With an economy reeling under the weight of decades of sanctions, a currency in freefall, and an air force belonging to past decades, many would assume that Iran is an "easy target." However, the reality is diametrically opposite, as behind the image of a weakened power hides an asymmetric nightmare that forces even the US and Israel to have second thoughts. During the 12-day war in June 2025, Israel maintained complete air superiority over Iranian territory. Iran lacks a significant air force, and its anti-aircraft defense systems were systematically weakened by Israeli airstrikes. Israel also decapitated the Iranian military leadership, neutralizing top generals with targeted strikes. Furthermore, one of Tehran's key negotiating levers, its regional influence networks—namely the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah—have been weakened, while its most stable regional ally, Syria's Bashar al-Assad, has fled the country and lives in exile in Russia. Moscow, meanwhile, is fully absorbed in the war in Ukraine, essentially leaving Tehran without friends, with the sole exception of China, which is estimated to limit itself to diplomatic and some economic support in the event of a military conflict. Israel argues that Iran is at its weakest point and is ripe for a regime change operation with external military support.
Military analysts warn the US
On the other side stands the combined power of Israel and the US, supported by a network of strategic allies: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Bahrain, as well as nearly 18 American military bases. The US has also deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and has rushed to reinforce the region with fighter jets, guided-missile destroyers, and the most advanced anti-aircraft defense systems. Yet, military analysts warn Washington to avoid an adventure in the Persian Gulf. William Hartung, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that Iran could evolve into another Iraq War for the US. "It reminds me of the beginning of the Iraq War, when they said it would be a cakewalk. That it would cost nothing. It ended up costing a few trillion dollars, hundreds of thousands of casualties, many American veterans returned with PTSD, a sectarian regime that paved the way for ISIS. It couldn't have gone worse. The beginning here is different, but the end is uncertain and I don't think we want to go there." Georg Spöttle, a Hungarian security analyst, warned that the US might choose a "warning airstrike" but must avoid a long-term war that the American public "will not accept."
The question is why, despite the disproportionate difference in military capabilities, an economy on life support, and a deeply unpopular regime, Tehran remains a serious challenge for the US-Israel axis. In reality, a combination of geographical, geopolitical, and military factors makes Tehran a power that must be taken seriously.
Geographical factors favoring Iran
Iran is located in immediate proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage vital for global oil supplies. The energy needs of nearly one-fifth of the world's population pass through the Strait. In the event of a military conflict, Iran could impose the closure of the Strait, a threat repeated for years by Iranian political and military authorities. The closure could be achieved through the use of mines, cruise missiles, coastal defense systems, and speedboats. At the same time, countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq also depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil and gas exports. The vulnerability of the Strait is a key reason why regional partners of the US oppose military intervention against Iran. Iran could also destabilize the Red Sea shipping lanes through the Houthis. This would affect global trade and energy security, involving the entire world in the conflict.
Iran's military arsenal
The most significant military advantage of Iran is its capabilities in missiles and drones. Specifically, it possesses a powerful arsenal of ballistic and even hypersonic missiles, as well as lethal long-range drones. During the 12-day war with Israel, Tehran launched over 500 missiles, several of which broke through advanced multi-layered Israeli air defense systems and struck Israeli territory. It could also strike US bases in the region, where over 40,000 American soldiers are stationed across approximately 18 bases. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reports that Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles ranging from a few hundred to 2,000–2,500 kilometers.
Many of these systems can strike Israel and parts of southeastern Europe. Most American bases in the region are within range. Before the 2025 war, the Iranian ballistic missile stockpile was estimated at 2,500 to 3,000. More than 500 were used in the war, but production increased afterward. Iran has also upgraded its missiles, reducing launch preparation time and improving accuracy. Systems considered a threat include the Shahab-3, Kheibar Shekan, Fattah 1 and 2, Sejjil, and Khorramshahr, with warheads ranging from 500 to 1,500 kilograms of explosives, according to Iranian reports. It also possesses cruise missiles like the Kh-55 and anti-ship missiles like the Khalid Farzh, as well as thousands of Shahed-type drones and the Mohajer series. The IISS notes that Iran's missile forces offset its weak air force, allowing for long-range strikes. In the naval field, Iran relies on an asymmetric strategy in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz with two branches: the IRIN and the IRGCN. It uses speedboats, submarines, and drones. The fleet includes modern destroyers like the Zulfiqar, Sahand, and Zagros, Alphand and Moj-class frigates, as well as 27 submarines, including three Tareq-class (Kilo-class), two Fateh-class, and 23 Ghadir-class. In the narrow waters of Hormuz, Iran could utilize asymmetric tactics to outmaneuver larger and slower warships. It is worth noting that in March 2025, the US launched Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis in Yemen. Despite their limited navy, the Houthis managed to destabilize Red Sea shipping routes. The operation lasted three months, cost over $1 billion, and the US lost two F/A-18 Hornets and seven MQ-9 drones without managing to subdue the Houthis.
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