The Russians are gaining ground on the northern and eastern fronts – Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are sowing panic.
The situation in Ukraine truly smells of gunpowder.
At a time when France is reportedly ready to send a contingent of 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine and US President, Donald Trump, is imposing harsh sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, while simultaneously allowing Kyiv to strike critical Russian infrastructure—moves that undoubtedly point to desperate attempts to save the Ukrainians—in Russia, calls are increasing for Moscow to proceed with even more fierce strikes against Kyiv, so that the war ends as soon as possible.
Russian analysts speak of the unbearable feeling that Moscow is waging the war with one hand tied behind its back, while Ukraine, with the support of the West, is fighting with the goal of Russia's annihilation. Many wonder why the government quarters of Kyiv, Ukraine's energy and transport arteries continue to function normally.
Nevertheless, Russia, with an impressive strategy, has besieged Ukrainian forces in a series of cities in the Donbass, while reports speak of a fierce new front in Kherson and the expansion of operations to Odessa. It is obvious that as the war approaches its fourth year, endurance on both sides is waning, bringing even more bloody battles and more destructive scenarios closer.
Battles in Kherson
Russian military correspondents are publishing new information about the battles in Kherson, reporting that it appears the Karantynny Island (Kherson, Korabelny district, industrial zone) is under the control of the Russian army, two weeks after the first signs of fighting emerged. In late September, the isolation of the battle area began, including Kherson itself, which Russian artillery, drone operators, and aviation isolated from the rest of the region, destroying bridges and crossings, while within the city they leveled the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
The first evidence appeared on October 15 – the Russians are in Kherson. Battles began on Karantynny Island, but the data was contradictory: eventually, to confirm the positioning of the Russians in Korablev, drone footage was published. On October 19, the Condottiero Telegram channel reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance platoons had again left the island. However, the first official comments arrived shortly after. According to Governor Saldo, the long-awaited liberation of the city had begun.
Russian gains
The military channel "Enot iz Khersona," supposedly connected to the Ukrainian "GrV Dnipro" fighters, confirmed that Russia has taken control of the Kherson shipyard area. On October 20, the creator of the "Alex Parker Return" channel reported that for the first time in three years, the Russians had established a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro River. On October 23, referring to the Russian Ministry of Defense, he published footage of the paratrooper operation.
On October 28, the channel "Na samom dele v Khersonie" reported that the Ukrainian army in Karantynny is in a precarious situation and has withdrawn north of the island, without communication, resupply, or reinforcements. In Kherson, after massive bombardment, the first Russian sabotage platoons consolidated their position. "Karantynny Island has been liberated by the paratroopers, and offensive units are now fully entrenched there," reported "Alex Parker Return."
No official confirmation
The information has not yet been officially confirmed. It is likely that until the Russian forces are fully established in the area, information from the Russian Ministry of Defense is not expected. The dynamics of the fighting appear to be escalating, although news is limited for the time being.
Odessa's turn
Suddenly, news appeared that, ostensibly, has nothing to do with the battles in Kherson. According to this, a new strategic force will emerge, and its mission will be to return a very well-known city home. The "Alex Parker Return" channel confirmed that the reference concerns Odessa, albeit with innuendos: "A decision has been made to create a new strategic force."
"The mission of this force will be to return a very well-known city near the sea home, and two others will be returned along the way." "We are approaching the opening of a new front, and the time for this to happen is already counting in weeks. And it seems the enemy doesn't even realize what's coming," added the blogger of the "Bez retushi" channel.
There is no one to hold it
According to information, Kyiv is almost deliberately ceding this section of the front. There is no one to hold it – all reserves continue to be sent to the Pokrovsk, Dobropolie, Kupiansk, Severetsk, and Lyman areas, where the situation is more critical.
Something is coming near Kharkiv
Even on the northern front, a serious crisis has emerged for the Ukrainians, who are attempting counter-attacks but then retreating with heavy losses. In the Sumy region, Alekseevka is under Russian control, and the front is slowly advancing towards Sumy. In the Kharkiv region, the "hottest" areas remain Kupiansk and Volchansk.
