense concern in both capitals. New Delhi accused “paramilitary circles with connections in Pakistan,” while Islamabad condemned the attack in Delhi, rejecting any involvement.
However, actions on the ground indicate something different. According to military sources, Pakistan is moving armored and mechanized units toward the eastern border, in Punjab province, near the Line of Control (LoC) with India.
At the same time, India has placed its forces in Kashmir and Rajasthan on heightened alert, with the Indian Air Force conducting continuous surveillance patrols.
Security sources in Islamabad confirm that armored units and artillery are being deployed along the border with India. This movement, according to the Pakistani Army, is “preventive” and aims to “protect national sovereignty.”
However, many observers consider it a show of force and preparation for possible escalation.
The situation is further aggravated by recent statements from the Chief of the Pakistani Army, General Asim Munir, who warned that Pakistan “will respond decisively to any Indian aggression” and reminded that “the range of Pakistani nuclear weapons covers the entirety of India.”
The history of the tension
The ceasefire declared on 10 May 2025, after four days of clashes, included the largest air battle between India and Pakistan since 1971, as well as mutual missile and drone strikes.
Despite this ceasefire, tension remains high, with continuous military exercises, weapons tests, NOTAM issuances, and statements from military and political leadership.
At the same time, the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is reactivated with full state support, increasing the risk for India.
Military and political rhetoric underscores that the region is walking a path toward confrontation.
India’s continuous military exercises
Even after the ceasefire, the Indian Armed Forces maintain a state of constant readiness.
In the six months following Operation Sindoor, India has participated in 20 military exercises, roughly one every ten days, both internationally and domestically.
Some of the most significant exercises include:
1) Tiger Claw (26 May – 10 June 2025) with U.S. commandos at Chandigarh Air Base
2) Nomadic Elephant XV (31 May – 13 June 2025) with Mongolia
3) Shakti (18 June – 1 July 2025) with France#
4) SIMBEX 2025, SLINEX 2025, Mitra Shakti with Singapore and Sri Lanka
5) Yudh Abhyas 2025 with the U.S. Army in Alaska for high-altitude training
6) Konkan 2025 with the United Kingdom, where Su-30MKI aircraft train against stealth F-35s
In India, the exercises focus on high altitude, AI and AR/VR technology integration, tri-service coordination (Army, Navy, Air Force), and hybrid-warfare testing.
Imágenes impactantes de Gran Canaria, España, donde el @IAF_MCC participa en el Ex Ocean Sky 2025. El Jefe de Estado Mayor del @EjercitoAire, España, General del Aire Francisco Braco Carbó, interactuó con el contingente de la IAF, recordando con cariño su visita a la India para… pic.twitter.com/ZpjCkksNMU
— India in Spain (@IndiainSpain) October 27, 2025
War declarations from India
The Indian leadership has clearly expressed its determination:
1) Rajnath Singh (Minister of Defense): Any violation in Sir Creek will have historical and geographical consequences: “the road to Karachi passes through the Creek.”
2) General Upendra Dwivedi (Army Chief): If Pakistan continues the state-supported terrorist mechanism, India will not show the same restraint as in Operation Sindoor 1.0.
3) Air Chief Marshal Preet Singh: A need for readiness and integration of all services for future conflicts.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeated that Operation Sindoor has not ended, but has merely “remained on standby.”
Pakistan also on alert and bringing out the nuclear weapons
Pakistan, for its part, is strengthening the military authority of its air force.
The explosion in New Delhi is the first major attack in mainland India since 2014, increasing the likelihood of a strong military response.
In the midst of the war crisis, Pakistan is distancing itself from the principle of equal standing among the heads of the three branches, Army, Navy, Air Force.
The Army remains responsible for defending land borders and internal security, while air and naval power are vital for power projection and influence on a global level.
The Navy protects vital sea lanes, trade routes, and energy resources, while the Air Force provides surveillance and air dominance.
However, all this seems secondary before the proposed 27th Amendment of Pakistan, which introduces major changes to the military command and judicial structure of the country. A central feature is the creation of the position Chief of Defence Forces, which will replace the current Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC).
In the new structure, the Army Chief will always hold this position, with the heads of the Navy and Air Force subordinate to him.
Military dominance in Pakistan is not limited to politics.
The economic power of the military is also enormous: the Pakistani military establishment controls 12% of the country’s land and maintains numerous commercial enterprises, from construction and industrial projects to restaurant chains and airlines.
Many former generals hold positions as ambassadors or high state officials, with huge financial benefits, as shown by revelations in the Pandora Papers.
This military-centric power means that Pakistan will continue focusing its security primarily on the eastern and western borders, India and Afghanistan.
The Pakistanis have warned that “the range and lethal power of our nuclear weapons will crush India’s mistaken perception of geographical immunity.”
At the same time, the reactivation of terrorist infrastructure with state support is being advanced. 
Deadly tension
Pakistan has conducted tests of Shaheen-III and Fatah-IV missiles and other ballistic or hypersonic systems.
NOTAMs issued in October and November indicate ongoing tests and increased military activity.
The constitutional strengthening of the military, combined with the revival of terrorist infrastructures such as Jaish-e-Muhammed, creates an explosive mix that threatens India.
Since Modi assumed leadership in 2014, India had not experienced a major terrorist attack outside Kashmir.
If the explosion near the Red Fort proves to be a terrorist act, it will be the first major attack in the heart of India since 2014, potentially triggering a high-intensity military response.
Tension between India and Pakistan is at a historic high.
India’s constant military readiness, extensive exercises, missile and drone tests, combined with state-supported terrorist groups in Pakistan, make a new military confrontation likely.
The explosion in New Delhi could become the trigger for the launch of Operation Sindoor 2.0, with significant consequences for security, politics, and geopolitical stability in the region.
Nuclear power terrifies
A new element is added to the explosive mix: the shift in the nuclear balance.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, India now has approximately 180 nuclear warheads, surpassing Pakistan’s 170.
At the same time, the Indian strategy is being upgraded with MIRV technology, the ability to launch multiple nuclear warheads from a single missile, transforming Agni-5 missiles into tools of deterrence and simultaneous strike capability.
In contrast, Pakistan is struggling with economic constraints and the need to maintain a respectable deterrent power against the clearly superior Indian military machine.
The gap becomes even clearer in the numbers: $79 billion for India’s defense spending for 2025–26, compared to just $8 billion for Pakistan’s.
The official Indian policy is “No First Use,” meaning it will not use nuclear weapons first.
However, in recent years, high-ranking officials have left room for ambiguity, especially in the event of a chemical or biological attack or a massive terrorist act.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has no No First Use policy.
Instead, it has invested in tactical nuclear weapons to offset India’s conventional superiority, a choice that lowers the threshold for nuclear use in a potential conflict.
This creates a dangerous strategic environment: with minimal reaction time, high political pressure, and a historically hostile relationship, the risk of miscalculation or overreaction rises dramatically.
Thus, due to other weaknesses as well, it is most likely that Pakistan would open the gates of nuclear hell first.
The timing could not be worse for the international community.
South Asia is left alone to manage its own crisis.
And yet, the stakes are global.
Two states with a history of wars, without trust, and with unstable internal political balances hold nuclear weapons in their hands.
Not merely as deterrence, but as an active strategic tool.
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