A new, worrying dimension in the already tense relations that have taken shape in the Middle East appears to be developing over Syria.
According to the Jerusalem Post, the risk of confrontation between Turkey and Israel remains high, with unmanned aircraft, drones, at the center of potential military clashes.
In the Israeli media, the notion of the “Turkish threat” dominates.
The Jerusalem Post describes Syria as a “Turkish protectorate,” with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appearing as the “protector” of the Syrian leader Ahmed Sharaa.
Analysts warn that the interests of the two countries are disconnected, and any clash could manifest mainly through unmanned aircraft.
The beginning with the Mavi Marmara
The deterioration in relations between the two countries begins with the Turkish naval mission Mavi Marmara in 2010, which had many consequences.
One of the less discussed ones was the severing of the close relationship between Israeli defense industries and the Turkish defense establishment, which included the supply of Heron drones from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI).
Israeli technicians stopped visiting Turkey, and due to poor maintenance, the drones collapsed.
“Look how the Israeli drones are crashing,” President Erdogan commented sarcastically, without referring to the lack of maintenance.
Years passed, and today the two countries compete for dominance of the global drone market.
However, beyond the above, Israel and Turkey could collide in Syria, which has turned into a Turkish protectorate under Ahmed al-Sharaa, who operates in harmony with his protector, Erdogan.
“Turkey is an important rival, and a conflict between the countries in Syria could happen even by accident,” explains Dr. Eyal Pinko from the Department of Political Studies and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.
“Given that the Turks are in northern Syria because they are interested in oil and natural gas, and Israel is mainly in the South, a conflict could, if it happens, unfold in the air.
Clashes with manned aircraft are less likely due to the high risk of escalation, so if either side wants to carry out small attacks as warnings, this could be done with drones.”
Alon Unger, president and founder of the Unmanned Vehicles Israel Defense (UVID) conferences and founder of the UAV community in Israel, warns that “what awaits us in the skies of Syria is not Gaza.
In the drone domain, states allow things that they do not allow elsewhere.”
Such a clash could highlight Israeli and Turkish UAVs, which are already well known in the market.
A study by Molly Campbell at CNAS (Center for a New American Security) showed that Israel was the largest supplier of suicide drones in the world between 1995 and 2023, while Turkey, which entered the market in 2018, supplied more attack drones than any other country.
The weapons of both countries are “battle-tested,” but to different degrees.
Israeli and Turkish drones were used by Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia in the Second Karabakh War in 2020.
Then, at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 impressed, but a few months later the Russians found an appropriate counter.
During the Israeli operation in Iran in June, Israeli drones from IAI, Elbit Systems, and Aeronautics dominated the skies of Iran, even over major city centers.
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a specialist in Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, notes that the Turkish media are careful not to provide coverage for Israeli drones.
This measure exists even though the local industry relied on Israeli and American products.
“Erdogan uses the expression ‘the strict landlord turns the tenant into a landlord somewhere else.’
That is, because the Turks relied on Israel for drone acquisition and were not provided good service, the Turks chose to develop their own drones,” explains Dr. Cohen Yanarocak.
In Gaza and Lebanon, the Turks avoid praising Israeli technology.
However, when one opens the report of the Turkish Intelligence Academy on the Israeli operation in Iran, one sees they are well informed about Israel’s progress and analyze its means and effectiveness.
The struggle for weapons exports
The two countries also compete for the top positions in global drone exports.
Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that Israel ranks 8th among exporters, with a share of about 3.1% of total trade in 2020–2024, while Turkey ranks 11th, with 1.7%.
However, trend analysis shows that while Israel declined slightly by about 3.2% between 2015–2019, Turkey rose by about 0.8%.
The drone sector was a major pillar of the Turkish defense industry in 2022–2024, accounting for 25%–33% of total defense exports.
In contrast, Israel lags significantly, as official data show.
According to SIBAT, drones represented 25% of Israeli defense exports in 2022, but fell to 4% in 2023 and to just 1% in 2024, despite the fact that, according to Unger, there are more than 300 companies in the Israeli ecosystem.
The Israeli drone industry will gather for the traditional UVID exhibition at Expo Tel Aviv on 26 November.
