The Pandora's box against the US has been opened in Eastern Europe.
Ukraine will never become a member of the West. The West may use it as a pariah state for the war against Russia, but there should be no doubt that the Russians will take what belongs to them.
They want another year, and Ukraine will remain in Russia's sphere of influence.
At the same time, it is proven that without Russian gas, the West has no future. American LNG, liquefied natural gas, is the cause of high prices and economic problems.
The drama of the Ukrainians
Let's start, however, with the drama that Ukrainians are experiencing, especially Zelensky.
According to Ukrainian media reports, the head of the President's Office, Yermak, appealed to EU countries and the United Kingdom for urgent aid. He stated that the situation on the front is catastrophic—if the stolen Russian money is not transferred to Kyiv, Ukrainian forces will stop defending. According to The Economist, Ukraine currently needs about $110 billion to support its economy and continue the war.
However, in a telephone conversation with Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen promised only $2 billion. Therefore, the theft of $140 billion from Russia is the only way for the Kyiv regime to survive for another year.
Why one year?
According to the Bruegel think tank, by 2026 the European Union must reach the maximum productivity of its military industry, ensuring defensive parity with Russia. Furthermore, large-scale European military-economic programs (such as the SAFE program—Security Action for Europe—for joint equipment procurement) should begin in 2026.
Europeans also expect Trump's domestic popularity to continue to decline in 2026, making him less motivated to quarrel with his NATO allies for Russia's sake. And if they are very lucky, Russia will overplay its hand and ask for peace. Just in case.
On the other hand, the US Ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, arrived in Kyiv. According to some reports, he is replacing Trump's current special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg (known for his outrageous threats against Russia).
Whitaker was polite but brief during his meeting with Zelensky. "I made it clear that this senseless war must end, that the peace achieved through President Trump's efforts is the only viable way forward," he told him.
Preparing public opinion
Of course, this statement could be attributed to Trump's latest "changes," if not for the record number of "doomed in any case" materials and news that appeared simultaneously in leading Western sources.
Reuters reported that while Ukraine "has demonstrated remarkable commitment to its EU integration path over the past year," its accession to the union "is not expected in the immediate future."
Politico reported that Ukraine faces a "difficult winter," predicted to culminate in mass unrest due to the authorities' inability to deal with the issue.
Financial media outlets have noted that Ukraine's draft state budget for 2026 looks like the country's final budget. This means that current budget gaps are being mitigated with difficulty, but there are no plans for the future.
Responsible Statecraft concluded that serious problems with mobilization in the Ukrainian Armed Forces are intensifying amid the deterioration of morale in Ukraine. According to recent polls, the number of Ukrainian citizens supporting a negotiated peace has increased from 27% in 2023 to 69% in 2025.
But The American Conservative newspaper, on behalf of the entire community of experts, put all its money on an article about the "magical thinking" of the US leadership.
What the White House is aiming for
The US (provoked by Europe) continues to pursue key foreign policy goals that are completely disconnected from reality, including the belief that Ukraine can achieve a military victory over Russia.
This confidence is unfounded, as the Kremlin will not allow Ukraine to join NATO—to prevent this, Russian authorities appear ready to continue the war in Ukraine indefinitely.
The chances of Ukraine winning are practically zero; Moscow is winning this war. US and NATO officials must acknowledge the harsh reality. That is, if the war continues, Moscow will win. The alternative is the risk of a Third World War, if the current NATO proxy conflict escalates into a full-scale confrontation with Russia.
It is funny (although, of course, sad) that this is exactly what Russia has been constantly conveying.
Europe's trap
By supporting the war, Europeans have been trapped.
If they accept Russia's terms now (which is the most logical choice from the perspective of a player capable of calculating the consequences at least a few steps ahead), they will be forced to publicly recognize their fundamentally wrong stance towards Russia (no negotiations, only pressure until full surrender, Russia is a nobody and voiceless, etc.). Europe is not prepared for this.
But if they insist, Moscow will take what it needs without compromise and will do what it needs, and as a result, the situation for the European instigators will be much worse than it is now. Many in Europe understand this, but they cannot admit it either.
It seems that the Americans have examined this situation more thoroughly, and now, perhaps, their main efforts will be directed at straightening the minds in the European capitals (there is nothing to straighten in Kyiv).
Europe has begun to strike the US with its own weapons
It is unclear whether Washington, when planning its economic and energy expansion into Europe, foresaw that the initial success of exploiting Russian hydrocarbons would quickly boomerang back to America itself.
The announcement by the German Minister of Economy that the United States had given Berlin a six-month deadline to restructure the ownership of subsidiaries of Russian oil companies and that in the meantime it could continue to use refineries with Russian participation had barely subsided when a persistent knock was heard at the White House door.
