Lockheed Martin's flagship product, the F-35 Lightning II, is facing an unexpected threat. This is because US President Donald Trump's tariff policy has dealt a serious blow to the sales of the American fighter jet.
Trump aggressively promotes the slogan "Make America Great Again" as well as American military equipment. However, if Lockheed Martin believed this would mean more F-35 sales, a nasty surprise awaited them. Instead of more sales, the company is struggling even to maintain orders that had already been signed before Trump's return to the White House last January.
The... demonstration in Israel
The wave of cancellations and revisions of existing orders adds to the long list of problems for the F-35, which is already facing rising costs, delays in the TR-3 upgrade, engine modernization failures, and inflated maintenance expenses. Lockheed Martin desperately needs new sales to cover the cost of the F-35 program, which, at $2 trillion, is already one of the most expensive fighter programs in history.
However, in a "deadly cocktail" of Trump's tariffs, threats to friendly countries—such as his statement that he would make Canada the 51st US state or that he would compel Denmark to hand over Greenland—his unpredictable negotiating style, and general unreliability, the chances of increasing F-35 sales in the near future, or even maintaining the existing order book, are minimal.
And all this, despite Israel showing the world the capabilities of the F-35 during its 12-day war with Iran last June. The Israeli F-35I Adir regularly bombed Iranian military targets. They executed numerous dangerous missions in Iran's heavily defended airspace and achieved their results without any losses. Even in the B-2 bombings, F-35s, along with F-22 Raptors, led the operations: they moved ahead of the B-2s, undertaking air superiority and Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD/DEAD) missions, clearing the way for safe and effective action by the B-2s.
Despite this triumphant demonstration, at least three countries have canceled their pre-existing F-35 orders in 2025, one has "frozen" its order, and one rejected the F-35 even when it was offered.
New customer Saudi Arabia
In total, Lockheed Martin has lost 150 potential F-35 sales and is still uncertain about another 72. In exchange, it has gained one new customer: Saudi Arabia. Although, in reality, it is an open secret that the Saudis had been interested in buying the stealth fighter for years. Trump merely gave the green light to their long-standing request. However, even here the deal is far from being finalized, as it requires Congressional approval.
Israel is strongly opposed to the deal. International human rights organizations criticize it, and there are even reactions in Australia. It remains to be seen how the potential sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia will unfold.
Wave of F-35 cancellations in 2025
Portugal: In March, Portugal canceled plans to purchase up to 36 F-35s to replace its aging F-16s. The Portuguese Air Force had recommended the purchase of F-35s, but the government canceled the deal. Outgoing Defense Minister Nuno Melo stated that Portugal "cannot ignore the geopolitical environment." The unpredictable stance of the US within NATO, he said, "must make us reflect on our choices." Melo cited Trump's unreliability, US restrictions on the use of the F-35, and the need to bolster European defense production as key reasons. Politico characterized the cancellation as "one of the first examples of the American president undermining a potentially lucrative defense deal." Portugal is now considering European fighter jets: Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Gripen.
Switzerland: In July, Trump's tariffs almost canceled the 2022 deal for 36 F-35s. Trump imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss products (watches, coffee capsules), causing outrage in the Swiss Parliament. "A country that throws stones at us in trade should not receive a gift," said Green MP Balthasar Glättli. The deal has not been canceled, but the price is being renegotiated.
Spain: In August, Spain canceled its intention to spend €6.25 billion on 45–50 F-35A and 12–15 F-35B to replace the Harrier II and Hornet. Madrid is considering European solutions: Eurofighter or the future FCAS. This decision came after the public dispute between Madrid and Trump over the latter's insistence that all NATO countries reach 5% of their GDP for defense (Spain aims for 2%).
India: Trump offered the F-35 to India, which is urgently seeking fighter jets due to the reduction of its squadrons. After the four-day war with Pakistan in May, there were reports that China is providing Pakistan with the new stealth J-35A. India is considering the Russian Su-57 as a potential fifth-generation fighter. The 50% tariffs imposed by Trump on India essentially excluded the F-35 from the competition.
Canada: The most significant agreement under review is Canada. In 2023, the Trudeau government approved a US$50 billion deal for 88 F-35s. The new government is re-examining whether the fleet now covers the country's defense needs, taking into account the new geopolitical reality. Sweden is attempting an intense "counter-attack" to sell the Gripen. Saab promises a production line in Canada and 10,000 jobs. Even King Carl XVI Gustaf is conducting an official visit, which analysts consider a "sweet charm offensive" in favor of the Gripen. If Canada cancels the remaining 72 aircraft, it will be the biggest loss for the F-35 program—and it will directly bear the Trump stamp.
In total, Trump's tariffs could eliminate F-35 orders worth over $100 billion.
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