In 1992, the countries that today make up the BRICS bloc accounted for less than 20% of global production, while the G7 countries held approximately 45%, maintaining a clear superiority over the rest of the world. Three decades later, the picture has changed dramatically. According to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the BRICS' GDP in purchasing power parity terms will exceed 31% of the global total by 2028, while the G7 will fall below 30%.
The rise of China and India
China and India are the main driving forces behind the shift of economic power towards the East, accounting for almost two-thirds of BRICS economic output. The combination of their vast populations and increasing productive capabilities has dramatically strengthened their position in the global economy. For comparison, China's GDP stood at 5% of global output in 1990, while today it approaches 19%. India, from 3%, has reached 8% over the same period, indicative of the speed at which emerging markets are developing.
The slowdown of the G7 and demographic challenges
Conversely, the economies of the G7 countries face stagnation and demographic pressures that limit their developmental momentum. Although they still possess strong currencies, developed labor markets, and stable industrial bases, their growth rates now lag behind emerging economies.
This change does not constitute an immediate threat to the West, but it has symbolic and geoeconomic significance, as it shifts the "center of gravity" of the global economy. Western countries that dominated global growth for decades now see the East approaching—and in some cases, surpassing it.
A new era of economic realignment
The last three decades brought a clear realignment in favor of the BRICS, however, the coming decades may determine whether this course will be consolidated or balanced. In 2025, the G7 bloc still maintains economic health, stable markets, and strong positions in trade and investment. Nevertheless, the global economic stage is changing. Whether the G7 will be able to maintain its primacy over the next 30 years or whether the BRICS will emerge as the new dominant economic force remains one of the most important questions of our time.
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