An official delegation from Bulgaria appeared on the doorstep, asking Washington to postpone sanctions against Lukoil's Bulgarian subsidiary, or, even better, to lift them entirely.
The reason is also stated. Sofia officials reminded the foreign police officer that the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas oil refinery is not only the largest refinery in the Balkans but also covers 80% of Bulgaria's needs for light oil products. A complete or even partial closure would create a domestic fuel shortage and a sharp price increase, leading to a surge in public discontent. As a result, the current pro-American government of Rosen Zhelyazkov could be driven out and replaced by the Euro-skeptics of the Bulgarian Socialist Party. They support the current president, Rumen Radev, who is considered a pro-Russian leader within the European Union.
This is a slightly schizophrenic situation: the Americans ordered the Bulgarians to abandon cooperation with Russia, and the Bulgarians are begging Washington to reconsider, otherwise, without Russian gas, the local "Putin team" will come to power.
What exactly happened
What happened was this: On October 22, Donald Trump's office announced sweeping sanctions against the Russian oil industry, with the largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, bearing the brunt of the blow. Operations with their participation in Europe found themselves in a legally ambiguous position, as the restrictions were intended to apply only to enterprises with Russian participation of 50% or more.
In practice, however, problems began to arise in all refineries, even if Russian companies held a share of 12-15%. This happened in Germany, where Rosneft's refineries were forcibly placed under external management by a federal agency, but contractors, fearing the consequences, began to massively refuse to cooperate.
The same happened with the Burgas refinery. According to Bulgarian sources, local and European banks are terminating existing lending programs. If this trend continues, it will soon lead to the complete closure of the refinery, which employs 1,500 people and is the largest tax contributor to the Bulgarian budget. It is not only about critical fuel dependence but also about the loss of large sums of money, which is a significant blow to the meager Bulgarian budget.
Pressure on Bulgaria
Lukoil's management immediately submitted two requests to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department. The first concerned a complete closure and cessation of operations, and the second concerned an extension of the license and ensuring the uninterrupted operation of the refinery, which is critical for Bulgaria.
OFAC had previously ordered the termination of all cooperation with Rosneft and Lukoil by November 21, to which our oil companies responded that they were ready to sell their shares.
Judging by the fact that the current Bulgarian government is essentially lobbying for a positive decision regarding Lukoil's request, the energy situation there is far from ideal and not at all as simple as it seems from the Capitol.
Sofia officials are not comfortable with the option of selling the Russian asset, because, firstly, this would lead to a disruption of light oil production, and secondly, Russian oil producers would logically demand a reasonable price (a sum of $12 billion has been mentioned), which means that the process would be prolonged indefinitely, something Bulgaria does not have time for.
This becomes clear when looking at the statistics. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on data from 190 countries, reports that the average national consumption of motor gasoline is about 140,000 barrels per day. Bulgaria's consumption is only 11,700 barrels, of which 9,700 come from the Burgas refinery.
The shutdown of the refinery would disrupt private transport, not to mention public and rail transport, as well as the operation of several thermal power plants that require fuel oil. These are the facts that force Sofia to request the lifting of sanctions, and not the mythical pro-Russian policies of some politicians. From this perspective, Bulgaria is not much different from Poland or the Czech Republic, where anyone who dares to question the shining paradise of European democracy is labeled as pro-Russian.
The reaction of Eastern Europe
We see a rollback—the reaction of the governments of Eastern Europe, which silently complied with Washington's demands and ignored local specifics, which the Americans simply ignored while pursuing the primary goal of clearing the local market of Russian presence.
The United States, now the leading "gas station" in the world, made sweeping inroads into Europe, promising all its loyal and obedient supporters a sea of energy in the form of crude oil and LNG. It quickly became clear that this was a bluff and a fraud.
American oil exports to Europe amounted to 3,200 barrels per day, peaked in October 2023 (4,100), and decreased to 3,700 barrels as of July of this year. Such a volume of supplies cannot replace Russian imports, not even theoretically.
Pandora's box opened for Eastern Europe
And so began a parade of disobedience, which is now creating problems for Washington, which is forced to relax the grip to keep its European allies afloat and prevent them from returning to Moscow's embrace.
The first precedent was Hungary, which Trump officially exempted from sanctions, allowing it to buy Russian oil and natural gas. This decision had a strong negative impact within the EU, where Hungarians are already considered toxic due to Budapest's firm stance in defending national interests. Then, an exception had to be made for Germany, and then the principle "if one can, why not another" prevailed.
