Poland boils against Donald Tusk: Upheaval brews as right-wing parties gain ground

Significant erosion is recorded for the government of Donald Tusk in Poland, as nearly one in two citizens now demands his departure from the premiership, in the wake of the dramatic takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal by government forces, with the participation of police riot control units.
According to the first opinion poll conducted after the events at the Constitutional Tribunal, 47.4% of Poles consider that Donald Tusk should not continue exercising the duties of prime minister.
Conversely, 38.3% desire his retention in power, while 14.3% do not express a specific opinion.
At the same time, a second poll records a significant retreat by the ruling coalition and shows that, if elections were held today, Donald Tusk could lose power, paving the way for the formation of a government with the participation of right-wing and nationalist political forces.

Political crisis in Poland after the takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal

The opinion poll by Wprost captures the serious political crisis that has erupted in Poland following the intervention at the Constitutional Tribunal.
The confrontation centers on moves by judges elected by the parliamentary majority, who proceeded to suspend the duties of the president and vice president of the Tribunal, lower the required quorum for decision-making, and assume control of the institution's operations.
A particularly serious dimension is assumed by the fact that one of the judges participating in these specific moves had not previously been sworn in before the President of the Republic, Karol Nawrocki, as prescribed by the Polish Constitution.
This development has provoked fierce backlash from the opposition, which accuses the Tusk government of institutional deviation and unlawful interference in the administration of Justice.

Poll: Donald Tusk's party loses ground, right-wing forces strengthen

Even more alarming for Donald Tusk are the findings of the poll by United Surveys by IBRiS on behalf of Wirtualna Polska, which was conducted on November 2, a few days after the events at the Constitutional Tribunal.
The governing Civic Coalition (KO) continues to lead, yet it records a significant drop, gathering 27.2%, down by 2.5 percentage points compared to the company's previous measurement.
Conversely, the party Law and Justice (PiS) strengthens to 18.2%, recording an increase of one percentage point.
Particularly significant is the strengthening of right-wing political forces, with Confederation securing 13.3%, while the party Confederation of the Polish Crown of Grzegorz Braun records 11.6%.
The Left follows with 7.1% and Rozwój Plus with 5.2%.
These figures demonstrate that the political crisis is not confined to the erosion of the government, but is accompanied by a realignment of political power dynamics, with right-wing forces bolstering their standing.

The arithmetic of power: How Tusk can lose the government

The estimated distribution of parliamentary seats presents particular interest, as it captures the prospective consequences of the polling findings.
According to projections, in the event that these figures were confirmed at the ballot box, the distribution of the 460 seats of the Polish Parliament (Sejm) would shape up as follows:
Civic Coalition (KO): 172 seats.
Law and Justice (PiS): 108 seats.
Confederation: 73 seats.
Confederation of the Polish Crown of Grzegorz Braun: 61 seats.
The Left: 30 seats.
Rozwój Plus: 16 seats.
The most significant element is that current governing partners, namely Civic Coalition and The Left, would be limited to a combined 202 seats.
This represents a number significantly lower than the 231 seats required to secure a parliamentary majority.
Conversely, right-wing political forces could numerically assemble 242 seats, creating the conditions for the formation of a new government.
However, such an outcome would presuppose the participation of the party of Grzegorz Braun, as without it a parliamentary majority does not take shape.
Although such cooperation is not considered a foregone conclusion, political analysts estimate that right-wing forces may seek some form of alliance once the practical question of assuming governance arises.

The Kaczyński-Braun photograph and right-wing alliance scenarios

The joint appearance of Grzegorz Braun alongside the head of PiS, Jarosław Kaczyński, outside the Constitutional Tribunal during protests against governmental actions, is considered indicative of political processes underway.
The shared photograph of the two political figures was interpreted as a sign of potential rapprochement and readiness for a future political alliance.
This prospect assumes particular significance, as polling arithmetic demonstrates that the participation of Braun's party could prove decisive in ousting the current government.
The United Surveys poll was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviews with a sample of 1,000 adults, with a margin of statistical error of 3 percentage points. Concurrently, the proportion of undecided voters rose to 10.7%.

Donald Tusk: Cites restoration of legality, accuses opponents

For his part, Donald Tusk maintains that his government's actions were necessary in order to restore the «legality» of the Constitutional Tribunal, following years of PiS influence.
At the same time, he accuses President Karol Nawrocki and conservative political forces of obstructing judicial reforms.
In a speech on October 31, the Polish prime minister leveled sharp criticism at the President of the Republic, PiS, and the protesters gathered outside the Tribunal.
As he argued, a democratic state «must be strong and capable of enforcing Justice».
Indeed, Donald Tusk claimed that forces opposing his government are supported by Russia, ratcheting up political tension even further.
The European Union has also sided with Donald Tusk, having refused, according to the report, to condemn the takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal, despite accusations regarding the violation of the Polish Constitution.

Karol Nawrocki: Intervention in the Tribunal is an illegal power grab

On the other side, Karol Nawrocki, who systematically emerges as the most popular politician in Poland in opinion polls, has denounced the intervention in the Constitutional Tribunal as an illegal attempt at usurping power.
The stance of the President of the Republic amplifies political conflict with the government, as the crisis has now shifted from the operational level of the judiciary to the broader arena of constitutional and political legitimacy.
Indeed, certain right-wing politicians have warned that officials of the Tusk administration could face arrest, should right-wing forces return to power.
The primary conclusion of the polls is that the crisis at the Constitutional Tribunal appears to have further burdened the political position of Donald Tusk, looking ahead to the parliamentary elections of 2027.
If current trends persist, Poland may be headed toward a major political upset, with right-wing forces acquiring the ability to form a government and Donald Tusk risking the loss of power.

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