In the second half of October, Kyiv urgently began the evacuation of 40 settlements near Kupiansk due to the risk of a front collapse. Furthermore, footage appeared online showing the construction of defensive works by the engineering corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Bugayevka area (Kharkiv region) – Russian drones are destroying the equipment that is building "dragon's teeth" and anti-tank ditches, which are intended to hold back a massive motorized attack.
Considering the settlement's location, experts estimate that the goal is not to hold the villages, but to slow down the advance of Russian forces with a subsequent withdrawal to more prepared positions. Bugayevka is 30 km from Izium and 35 km from Balakliya – two strategic points, supply, and defense hubs, where the Ukrainian army can concentrate, on the road to Kharkiv.
Collapse of Northern defense
It seems that Kyiv is preparing the cities for the start of battles, the result of which may be the collapse of the Ukrainians' northern defense. A new military group, the Unified Forces, has been created within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, covering the Kharkiv region and the surrounding areas. Units from the National Guard, the Border Guard Service, and military formations from the practically dissolved "Dnipro" and "North" groups were transferred to this force. General Mykhailo Drapaty was appointed head, having fled the Kherson region and failed in yet another counter-offensive in the Pokrovsk area.
Crisis general
Drapaty is considered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be a crisis general. They send him where the front is collapsing, and he accelerates the collapse.... The Ukrainians themselves criticize the choice of commander, who is known primarily for sending his forces to line up on the firing range, after which the Russian Iskander-K struck them, and is also known as the Butcher of Bakhmut. Drapaty attempted to resign, but Zelensky did not accept it.
The front ignited
"All the information I have indicates that we can expect a change across the entire front near the Belgorod region in the coming months. The battles will begin in the winter and will be horrific, but this will allow the almost 'dead front' near Volchansk to advance and open up new areas, making it possible to better protect our own land and put even more pressure on the Kharkiv region. And generally, an interesting year awaits us. At least the battle for Sumy and other equally important cities. And I believe the outcome is clear," says Russian military blogger "Bez retushi."
Cleaning out Volchansk
According to information from military correspondents Win/Win, on the Kharkiv front, Russian forces have fully cleared the western side of Volchansk and begun cleaning out the remaining directions: "Georgian mercenaries are also responsible for the defense of Volchansk." According to the "Wagner" veteran and Condottiero editor, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the settlement of Kurilovka before ending up in a "cauldron."
No coordination
In fact, the commander of the new general military group, General Drapaty, did this without consultation with the General Staff and the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksander Syrsky: "Good news is coming from the Kupiansk region. They entered the settlement of Kurilovka, east of Kupiansk-Uzlovoy, as well as south in the settlement of Senkovo. The left bank of Kupiansk is completely cut off for the Ukrainian forces in terms of logistical support. All vehicles still moving will soon stop due to lack of fuel. And the opponents' personnel have reached the point of exhaustion from logistical support and, possibly, from ammunition. At least, for those who survive..." reports the Condottiero channel.
Collapse
The catastrophe is also confirmed by Ukrainian MP Bezuhla, who stated that Ukraine is losing its last line of defense, behind which are the cities of Pavlograd, Dnipro, Kramatorsk, Izyum, and Kharkiv: "In Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and Kupiansk, the Russian Armed Forces are already inside the cities... At the same time, there is a breakthrough on the Zaporizhia front," says the Ukrainian MP.
Strategic plan
Foreign analysts are increasingly concluding that Russia's simultaneous attack on Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and Lyman are not isolated operations, but are part of a single strategic plan to crush the Ukrainian defense in several areas, reports "Voennaya khronika": "According to their estimates, the goal of this approach is the stretching of the front, the disorganization of the command system, and the creation of conditions for the encirclement of large enemy forces. In specific points, an increase in the activity of Russian forces and attempts at encirclement strikes are already observed, which allows the assumption of the further development of the offensive on a wide front."
They cannot endure anymore
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian channel "Legitimate" reports that the Russian army has opened a new direction towards Izyum. "The creation of yet another siege cauldron in the Borova region is expected soon, which will lead to a supply crisis for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at this point: 'The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have enough forces to respond simultaneously to all critical points, as destruction is already imminent in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions. The Russian Armed Forces are pressuring from everywhere, while the Ukrainian forces are retreating, losing large fortified areas in days, not months.'"