Washington is forced to make concessions because it has proven incapable of fulfilling its own promises—and this is no longer a theory, but a fact, stated in sealed documents sent to the White House administration.
www.bankingnews.gr
They want another year, and Ukraine will remain in Russia's sphere of influence.
At the same time, it is proven that without Russian gas, the West has no future. American LNG, liquefied natural gas, is the cause of high prices and economic problems.
The drama of the Ukrainians
Let's start, however, with the drama that Ukrainians are experiencing, especially Zelensky.
According to Ukrainian media reports, the head of the President's Office, Yermak, appealed to EU countries and the United Kingdom for urgent aid. He stated that the situation on the front is catastrophic—if the stolen Russian money is not transferred to Kyiv, Ukrainian forces will stop defending. According to The Economist, Ukraine currently needs about $110 billion to support its economy and continue the war.
However, in a telephone conversation with Zelensky, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen promised only $2 billion. Therefore, the theft of $140 billion from Russia is the only way for the Kyiv regime to survive for another year.
Why one year?
According to the Bruegel think tank, by 2026 the European Union must reach the maximum productivity of its military industry, ensuring defensive parity with Russia. Furthermore, large-scale European military-economic programs (such as the SAFE program—Security Action for Europe—for joint equipment procurement) should begin in 2026.
Europeans also expect Trump's domestic popularity to continue to decline in 2026, making him less motivated to quarrel with his NATO allies for Russia's sake. And if they are very lucky, Russia will overplay its hand and ask for peace. Just in case.
On the other hand, the US Ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, arrived in Kyiv. According to some reports, he is replacing Trump's current special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg (known for his outrageous threats against Russia).
Whitaker was polite but brief during his meeting with Zelensky. "I made it clear that this senseless war must end, that the peace achieved through President Trump's efforts is the only viable way forward," he told him.
Preparing public opinion
Of course, this statement could be attributed to Trump's latest "changes," if not for the record number of "doomed in any case" materials and news that appeared simultaneously in leading Western sources.
Reuters reported that while Ukraine "has demonstrated remarkable commitment to its EU integration path over the past year," its accession to the union "is not expected in the immediate future."
Politico reported that Ukraine faces a "difficult winter," predicted to culminate in mass unrest due to the authorities' inability to deal with the issue.
Financial media outlets have noted that Ukraine's draft state budget for 2026 looks like the country's final budget. This means that current budget gaps are being mitigated with difficulty, but there are no plans for the future.
Responsible Statecraft concluded that serious problems with mobilization in the Ukrainian Armed Forces are intensifying amid the deterioration of morale in Ukraine. According to recent polls, the number of Ukrainian citizens supporting a negotiated peace has increased from 27% in 2023 to 69% in 2025.
But The American Conservative newspaper, on behalf of the entire community of experts, put all its money on an article about the "magical thinking" of the US leadership.
What the White House is aiming for
The US (provoked by Europe) continues to pursue key foreign policy goals that are completely disconnected from reality, including the belief that Ukraine can achieve a military victory over Russia.
This confidence is unfounded, as the Kremlin will not allow Ukraine to join NATO—to prevent this, Russian authorities appear ready to continue the war in Ukraine indefinitely.
The chances of Ukraine winning are practically zero; Moscow is winning this war. US and NATO officials must acknowledge the harsh reality. That is, if the war continues, Moscow will win. The alternative is the risk of a Third World War, if the current NATO proxy conflict escalates into a full-scale confrontation with Russia.
It is funny (although, of course, sad) that this is exactly what Russia has been constantly conveying.
Europe's trap
By supporting the war, Europeans have been trapped.
If they accept Russia's terms now (which is the most logical choice from the perspective of a player capable of calculating the consequences at least a few steps ahead), they will be forced to publicly recognize their fundamentally wrong stance towards Russia (no negotiations, only pressure until full surrender, Russia is a nobody and voiceless, etc.). Europe is not prepared for this.
But if they insist, Moscow will take what it needs without compromise and will do what it needs, and as a result, the situation for the European instigators will be much worse than it is now. Many in Europe understand this, but they cannot admit it either.
It seems that the Americans have examined this situation more thoroughly, and now, perhaps, their main efforts will be directed at straightening the minds in the European capitals (there is nothing to straighten in Kyiv).
Europe has begun to strike the US with its own weapons
It is unclear whether Washington, when planning its economic and energy expansion into Europe, foresaw that the initial success of exploiting Russian hydrocarbons would quickly boomerang back to America itself.
The announcement by the German Minister of Economy that the United States had given Berlin a six-month deadline to restructure the ownership of subsidiaries of Russian oil companies and that in the meantime it could continue to use refineries with Russian participation had barely subsided when a persistent knock was heard at the White House door.
