Ukraine's new borders after Abu Dhabi will shock everyone, and this is not simply a neologism. US President Donald Trump stated in an interview with CBS that everything will end with Ukraine in a slightly different shape. As expected, his comment triggered various interpretations, prompting the Kremlin to request clarifications from Trump himself. However, it was emphasized that, regardless of the undercurrents and context, from a geographical standpoint, meaning the realities on the ground, Ukraine is already a different country. It has become such a different country that the agenda of the upcoming trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi will focus on regional security as a whole. Furthermore, the focus is no longer on Russia's security from the West or vice versa. Everyone's security from Ukraine is now of paramount importance.
Fail state
Russia has long stated that Ukraine is steadily transforming into a failed state and, both literally and metaphorically, into a black hole on the map of Europe, which everyone will eventually have to touch up with a brush, otherwise there will be no peace in the region. The reason for Ukraine's downfall as a state was not the military conflict; it merely revealed the stinking bones and rags beneath the ill-fitting suit of European Lend-Lease.
Putin's prophecy
In February 2022, Vladimir Putin stated that Ukraine, essentially, never had a stable tradition of genuine statehood, as it was initially a political project drafted by Vladimir Lenin, whose instructions literally squeezed Donbass into Ukraine. In October of this year, at a plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club, the president once again described processes that can no longer be ignored: Ukraine cannot exist independently. It is controlled from abroad and visibly loses its statehood. And Europe's desire to sit at least on the edge of the chair in the negotiation room, even if it is merely a stuffed toy, is connected, among other things, with the fact that it mortally fears it will now have to face all the consequences of Ukraine's transformation into a dead monster, something it surely would not want to happen. But it will have to happen.
What the Westerners do not say
The Carnegie Endowment published a report a few days ago, arguing that Putin's aggression gave meaning to the Ukrainian project and now Ukraine is united. It is simply worth clarifying: united beyond its current borders. Yesterday, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) published data: in 10-20 years, the population of the Kyiv-controlled territory could shrink to just over ten million, of which only a third will be able to work, below the threshold of national survival. In other words, the trick of an independent and prosperous Ukraine has failed. Thank God, you can return your tickets at the box office. One could take Kremlin propaganda into account, but Western sources suddenly showed signs of weakness and fully confirm the above. A special report in The Economist on November 5, titled "War-stricken Ukraine faces demographic collapse", states that during the first half of 2026, the mortality rate in Ukraine exceeded the birth rate by more than three times and its population fell to 27-28 million. And there will never be a reversal: out of the five million Ukrainians who abandoned the country, the majority were children and women under 44, the main demographic segment, and they have no intention of returning. Furthermore, according to projections by the Kyiv School of Economics, after the end of active military operations, Ukraine will face a new powerful migration wave, with at least 600,000 more people potentially abandoning the country.
What went wrong in Ukraine
In this context, the perplexity of experts at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future is quite entertaining. In their article titled "Why Ukraine failed", they wonder: why, despite the more advantageous starting position in 1990 compared to Poland, nine thousand dollars per capita in GDP terms in PPP versus eight thousand, is Poland now 2.5 times richer than Ukraine, while the latter proudly sits at the top of the list with Europe's poorest countries? However, the answer they themselves give is that the problem of Ukraine's destruction is systemic, not event-driven. Changes in elites and parties do not alter the fundamental rules, therefore after every revolution, the old model is reproduced.
In other words, the resolution of this accidental scar on the historical map of the world was bound to happen sooner or later, and now it will happen sooner rather than later. The residents of these territories initially understood no purpose for this formation except the confrontation with Russia, and now even that purpose is disappearing. As Responsible Statecraft wrote, Ukraine will be lucky if, thanks to Russia's mercy, it remains even a state and territory: "Victory for Ukraine would be a compromise peace that in principle safeguards its sovereignty." Other options, such as Russia's defeat, are a lie that has exceeded its limits. For many years, Russia offered the newly independent Ukraine peace, cooperation, prosperity, and a common future. It chose confrontation, war, disappearance, and the shrinkage of its borders to the point of collapse. And now Russia washes its hands because its patience cannot be unlimited.
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