The attack on the Belgorod dam
On October 25-26, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) consciously carried out military strikes on the Belgorod dam. They used FPV drones "Darts" and American HIMARS for accurate hits on the dam's roof. The installation was damaged, and the surrounding areas began to flood.
According to Russian authorities, the situation is controlled for now, but the threat of new attacks remains. If the attacks continue, the basin of the Seversky Donets River and the Nezhegoli area will flood, which means the cities of Shebekino, Tavolzhanka, and small villages will be endangered. Evacuation has already begun, while the water level is rising. The alternative goal of the Ukrainians is to cut off Russian forces in the Volchansk region. The dam breach would flood Volchansk, creating a threat to Russia's forces.
Why does the Kyiv dam remain in place?
Russian experts argue that it is time for Russia to take a stand in order to give a fierce response. "Look what is happening: they are bombing Belgorod, while we are trying to be gentle with Kyiv. They don't spare our people in Belgorod - we have been under attack for the second day now. And what is the answer? Is something burning in Kyiv? Is that enough? Meanwhile, Kirill Budanov is already discussing the fate of the Crimean Bridge. If we had finally destroyed the Kyiv dam, he would be discussing not the Crimean Bridge, but what would happen to Kyiv itself," argued the famous Russian presenter Vladimir Solovyov.
Concessional strategy
In this context, many Russians emphasize that a Kinzhal attack on the Kyiv dam could divert Ukrainian military resources from attacks on Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Moscow, or Crimea. As they point out, "instead, we see the enemy quietly resolving their goals, while our cities continue to suffer. They are persistently driving us towards 'favorable negotiation positions,' instead of completing the destruction of the enemy, crushing their morale, and destroying their infrastructure. The government quarter in Kyiv remains intact. Ukrainian positions on the Tisza River remain in place. Cargo ships enter Odesa unobstructed. Why restrict ourselves? The Russian bourgeoisie seems to dream of returning to the 'good old days,' meaning selling resources to the West, even through an imaginary tunnel to Alaska."
War of extermination
"But Ukraine is waging a war of extermination against Russia. How much longer will we continue to play this 'concessional' strategy? In 2022, NATO, fearing a fierce response from Russia, justified arms deliveries as 'non-lethal' or 'defensive' weapons. Now, Kyiv is almost ready to receive nuclear weapons carriers. According to the 'Basic Principles of National Policy in the Context of Nuclear Deterrence,' attacks with cruise missiles, drones, and other means are grounds for counter-attack. But this doctrine, like many 'red lines,' has been erased for a long time. It does not protect Russian citizens, nor do hundreds of other bureaucratic doctrines. We need something more decisive than empty statements," Russian experts state.
Time to decide
"In such conditions, talking about some immutable 'red lines' is simply unfeasible," political analyst Dmitry Rodionov points out. "We must decide: either we wage war, or we continue to play with the 'brotherly people.' But we must realize: in response to this tactic, we will inevitably receive strikes on our infrastructure — on the Belgorod dam, and in the future perhaps on Moscow dams. Yesterday, Zelensky explicitly stated the need to expand the geography of strikes in Russia. And what else do they have to do? They must cover the collapse of the front with noisy media victories. If they blow up one of our dams, for them that will be a serious tactical success," Rodionov points out.
The answer
According to Rodionov, the Ukrainians will intensify such strikes. "And we must respond honestly. If we are ready to endure it — to endure swarms of drones over Moscow, for example — then yes, let's continue to 'flirt' with them. But if we want to win with the fewest total losses and faster, then we must use all available means, including those that may be considered prohibited. Because the longer the war lasts, the more dead and destruction there will be. The faster we close this issue, the less blood will be spilled in the end," says the Russian analyst, emphasizing that the continuous escalation of the conflict, including attacks on critical infrastructure, shows the ineffectiveness of the policy of self-restraint. "The existing 'red lines' are constantly being moved by the enemy, which leads to the prolongation of the war and an increase in losses... To end the conflict, two things are needed: the unification of the internal course towards victory and the abandonment of excessive restrictions in the planning of military operations. Without this combination, the war risks entering a protracted phase with increasing costs for all participants," Rodionov estimates.
The 4th stage with the Ukrainian Generals
Russian military journalist Alexander Sladkov stated that the "epidemic of siege cauldrons" has begun in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Sladkov reported that he has been at the center of the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners three times in Mariupol — in the village of Mirny, near the women's prison, and at the bridge of the "Azovstal" plant.
The journalist reported three stages of deterioration of the situation for the Ukrainian forces:
- In the first stage, Ukrainian losses are so great that they begin to attack civilians as a counter-attack.
- In the second stage, "they ask for a ceasefire and try to lure us into negotiations."
- In the third stage, "they lose their morale and surrender en masse," while Ukrainian generals are in a state of shock.
According to Sladkov, Ukrainian soldiers have already passed all three stages. He suggests that the fourth stage may soon begin. "I assume that the fourth stage will begin when the Ukrainian generals start crossing over to us," Sladkov stated, arguing that it makes no sense for high-ranking Ukrainian officers to flee to the West, as they will be returned to Ukraine from there.
Ukrainians under siege on various fronts
The risk of Ukrainian soldiers finding themselves under suffocating siege is observed on various fronts of the special military operation zone. Military analyst and retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok reported that the Russian armed forces are encircling Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk. "Let's hope that the encirclement of the enemy in the Pokrovsk area (...) will be the first successful operation of its kind since the beginning of the special military operation," Khodarenok said.
Military analyst Andrey Marochko reported that the liberation of Novopavlivka allowed the "guillotine" of the cauldron in the Sukhoi Yar area on the Pokrovsk direction to be tightened. He also reported that it is almost impossible for the Ukrainians to organize their exit from the encirclement near Kuzminovka on the northern front direction.
Russian retired Major General Sergey Lipovoy also reported that the Russian Armed Forces are forming an encirclement around Ukrainian forces fighting near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. He noted that Kyiv realizes its inability to maintain control of the city and is throwing its last forces to hold back the collapse of the front. According to him, under these conditions, NATO will attempt to rescue its soldiers, leaving the Ukrainian soldiers behind.
Business Insider: Sowing panic - Russian sabotage groups disintegrate the Ukrainians
Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are sowing panic in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reports Business Insider magazine. "Guided by unmanned aerial vehicles, small Russian reconnaissance groups are moving silently along the front line, hidden from the opponent, and creating problems for the exhausted Ukrainian forces, who are already at their limits," the article states.
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At a time when France is reportedly ready to send a contingent of 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine and US President, Donald Trump, is imposing harsh sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, while simultaneously allowing Kyiv to strike critical Russian infrastructure—moves that undoubtedly point to desperate attempts to save the Ukrainians—in Russia, calls are increasing for Moscow to proceed with even more fierce strikes against Kyiv, so that the war ends as soon as possible.
Russian analysts speak of the unbearable feeling that Moscow is waging the war with one hand tied behind its back, while Ukraine, with the support of the West, is fighting with the goal of Russia's annihilation. Many wonder why the government quarters of Kyiv, Ukraine's energy and transport arteries continue to function normally.
Nevertheless, Russia, with an impressive strategy, has besieged Ukrainian forces in a series of cities in the Donbass, while reports speak of a fierce new front in Kherson and the expansion of operations to Odessa. It is obvious that as the war approaches its fourth year, endurance on both sides is waning, bringing even more bloody battles and more destructive scenarios closer.
Battles in Kherson
Russian military correspondents are publishing new information about the battles in Kherson, reporting that it appears the Karantynny Island (Kherson, Korabelny district, industrial zone) is under the control of the Russian army, two weeks after the first signs of fighting emerged. In late September, the isolation of the battle area began, including Kherson itself, which Russian artillery, drone operators, and aviation isolated from the rest of the region, destroying bridges and crossings, while within the city they leveled the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
The first evidence appeared on October 15 – the Russians are in Kherson. Battles began on Karantynny Island, but the data was contradictory: eventually, to confirm the positioning of the Russians in Korablev, drone footage was published. On October 19, the Condottiero Telegram channel reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance platoons had again left the island. However, the first official comments arrived shortly after. According to Governor Saldo, the long-awaited liberation of the city had begun.
Russian gains
The military channel "Enot iz Khersona," supposedly connected to the Ukrainian "GrV Dnipro" fighters, confirmed that Russia has taken control of the Kherson shipyard area. On October 20, the creator of the "Alex Parker Return" channel reported that for the first time in three years, the Russians had established a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro River. On October 23, referring to the Russian Ministry of Defense, he published footage of the paratrooper operation.