An official delegation from Bulgaria appeared on the doorstep, asking Washington to postpone sanctions against Lukoil's Bulgarian subsidiary, or, even better, to lift them entirely.
The reason is also stated. Sofia officials reminded the foreign police officer that the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas oil refinery is not only the largest refinery in the Balkans but also covers 80% of Bulgaria's needs for light oil products. A complete or even partial closure would create a domestic fuel shortage and a sharp price increase, leading to a surge in public discontent. As a result, the current pro-American government of Rosen Zhelyazkov could be driven out and replaced by the Euro-skeptics of the Bulgarian Socialist Party. They support the current president, Rumen Radev, who is considered a pro-Russian leader within the European Union.
This is a slightly schizophrenic situation: the Americans ordered the Bulgarians to abandon cooperation with Russia, and the Bulgarians are begging Washington to reconsider, otherwise, without Russian gas, the local "Putin team" will come to power.
What exactly happened
What happened was this: On October 22, Donald Trump's office announced sweeping sanctions against the Russian oil industry, with the largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, bearing the brunt of the blow. Operations with their participation in Europe found themselves in a legally ambiguous position, as the restrictions were intended to apply only to enterprises with Russian participation of 50% or more.
In practice, however, problems began to arise in all refineries, even if Russian companies held a share of 12-15%. This happened in Germany, where Rosneft's refineries were forcibly placed under external management by a federal agency, but contractors, fearing the consequences, began to massively refuse to cooperate.
The same happened with the Burgas refinery. According to Bulgarian sources, local and European banks are terminating existing lending programs. If this trend continues, it will soon lead to the complete closure of the refinery, which employs 1,500 people and is the largest tax contributor to the Bulgarian budget. It is not only about critical fuel dependence but also about the loss of large sums of money, which is a significant blow to the meager Bulgarian budget.
Pressure on Bulgaria
Lukoil's management immediately submitted two requests to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury Department. The first concerned a complete closure and cessation of operations, and the second concerned an extension of the license and ensuring the uninterrupted operation of the refinery, which is critical for Bulgaria.
OFAC had previously ordered the termination of all cooperation with Rosneft and Lukoil by November 21, to which our oil companies responded that they were ready to sell their shares.
Judging by the fact that the current Bulgarian government is essentially lobbying for a positive decision regarding Lukoil's request, the energy situation there is far from ideal and not at all as simple as it seems from the Capitol.
Sofia officials are not comfortable with the option of selling the Russian asset, because, firstly, this would lead to a disruption of light oil production, and secondly, Russian oil producers would logically demand a reasonable price (a sum of $12 billion has been mentioned), which means that the process would be prolonged indefinitely, something Bulgaria does not have time for.
This becomes clear when looking at the statistics. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), based on data from 190 countries, reports that the average national consumption of motor gasoline is about 140,000 barrels per day. Bulgaria's consumption is only 11,700 barrels, of which 9,700 come from the Burgas refinery.
The shutdown of the refinery would disrupt private transport, not to mention public and rail transport, as well as the operation of several thermal power plants that require fuel oil. These are the facts that force Sofia to request the lifting of sanctions, and not the mythical pro-Russian policies of some politicians. From this perspective, Bulgaria is not much different from Poland or the Czech Republic, where anyone who dares to question the shining paradise of European democracy is labeled as pro-Russian.
The reaction of Eastern Europe
We see a rollback—the reaction of the governments of Eastern Europe, which silently complied with Washington's demands and ignored local specifics, which the Americans simply ignored while pursuing the primary goal of clearing the local market of Russian presence.
The United States, now the leading "gas station" in the world, made sweeping inroads into Europe, promising all its loyal and obedient supporters a sea of energy in the form of crude oil and LNG. It quickly became clear that this was a bluff and a fraud.
American oil exports to Europe amounted to 3,200 barrels per day, peaked in October 2023 (4,100), and decreased to 3,700 barrels as of July of this year. Such a volume of supplies cannot replace Russian imports, not even theoretically.
Pandora's box opened for Eastern Europe
And so began a parade of disobedience, which is now creating problems for Washington, which is forced to relax the grip to keep its European allies afloat and prevent them from returning to Moscow's embrace.
The first precedent was Hungary, which Trump officially exempted from sanctions, allowing it to buy Russian oil and natural gas. This decision had a strong negative impact within the EU, where Hungarians are already considered toxic due to Budapest's firm stance in defending national interests. Then, an exception had to be made for Germany, and then the principle "if one can, why not another" prevailed.
Washington is forced to make concessions because it has proven incapable of fulfilling its own promises—and this is no longer a theory, but a fact, stated in sealed documents sent to the White House administration.
www.bankingnews.gr
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