The magnitude of the numbers is simply inconceivable: 12 American companies have a stock market value of 30 trillion dollars? It should be noted that the GDP of the US is approximately 30.8 trillion dollars in nominal prices for 2025, according to the forecasts of the IMF. There are only so many trillions of dollars that can disappear from investor portfolios before a recession is triggered. Trillions of dollars are now passing before us so fast that it is difficult to perceive them. The "dirty little secret" of our current financial system is that central banks cannot create jobs, increase incomes, or even generate economic growth. All they can do is control the price of debt or credit, something that inflates asset prices, stocks and real estate, making people feel wealthier so they keep spending money. That is all. Why would this be done? Why not stop the printing of money, the devaluation of the US dollar, and allow stocks to trade based on fundamentals? Because a bull stock market is now a matter of national security. Approximately 58% of American households have exposure to the stock market. In terms of actual wealth, 45% of household wealth is invested in equities. That is, almost half of the wealth held by Americans is tied to the stock market. Only in this context, a major bear market or crisis in stocks constitutes a matter of national security in terms of economic repercussions. It is the equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon. But wait, this relationship is even deeper than most people realize. The stock market is now actually the economy itself.
The rich... richer
We are in a "K-shaped" economy, where the top 10% of incomes, or otherwise consumers, represents almost entirely consumer spending and economic growth, while the bottom 90% of incomes or consumers struggles with the increased cost of living due to inflation. The top 10% of households, meaning the people who essentially move the economy through consumption, owns over 90% of stocks. In this context, a bear stock market would cause a massive reduction in consumer spending. And given that consumption accounts for 70% of GDP, this would lead directly to a recession. This is no exaggeration. We got a taste of this during the trade war and the tariff crisis in March and April of 2025, when stocks fell by 18% within four weeks, wiping out 11 trillion dollars of wealth. During that period, many companies, from Southwest Airlines to Chipotle and PepsiCo, warned that they were seeing a reduction in consumer spending at recessionary levels. It is for this reason that policymakers, including the President and his inner circle, always intervene to support the stock market. It is why the market is manipulated both through statements and through direct injections of newly printed money by the Fed. This devaluation will force capital to direct itself into high-risk assets, such as stocks, real estate, and "hard" assets like gold. It is no coincidence that both stocks and gold have skyrocketed during the same period.
The truth of the numbers
Today, 11 American companies possess a stock market value of over 1 trillion dollars. Their total capitalization reaches 29 trillion dollars. Walmart had already entered the "1 trillion club" for a few weeks, albeit marginally, but recently retreated below this threshold. If it is added back to the list, then the 12 American companies will have a total capitalization of approximately 30 trillion dollars. This amount corresponds to approximately 43% of the total stock market value of all companies in the S&P 500 index. During the minor correction that occurred from January 28 to March 6 of this year, the total value of these 12 companies decreased by 1.8 trillion dollars. In the 58 sessions that followed, their value increased by 4.9 trillion dollars. Over the last six years, their total capitalization skyrocketed from approximately 6 trillion to 30 trillion dollars. These are returns that guide an entire generation of investors.
The case of Micron
The latest company to join the "trillion club" is Micron Technology. From its lows on April 3, 2025, its stock surged by 1,315%. Its stock market value increased from 72 billion dollars to over 1 trillion. The most impressive thing is that the second half of this journey, from 500 billion to 1 trillion, took place within just 48 sessions, a performance that constitutes a historical record. Richter characterizes the relevant chart as yet another example of the "Artificial Intelligence madness", AI Mania.
The 11 American companies of the "trillion club"
1) NVIDIA: 5.11 trillion dollars
2) Apple: 4.58 trillion dollars
3) Alphabet, Google: 4.57 trillion dollars
4) Microsoft: 3.34 trillion dollars
5) Amazon: 2.91 trillion dollars
6) Broadcom: 2.12 trillion dollars
7) Tesla: 1.64 trillion dollars
8) Meta Platforms: 1.61 trillion dollars
9) Micron Technology: 1.09 trillion dollars
10) Eli Lilly: 1.04 trillion dollars
11) Berkshire Hathaway: 1.02 trillion dollars
Walmart follows with approximately 922 billion dollars. Eli Lilly is at risk of falling below the one-trillion threshold, while Micron is also quite close to this possibility. Even an ordinary daily fluctuation could suffice. These stocks are now considered highly volatile.
30 trillion is no longer what it used to be...
Once, 30 trillion dollars was considered an inconceivable amount. Just four years ago, the total public debt of the United States amounted to approximately 30 trillion. Today it has reached 39 trillion dollars. Not because it acquired greater value, but because it continues to increase.
And other companies over 1 trillion dollars There are three more companies with a stock market value of over 1 trillion dollars, but they are not American:
1) the South Korean SK Hynix,
2) the Taiwanese Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC,
3) and the Saudi Arabian Saudi Aramco.
What will happen if there is a serious correction?
Every small drop in the total value of these 12 companies means that trillions of dollars disappear from investment portfolios. Correspondingly, every small rise creates trillions of dollars "on paper". If even a drop of the order of 20% were to occur, approximately 6 trillion dollars of stock market value would disappear. Once, 6 trillion dollars was considered a huge amount. Today it could be lost simply from the correction of twelve stocks.
Risk of recession
A classic crash of technology stocks, similar to those observed in the past after periods of excessive gains, could lead the American economy into recession. In his view, there are limits to how many trillions can be lost from the portfolios of households and businesses without affecting their economic decisions. When losses become excessively large, consumers and businesses restrict their spending and investments, slowing down economic growth.
The example of the dot-com bubble
Something similar happened during the collapse of internet companies, Dotcom Bust. One year after the start of the decline, in March 2001, the United States entered a recession. The recession lasted until November of the same year. However, the stock market collapse continued until October 2002. By then, the Nasdaq Composite index had lost approximately 78% of its value. The crisis particularly affected regions with a large concentration of technology companies, telecommunications companies, software, IT hardware, and biotechnology, such as:
1) Silicon Valley,
2) San Francisco,
3) Seattle,
4) and Boston.
In these regions, the situation resembled an economic depression rather than a simple recession. Nevertheless, much of the rest of the country was affected much less. The overall recession proved relatively mild compared to the much deeper crisis that followed a few years later, when the collapse of the real estate bubble coincided with an over-indebted and dangerously interconnected banking system. A stock market collapse is not imminent. The concentration of enormous value in just 11 to 12 companies has reached historically extreme levels. If these companies undergo a serious correction, the loss of wealth will be so great that it may affect consumption, investments, and ultimately the growth of the American economy. The comparison he makes is mainly with the technology company bubble of 2000, although he recognizes that today's technology giants are much more profitable and powerful than most companies of the dot-com era.
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