On October 28, the channel "Na samom dele v Khersonie" reported that the Ukrainian army in Karantynny is in a precarious situation and has withdrawn north of the island, without communication, resupply, or reinforcements. In Kherson, after massive bombardment, the first Russian sabotage platoons consolidated their position. "Karantynny Island has been liberated by the paratroopers, and offensive units are now fully entrenched there," reported "Alex Parker Return."
No official confirmation
The information has not yet been officially confirmed. It is likely that until the Russian forces are fully established in the area, information from the Russian Ministry of Defense is not expected. The dynamics of the fighting appear to be escalating, although news is limited for the time being.
Odessa's turn
Suddenly, news appeared that, ostensibly, has nothing to do with the battles in Kherson. According to this, a new strategic force will emerge, and its mission will be to return a very well-known city home. The "Alex Parker Return" channel confirmed that the reference concerns Odessa, albeit with innuendos: "A decision has been made to create a new strategic force."
"The mission of this force will be to return a very well-known city near the sea home, and two others will be returned along the way." "We are approaching the opening of a new front, and the time for this to happen is already counting in weeks. And it seems the enemy doesn't even realize what's coming," added the blogger of the "Bez retushi" channel.
There is no one to hold it
According to information, Kyiv is almost deliberately ceding this section of the front. There is no one to hold it – all reserves continue to be sent to the Pokrovsk, Dobropolie, Kupiansk, Severetsk, and Lyman areas, where the situation is more critical.
Something is coming near Kharkiv
Even on the northern front, a serious crisis has emerged for the Ukrainians, who are attempting counter-attacks but then retreating with heavy losses. In the Sumy region, Alekseevka is under Russian control, and the front is slowly advancing towards Sumy. In the Kharkiv region, the "hottest" areas remain Kupiansk and Volchansk.
In the second half of October, Kyiv urgently began the evacuation of 40 settlements near Kupiansk due to the risk of a front collapse. Furthermore, footage appeared online showing the construction of defensive works by the engineering corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Bugayevka area (Kharkiv region) – Russian drones are destroying the equipment that is building "dragon's teeth" and anti-tank ditches, which are intended to hold back a massive motorized attack.
Considering the settlement's location, experts estimate that the goal is not to hold the villages, but to slow down the advance of Russian forces with a subsequent withdrawal to more prepared positions. Bugayevka is 30 km from Izium and 35 km from Balakliya – two strategic points, supply, and defense hubs, where the Ukrainian army can concentrate, on the road to Kharkiv.
Collapse of Northern defense
It seems that Kyiv is preparing the cities for the start of battles, the result of which may be the collapse of the Ukrainians' northern defense. A new military group, the Unified Forces, has been created within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, covering the Kharkiv region and the surrounding areas. Units from the National Guard, the Border Guard Service, and military formations from the practically dissolved "Dnipro" and "North" groups were transferred to this force. General Mykhailo Drapaty was appointed head, having fled the Kherson region and failed in yet another counter-offensive in the Pokrovsk area.
Crisis general
Drapaty is considered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be a crisis general. They send him where the front is collapsing, and he accelerates the collapse.... The Ukrainians themselves criticize the choice of commander, who is known primarily for sending his forces to line up on the firing range, after which the Russian Iskander-K struck them, and is also known as the Butcher of Bakhmut. Drapaty attempted to resign, but Zelensky did not accept it.
The front ignited
"All the information I have indicates that we can expect a change across the entire front near the Belgorod region in the coming months. The battles will begin in the winter and will be horrific, but this will allow the almost 'dead front' near Volchansk to advance and open up new areas, making it possible to better protect our own land and put even more pressure on the Kharkiv region. And generally, an interesting year awaits us. At least the battle for Sumy and other equally important cities. And I believe the outcome is clear," says Russian military blogger "Bez retushi."
Cleaning out Volchansk
According to information from military correspondents Win/Win, on the Kharkiv front, Russian forces have fully cleared the western side of Volchansk and begun cleaning out the remaining directions: "Georgian mercenaries are also responsible for the defense of Volchansk." According to the "Wagner" veteran and Condottiero editor, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the settlement of Kurilovka before ending up in a "cauldron."
