Discussions in Germany about banning the AfD are reigniting, a fact that demonstrates how the power apparatus - faced with the rise of an anti-systemic and patriotic movement - prefers to restrict Democracy rather than address the causes that created it. The AfD, however, represents a large segment of society that feels excluded, angry, and disappointed by Berlin’s political establishment. For this reason, supporters of an AfD ban face a difficult “electoral arithmetic,” making the possibility of a prohibition unlikely - though not impossible.
The polls
To understand why a ban is considered unlikely, it is first necessary to describe what would happen if such a measure were implemented.
The AfD is currently the most popular party in the country, according to numerous polls, gathering 25–27% of voting intentions. That alone makes its banning inconceivable to many; however, the German establishment does not seem to pay much attention to what the electorate thinks on fundamental issues. Therefore, why not simply ban the party?
Radical change of the electoral landscape
First and foremost, banning the AfD would radically reshape the electorate in favor of the Left. This would mean a massive loss of power for the Christian Democrats (CDU), who could potentially be pushed to the margins of the political scene. Based on this harsh reality, such a move could prove to be political suicide for the CDU.
The example of Ludwigshafen
The recent municipal elections in Ludwigshafen reveal what could happen at the national level if the AfD were outlawed.
There, the AfD candidate, Joachim Paul, was leading in the polls for mayor until he was barred from running through behind-the-scenes bureaucratic procedures - a decision later upheld by the courts despite his appeals. Paul continues to pursue legal proceedings, which could last for months or even years.
Regardless of the final outcome, the election data are revealing:
1) Voter turnout collapsed to a historically low 29.3%, while in the 2017 elections it had reached 60.2%.
2) The number of invalid ballots skyrocketed to 9.2%, compared to 2.6% eight years earlier - an increase of nearly 400%.
If a similar phenomenon occurred in national elections, with AfD supporters massively abstaining, the CDU would face a catastrophic electoral result.
Germany’s electoral system means that the right-wing voter base would shrink dramatically, leaving mainly CDU and Left voters in the picture. But this smaller electorate would include a much higher proportion of left-wing voters - from the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke - who could form an overwhelming majority.
Even if the CDU gathered 30-35%, it could easily be sidelined by a new Left-wing coalition - precisely what the CDU fears.
The electoral paradox
The German Left does not need to increase its absolute number of votes; it only needs to increase its share of the total. If, for example, in the next national elections only 35% of the population voted, it would be a democratic disaster - but politically, it could be a huge victory for the Left.
As long as the Right abstains, the “pie” of voters becomes more Left-leaning - and the Left gains a larger share of this smaller pie. Thus, the Left acquires a super-majority with a smaller number of total voters.
The CDU’s deadlock
The problem for the Left is that it needs CDU support in the Bundestag to pass the ban - something that makes approving the proposal extremely difficult, since the CDU has no incentive to undermine itself.
Beyond electoral arithmetic, the CDU would also be internally divided.
A Insa poll shows that 43% of Germans oppose the ban, 35% support it, 10% are indifferent, and 12% did not answer.
Among CDU voters, the issue is split: 42% in favor, 41% against.
Already, many CDU voters have shifted toward the AfD. A ban could intensify this exodus, while the case would remain pending for months or even over a year until the Constitutional Court, which has the final say, issued its decision.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that banning the AfD “too closely resembles the elimination of political opponents.” CDU voters heard that statement. If he and his party now retract it, they will lose even more credibility - especially during a period of economic hardship and migration pressure.
Even many Left-wing voters believe that banning the AfD would be a blow to Democracy.
If, in the end, the ban were implemented and elections were held amid a collapse in participation due to mass boycotts, the German political system could descend into chaos, with the legitimacy of any resulting government called into question.
The most likely scenario
The Left will likely continue to push for an AfD ban, as it serves its political interests.
The CDU, on the other hand, will continue to condemn the AfD in words and fight it through institutions, but without officially supporting the ban - something that would be politically foolish.
Of course, nothing is ruled out: political balances, internal party conflicts, or unforeseen factors could lead Merz and the CDU leadership to change their stance.
However, the risks clearly outweigh the potential gains. Therefore, for now, the banning of the AfD remains rather unlikely.
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