Data provided to Globes by analysts ABG-SC before the event show the scale of Turkish drone exports: dozens of Akinci and Aksungur, around 100 Anka, and over 600 Bayraktar TB2.
The Bayraktar TB2, the Akinci, and other models are manufactured by Baykar Corp, whose president and CTO is the son-in-law of President Erdogan, Selcuk Bayraktar. The company leads Turkish defense exports by a large margin, with $1.8 billion in revenues in 2024.
In second place is Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAŞ), with $750 million, and in third is the naval shipbuilder ASFAT ($644 million), strengthening the Turkish navy.
“Drones as a development lever”
Unger promotes in Israel the vision of “UAVs as a national development lever,” which aims to coordinate all ministries for organizing activity in the sector.
This concerns not only the Ministry of Defense, but also the Ministry of Economy and Industry, which recognizes it as a potential development lever for the defense sector.
Thus, the Defense and Cyber Cluster operates within the Economic Development Agency of the Ministry of Economy and the General Staff, under the leadership of Elinor Jacobson.
Because of domestic and international trends, Unger calls for an awakening in the drone sector after the lack of preparedness revealed at the start of the war.
Before the war, there was discussion about whether drones should be abandoned entirely because of relatively cheap Chinese products, especially DJI, but immediately after 7 October the need for Israeli independence became clear.
The Turks, it seems, can produce and export in large quantities.
Reports from abroad show that Turkey exported defense products to 178 countries last year, marking an increase of 103% from 2015–2019.
According to SIPRI, its main customers are the UAE, Pakistan, and Qatar.
Excluding the UAE, which also buys from Israel, Pakistan and Qatar highlight how different the main export markets of Turkey and Israel are.
According to SIPRI, 34% of Israeli exports in 2020–2024 went to India, 13% to the USA, and 8.1% to the Philippines.
In the recent India-Pakistan escalation in May, Israeli and Turkish weapons, especially drones, clashed directly, with the Indians satisfied.
This influenced their decision this week to sign a strategic cooperation agreement between the Ministries of Defense and India’s desire to acquire new systems from Israel, mainly missiles.
Differences with Ankara
The number of different countries to which Turkey exports reveals the major differences between the Israeli Defense Export Control (DECC) and Turkey’s more indiscriminate strategy.
The latter is willing to export almost to any country, even to countries that do not have the funds for even a single drone.
For these countries, the Turks created a model under which they give one or two drones “as gifts,” but secure maintenance services.
Contrary to this policy, Unger warns of the consequences of over-regulation.
In Israel, even a parachute drone requires approval.
In the past, Israel was innovative in marketing.
In 2010, the USA asked NATO members to provide flight hours in Afghanistan.
The Germans turned to Israel and leased Heron 1 drones from IAI.
Unger says: “The uniqueness of Israel was expressed also in innovative sale methods.
Leasing is not common in the defense sector: payment per hour.
However, since then countries have developed capabilities and the need for this has decreased.
Engagements
“Engagements with manned aircraft are less likely due to the risk of escalation, but small warning attacks via drones are clearly possible.”
At the same time, Alon Unger, President and Founder of Israel’s Unmanned Aircraft Defense Conferences (UVID), adds: “What awaits us in the skies over Syria is not Gaza.
In the world of drones, countries allow themselves things they have not done elsewhere.”
The drones of both countries are already “proven combat-worthy.”
Turkish and Israeli UAVs have fought side by side, as in the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and the India-Pakistan tensions in May.
Their involvement in Syria could, according to experts, further highlight their technological products, strengthening the position of both states in the global defense-equipment market.
A recent study by Molly Campbell from CNAS records that between 1995 and 2023, Israel was the largest supplier of kamikaze drones in the world, while Turkey, which entered the sector in 2018, managed to surpass any other country in attack drones.
The UAV sector was the backbone of the Turkish defense industry between 2022 and 2024, representing up to 33% of Turkey’s defense exports.
This tension brings Syria to the center of an aerial battlefield that no one can ignore.
Experts warn that Turkey and Israel may find themselves facing a “drone war,” with unpredictable consequences for the region.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών