China threatens the US and global security.
China has proceeded with a significant expansion of its missile production facilities since 2020, bolstering its capacity to deter potential US military intervention in the region, particularly in the event of a conflict with Taiwan.
According to a CNN analysis, more than 60% of the facilities related to missile production or the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLA) have been expanded since 2020, with the construction of more than 2 million square meters of additional space. China appears to be strengthening its capability for new and more sophisticated missiles, while some factories have replaced villages and cultivated land over the past five years. Strategic missiles, such as the DF-26, which are considered capable of hitting areas like Guam, are important for the Chinese deterrence strategy.
China appears to be revising its estimates for missile needs after the war in Ukraine, boosting its production with the aim of dealing with any military conflict in the region. Experts warn that the development of these missile systems could have serious implications for global security and lead to a new "cold war" between the major powers, while there is concern that this could escalate into a "hot war" with the risk of the conflict generalizing. China's strategy highlights the need for rapid development and technological upgrading of its military capabilities, affecting the balance of power in the Pacific and globally.
China is massively developing missile production facilities
China has embarked on a massive expansion of facilities linked to missile production since 2020, enhancing its ability to deter US military action and assert its dominance in the region, a new CNN analysis based on satellite images, maps, and government announcements reveals. This historic increase stands in stark contrast to the US government's own procurement difficulties. Over 60% of the 136 facilities related to missile production or China's space force (which controls the country's nuclear arsenal) show signs of expansion in the satellite images.
The facilities, which include factories as well as research and testing centers, have expanded by more than 21 million square feet (over 2 million square meters) in built indoor space between early 2020 and the end of 2025. New towers, bunkers, and earthen berms related to weapons development have appeared in satellite images of these expanding areas. In some cases, missile parts are visible in the images.
"This is China positioning itself as a global superpower. We are in the initial phase of a new arms race," said William Alberque, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum and former NATO arms control director. "China is already running and preparing for a marathon." The data shows an urgent effort to grow the capacity to produce new and more sophisticated missiles. Some of the production facilities analyzed by CNN have rapidly replaced villages and cultivated land, increasing their size by tens of thousands of square feet over the past five years.
Satellite images
CNN located the facilities, including more than a dozen not previously reported, by examining publicly available information about China's two largest state-owned defense contractors and their subsidiaries, and then cross-referencing the findings with geospatial analysis. Since taking power in 2012, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has invested billions of dollars in purchasing and upgrading military equipment, as part of a clearly defined goal to rapidly transform the country's armed forces, known as the People's Liberation Army (PLA), into a "world-class" fighting force.
Xi has also strengthened the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), an elite branch that oversees China's rapidly growing nuclear and ballistic arsenal. He himself has described this force as the "core of strategic deterrence, a strategic pillar for the country's position as a major power, and a foundation upon which national security will be built." China's missile production facilities supply almost all branches of its military, which is the largest military force in the world with over 2 million active personnel.
Nuclear threat
US President Donald Trump made a tour of East Asia the previous week, meeting leaders, including Xi. Trade discussions dominated the meetings, but there were signs of increasing tension due to Beijing's explosive nuclear and conventional arsenal. Ahead of the talks with the Chinese president, Trump ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear testing on an "equal footing" with China and Russia, initiating a significant shift in US strategy after decades.
Beijing and Moscow have not conducted nuclear explosive tests for over 25 years. However, Washington is closely monitoring the progress of the two countries, which continue to develop and test advanced weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads. China, meanwhile, is increasing its nuclear arsenal at a faster rate than any other country, increasing its stockpile by approximately 100 new warheads annually since 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in June. Despite this continuing increase, China's total nuclear stockpile remains significantly behind that of the US and Russia, which together possess 90% of the world's nuclear arsenal, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Plans for a possible conflict with Taiwan
Weapons experts state that the missile systems produced at the expanding facilities examined by CNN will be a key element in a potential Chinese military effort to take over Taiwan, the autonomous island that Beijing considers part of its territory. Missiles are central to China's strategy to keep the US Navy at bay in the event of a conflict, with a zone off the Chinese coast, which experts call the "anti-access bubble," aimed at preventing Washington from offering aid to Taiwan.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) seeks "to create the conditions for the invasion of Taiwan," said Decker Eveleth, a research associate at the CNA national security research group and an expert on China's missile forces. "This means firing at ports, helicopter bases, supply bases. Firing at any target that theoretically can allow the offer of support to Taiwan. They want to destroy infrastructure in the region and keep everything else out," he added.
CNN identified 99 sites linked to missile production and found that 65 of these facilities have been expanded with built indoor space, which, according to experts, can have an exponential effect on the scale of China's missile production. Furthermore, CNN analyzed 37 bases belonging to the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) and found that 22 of them have been expanded over the past five years.
The US faces supply problems
In December 2024, the Pentagon estimated that China's Rocket Force had bolstered its missile stockpile by 50% over the previous four years. CNN's analysis of the production infrastructure for these weapons shows that China's efforts continue uninterrupted, offering new information on the locations producing these missiles.
Earlier this year, China approved a 7.2% increase in its defense budget, raising total spending to approximately $245 billion. This increase marks the fourth consecutive year with a rise of over 7% in military spending, although many experts believe that China's real spending is likely to be much higher than the official number. The apparent increase in missile production by China comes at a time when the US is depleting sophisticated defense systems in Ukraine and Israel, causing ammunition shortages and sparking discussions in Washington about how and where to deploy its state-of-the-art weapons.
The role of the Middle East
In July, CNN found that the US had exhausted approximately 25% of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-aircraft defense systems during the defense of Israel from Iranian ballistic missile attacks in the 12-day war in June. The US government has since expanded an earlier contract, increasing the agreement with the defense company Lockheed Martin by over $2 billion to boost THAAD production.
However, these anti-aircraft defense systems—which cost approximately $12.7 million per unit according to the 2025 Missile Defense Agency budget—also require time to build. The THAAD system was initially deployed within the US and in the Pacific region and is considered a critical part of the US deterrence strategy against China.
Despite its ability to shoot down China's missiles, experts warn that the Pentagon's supply problems, combined with Beijing's pursuit of more sophisticated missiles, pose an increasing threat to American interests.
Corruption in the military leadership
CNN's findings indicate that China dramatically increased missile production in response to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which is considered a turning point for global security. CNN's satellite image analysis reveals that Beijing almost doubled the rate of expansion of missile production facilities in the two years after the war in Ukraine began. "They are monitoring Ukraine with incredible attention," said William Alberque, an expert on China's missile arsenal. "Now they are watching real war action between two very capable forces with the most modern technologies clashing, and they are taking copious notes."
The People's Liberation Army (PLA), which has not engaged in combat since the brief conflict with Vietnam in 1979, is drawing lessons from current conflicts. Russia's aerial assault on Ukraine has shown that the surest way to hit sensitive targets is to overwhelm sophisticated Western air defense systems with cheap munitions, such as drones, to allow stronger ballistic missiles to reach their targets. This requires increasing the production of both cheap and expensive missiles. According to Alberque, China previously estimated that it would need 5,000 or 10,000 missiles to defeat Taiwan. However, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Beijing's estimates have increased exponentially.
PLA readiness problems
However, the PLA also faces its own difficulties. A broad and ongoing anti-corruption campaign within the senior ranks of the Chinese military leadership has cast doubt on the country's actual combat readiness. Many high-ranking army officers associated with the Rocket Force, including two former defense ministers, have been removed from their positions over the past two years, with official reports implying that corruption is linked to the increase in PLA arms procurement.
"I think they have recognized corruption as something that has really posed major risks to the political reliability and ultimately to the operational capability of the PLA," a senior US Department of Defense official stated in December.
Identification of secret military facilities
Information from China's two largest state-owned defense companies, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), formed the basis of CNN's analysis, which examined documents from government announcements to identify these secret locations. These companies and their subsidiaries produce the majority of China's conventional and nuclear missiles and missile systems.
While Beijing uses codes to conceal some of its military projects, CNN's research revealed and located the sites. For example, a government announcement earlier this year mentioned a construction project in Shaanxi province, belonging to the CASC 4th Academy, which is widely known as the main contractor for solid-fuel missiles. Other government announcements mentioned the size and general location of the project. Based on this information, CNN was able to determine the exact coordinates of this site. Although the project is still in an early stage, satellite images already show the construction of blast walls, as is the case in other missile production facilities.
Implications for missile production
For all locations, CNN measured the additional built-up building space per year since 2020 and analyzed the specific installations visible in satellite images to determine their use. Experts say that the additional built-up space can lead to an exponential increase in the production capacity of specific missiles.
One site in Beijing, which has expanded by almost 50% since 2020, is involved in the production of the famous DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile, according to the China Aerospace Studies Institute. Defense experts call the DF-26 the "Guam killer." A variant of this weapon, the DF-26D, equipped with a hypersonic flight vehicle, was first presented at China's famous military parade in September. The unpredictable flight path of the DF-26D makes it possible, although not certain, that the missile can overcome interceptors and reach Guam, the US territory that hosts Andersen Air Force Base, the launch point for US long-range bombers.
Risks to global security
The location and layout of the missile-related facilities analyzed by CNN vary significantly. Some factories are integrated into cities, next to residences and restaurants, while others are located in remote valleys, traversing steep terrain. The majority of these facilities were built near organizations related to the aerospace defense industry.
The purpose of some sites seems clear from the satellite images. What looks like parts of space rockets may be seen parked on the apron, while sections of old missiles are found in yards surrounded by grass. Other facilities show clear signs of preventive measures against the risks associated with missile production—buildings are fenced off by high mounds of earth and concrete, as a safety measure against the risk of explosions. Some of the sites analyzed by CNN have less obvious visual elements linking them to missile production. However, evidence of their involvement, based on their ownership, their collaborations, or the often secretive nature of their locations, makes it clear that at least part of their operation is related to weapons.
Testing facility in Shaanxi province
For example, a Shaanxi Aerospace testing facility in Sanyuan province, located in remote mountains near Xi'an, appears uninteresting and unassuming. However, an announcement examined by CNN revealed that a university unit, which has been sanctioned by the US due to its ties to the Chinese military, as well as a major CASC subsidiary contributing to missile production, are involved in the construction of the facility.
According to a university announcement, this site can be used to simulate flight environments useful for the development of hypersonic weapons. In China, sectors critical to national security, such as aerospace technology, do not exist independently of the state security apparatus.
Concerns
The increase in China's missile systems has caused concern among arms control experts, who warn that this development is reshaping global security. "I think there is already a cold war," said David Santoro, president and CEO of the Pacific Forum, a foreign policy institute focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. "This is happening across all domains, and the risk is that it will evolve into a hot war."
This assessment underscores the growing tensions in the region and the broader geopolitical consequences of the Chinese strategy, which may lead to serious reversals in the balance of power and global security.
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