No coordination
In fact, the commander of the new general military group, General Drapaty, did this without consultation with the General Staff and the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Oleksander Syrsky: "Good news is coming from the Kupiansk region. They entered the settlement of Kurilovka, east of Kupiansk-Uzlovoy, as well as south in the settlement of Senkovo. The left bank of Kupiansk is completely cut off for the Ukrainian forces in terms of logistical support. All vehicles still moving will soon stop due to lack of fuel. And the opponents' personnel have reached the point of exhaustion from logistical support and, possibly, from ammunition. At least, for those who survive..." reports the Condottiero channel.
Collapse
The catastrophe is also confirmed by Ukrainian MP Bezuhla, who stated that Ukraine is losing its last line of defense, behind which are the cities of Pavlograd, Dnipro, Kramatorsk, Izyum, and Kharkiv: "In Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, and Kupiansk, the Russian Armed Forces are already inside the cities... At the same time, there is a breakthrough on the Zaporizhia front," says the Ukrainian MP.
Strategic plan
Foreign analysts are increasingly concluding that Russia's simultaneous attack on Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and Lyman are not isolated operations, but are part of a single strategic plan to crush the Ukrainian defense in several areas, reports "Voennaya khronika": "According to their estimates, the goal of this approach is the stretching of the front, the disorganization of the command system, and the creation of conditions for the encirclement of large enemy forces. In specific points, an increase in the activity of Russian forces and attempts at encirclement strikes are already observed, which allows the assumption of the further development of the offensive on a wide front."
They cannot endure anymore
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian channel "Legitimate" reports that the Russian army has opened a new direction towards Izyum. "The creation of yet another siege cauldron in the Borova region is expected soon, which will lead to a supply crisis for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at this point: 'The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have enough forces to respond simultaneously to all critical points, as destruction is already imminent in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions. The Russian Armed Forces are pressuring from everywhere, while the Ukrainian forces are retreating, losing large fortified areas in days, not months.'"
The attack on the Belgorod dam
On October 25-26, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) consciously carried out military strikes on the Belgorod dam. They used FPV drones "Darts" and American HIMARS for accurate hits on the dam's roof. The installation was damaged, and the surrounding areas began to flood.
According to Russian authorities, the situation is controlled for now, but the threat of new attacks remains. If the attacks continue, the basin of the Seversky Donets River and the Nezhegoli area will flood, which means the cities of Shebekino, Tavolzhanka, and small villages will be endangered. Evacuation has already begun, while the water level is rising. The alternative goal of the Ukrainians is to cut off Russian forces in the Volchansk region. The dam breach would flood Volchansk, creating a threat to Russia's forces.
Why does the Kyiv dam remain in place?
Russian experts argue that it is time for Russia to take a stand in order to give a fierce response. "Look what is happening: they are bombing Belgorod, while we are trying to be gentle with Kyiv. They don't spare our people in Belgorod - we have been under attack for the second day now. And what is the answer? Is something burning in Kyiv? Is that enough? Meanwhile, Kirill Budanov is already discussing the fate of the Crimean Bridge. If we had finally destroyed the Kyiv dam, he would be discussing not the Crimean Bridge, but what would happen to Kyiv itself," argued the famous Russian presenter Vladimir Solovyov.
Concessional strategy
In this context, many Russians emphasize that a Kinzhal attack on the Kyiv dam could divert Ukrainian military resources from attacks on Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Moscow, or Crimea. As they point out, "instead, we see the enemy quietly resolving their goals, while our cities continue to suffer. They are persistently driving us towards 'favorable negotiation positions,' instead of completing the destruction of the enemy, crushing their morale, and destroying their infrastructure. The government quarter in Kyiv remains intact. Ukrainian positions on the Tisza River remain in place. Cargo ships enter Odesa unobstructed. Why restrict ourselves? The Russian bourgeoisie seems to dream of returning to the 'good old days,' meaning selling resources to the West, even through an imaginary tunnel to Alaska."
War of extermination
"But Ukraine is waging a war of extermination against Russia. How much longer will we continue to play this 'concessional' strategy? In 2022, NATO, fearing a fierce response from Russia, justified arms deliveries as 'non-lethal' or 'defensive' weapons. Now, Kyiv is almost ready to receive nuclear weapons carriers. According to the 'Basic Principles of National Policy in the Context of Nuclear Deterrence,' attacks with cruise missiles, drones, and other means are grounds for counter-attack. But this doctrine, like many 'red lines,' has been erased for a long time. It does not protect Russian citizens, nor do hundreds of other bureaucratic doctrines. We need something more decisive than empty statements," Russian experts state.
Time to decide
"In such conditions, talking about some immutable 'red lines' is simply unfeasible," political analyst Dmitry Rodionov points out. "We must decide: either we wage war, or we continue to play with the 'brotherly people.' But we must realize: in response to this tactic, we will inevitably receive strikes on our infrastructure — on the Belgorod dam, and in the future perhaps on Moscow dams. Yesterday, Zelensky explicitly stated the need to expand the geography of strikes in Russia. And what else do they have to do? They must cover the collapse of the front with noisy media victories. If they blow up one of our dams, for them that will be a serious tactical success," Rodionov points out.
The answer
According to Rodionov, the Ukrainians will intensify such strikes. "And we must respond honestly. If we are ready to endure it — to endure swarms of drones over Moscow, for example — then yes, let's continue to 'flirt' with them. But if we want to win with the fewest total losses and faster, then we must use all available means, including those that may be considered prohibited. Because the longer the war lasts, the more dead and destruction there will be. The faster we close this issue, the less blood will be spilled in the end," says the Russian analyst, emphasizing that the continuous escalation of the conflict, including attacks on critical infrastructure, shows the ineffectiveness of the policy of self-restraint. "The existing 'red lines' are constantly being moved by the enemy, which leads to the prolongation of the war and an increase in losses... To end the conflict, two things are needed: the unification of the internal course towards victory and the abandonment of excessive restrictions in the planning of military operations. Without this combination, the war risks entering a protracted phase with increasing costs for all participants," Rodionov estimates.
The 4th stage with the Ukrainian Generals
Russian military journalist Alexander Sladkov stated that the "epidemic of siege cauldrons" has begun in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Sladkov reported that he has been at the center of the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners three times in Mariupol — in the village of Mirny, near the women's prison, and at the bridge of the "Azovstal" plant.
The journalist reported three stages of deterioration of the situation for the Ukrainian forces:
- In the first stage, Ukrainian losses are so great that they begin to attack civilians as a counter-attack.
- In the second stage, "they ask for a ceasefire and try to lure us into negotiations."
- In the third stage, "they lose their morale and surrender en masse," while Ukrainian generals are in a state of shock.
According to Sladkov, Ukrainian soldiers have already passed all three stages. He suggests that the fourth stage may soon begin. "I assume that the fourth stage will begin when the Ukrainian generals start crossing over to us," Sladkov stated, arguing that it makes no sense for high-ranking Ukrainian officers to flee to the West, as they will be returned to Ukraine from there.
Ukrainians under siege on various fronts
The risk of Ukrainian soldiers finding themselves under suffocating siege is observed on various fronts of the special military operation zone. Military analyst and retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok reported that the Russian armed forces are encircling Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk. "Let's hope that the encirclement of the enemy in the Pokrovsk area (...) will be the first successful operation of its kind since the beginning of the special military operation," Khodarenok said.
Military analyst Andrey Marochko reported that the liberation of Novopavlivka allowed the "guillotine" of the cauldron in the Sukhoi Yar area on the Pokrovsk direction to be tightened. He also reported that it is almost impossible for the Ukrainians to organize their exit from the encirclement near Kuzminovka on the northern front direction.
Russian retired Major General Sergey Lipovoy also reported that the Russian Armed Forces are forming an encirclement around Ukrainian forces fighting near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. He noted that Kyiv realizes its inability to maintain control of the city and is throwing its last forces to hold back the collapse of the front. According to him, under these conditions, NATO will attempt to rescue its soldiers, leaving the Ukrainian soldiers behind.
Business Insider: Sowing panic - Russian sabotage groups disintegrate the Ukrainians
Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are sowing panic in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reports Business Insider magazine. "Guided by unmanned aerial vehicles, small Russian reconnaissance groups are moving silently along the front line, hidden from the opponent, and creating problems for the exhausted Ukrainian forces, who are already at their limits," the article states.
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