BN poll causes earthquake: ND at 24.1%, Kasidiaris at 8%, Samaras surprises at 7% - 72% of Greeks favor Russia

Shock and awe are sparked by the pan-hellenic opinion poll conducted by independent researcher and statistician Nikolaos Kardoulas on behalf of Bankingnews.gr. The poll featured a sample of 7,198 individuals of all ages and was executed using a structured questionnaire via text messages and social media. The sample offers clear objectivity and reliability while undecided voters are restricted to a very small percentage of 3.4%. The most significant qualitative elements of the poll indicate that New Democracy in vote estimation moves at 24.1%, meaning it secures 78 MPs—thus failing to secure the seat bonus—while the 4th party emerging is Symmachia Ellinon supported by Ilias Kasidiaris at 8% and 26 MPs, the Samaras party stands at 7% and 23 seats, the Voice of Reason party at 5.7% and 19 seats, whereas the next Parliament is recorded as a 10-party one. Parties further to the right of ND accumulate approximately 31% in voting intention. Only 53% of those who voted for New Democracy in 2023 are supporting it again, which implies that roughly half of the voters have left New Democracy and are moving further right. Equally interesting for the appeal of right-wing parties are the separate surveys in Greece's two most populous regions, Attica and Central Macedonia. In special questionnaires, an overwhelming 72.5% oppose severing ties with Russia, regarding honesty among politicians from the Patriotic Right, Samaras, Latinopoulou, and Kasidiaris capture the top 3 spots, while cumulatively 80.5% of respondents believe that the developing Samaras party will damage New Democracy.

The entire poll is as follows:

Nationwide voting intention poll

Only 53% of New Democracy voters from June 2023 are voting for New Democracy again, while New Democracy exhibits a sharp drop of 41% compared to the June 2023 national elections where it had received 40.6% and today in vote estimation receives 24.1%. Based on the statistical error, New Democracy moves marginally around 25%, a percentage constituting a criterion to secure the seat bonus if surpassed. In voting intention, New Democracy leads with 23.6%, followed by ELAS with 13.7% with a 9.9 percentage point difference from New Democracy, the third party is PASOK with 11%, and the fourth party is Symmachia Ellinon with 7.7%. Parties further to the right of New Democracy accumulate approximately 31% in voting intention.

Nationwide voting intention if national elections were held today

In voting intention, New Democracy leads with 23.6%, followed by ELAS with 13.7%, PASOK with 11%, Symmachia Ellinon with 7.7%, KKE with 7.1%, the Samaras party with 6.8%, Greek Solution with 6.0%, Voice of Reason with 5.5%, Elpida with 4.1%, Course of Freedom with 3.7%, MeRA25 with 2.6%, SYRIZA with 1.5%, Democrats with 0.8%, NIKI with 0.6%, another Party with 1.9%, and undecided voters with 3.4%.

Vote estimation and seats of the 10 parties entering Parliament if national elections were held today

For vote estimation, the redistribution of the 3.4% of undecided voters was conducted using the successfully tested 95% undecided mathematical model by Nikos Kardoulas. In vote estimation, New Democracy leads with 24.1%, followed by ELAS with 14.2%, PASOK with 11.5%, Symmachia Ellinon with 8%, KKE with 7.3%, the Samaras party with 7%, Greek Solution with 6.3%, Voice of Reason with 5.7%, Elpida with 4.2%, and Course of Freedom with 3.8%, and these would be the ten parties entering Parliament if elections were held today. They are followed by MeRA25 with 2.7%, SYRIZA with 1.6%, Democrats with 0.9%, NIKI with 0.7%, and another Party with 2%. If elections were held today, New Democracy would receive 78 seats in Parliament, ELAS 46, PASOK 37, Symmachia Ellinon 26, KKE 24, the Samaras party 23, Greek Solution 21, Voice of Reason 19, Elpida 14, and Course of Freedom 12 seats, whereas government formation would constitute more of a crossword puzzle for very capable solvers rather than a clean result yielding a stable government.

What June 2023 voters of New Democracy, SYRIZA, and PASOK and non-voters in June 2023 vote today

Only 53.1% of June 2023 New Democracy voters are voting for New Democracy again, with New Democracy's largest losses observed toward the Samaras party (11.7%), Voice of Reason (7.6%), Greek Solution (4.8%), Symmachia Ellinon, and ELAS (both at 4%). June 2023 SYRIZA voters primarily vote today for ELAS (54.7%), PASOK (8.7%), and SYRIZA (6.7%). June 2023 PASOK voters primarily vote today for PASOK (63.4%), ELAS (12.6%), and New Democracy (7.1%). Those who did not vote in June 2023 primarily vote today for Symmachia Ellinon (15.7%), New Democracy (14.7%), are undecided (14.6%), and ELAS (10.1%).

Origin of ELAS, Symmachia Ellinon, Samaras party, Elpida, Voice of Reason, and undecided voters relative to the vote in the June 2023 national elections

ELAS voters primarily originate from SYRIZA (66.1%), New Democracy (11.4%), and PASOK (11%). Symmachia Ellinon voters primarily originate from Spartiates (41%), New Democracy (21.1%), and those who did not vote in 2023 (13.2%). Voters of the developing Samaras party primarily originate from New Democracy (68.7%), NIKI (6.5%), another party, and PASOK (both at 5.1%). Elpida voters primarily originate from New Democracy (20.4%), those who did not vote in 2023 (14.6%), another party (13.1%), SYRIZA (10.9%), and NIKI (10.2%). Voice of Reason voters primarily originate from New Democracy (55.5%), Voice of Reason (16.1%), and Greek Solution (6.6%). Finally, the 3.4% of undecided voters primarily originate from New Democracy (41.8%), those who did not vote in 2023 (28.7%), another party, and PASOK (both at 6.6%).

Voting intention by age group

For the age groups that participated in the survey, the following is observed:
• 17 - 24: Symmachia Ellinon leads with 19.5% followed by New Democracy with 18.7% and Voice of Reason with 15.1%.
• 25 - 34: New Democracy leads with 16.2% followed by Symmachia Ellinon with 14.6%, Voice of Reason with 12.3% and PASOK with 12.1%.
• 35 - 44: New Democracy leads with 18.3% followed by ELAS with 12.9% and PASOK with 12.7%.
• 45 - 54: New Democracy leads with 25.8% followed by ELAS with 11.8% and PASOK with 11.1%.
• 55 - 64: New Democracy leads with 25.4% followed by ELAS with 17.3% and PASOK with 8.6%.
• 65+: New Democracy leads with 28.5% followed by ELAS with 18.1% and PASOK with 11.5%.

Voting intention by occupational group

For the occupational groups that participated in the survey, the following is observed:
• Self-employed: New Democracy leads with 26.4% followed by PASOK with 12.7% and the Samaras party with 10.5%.
• Private sector employees: New Democracy leads with 21.4% followed by ELAS with 14.5% and Symmachia Ellinon with 10.2%.
• Public sector employees: New Democracy leads with 23.5% followed by ELAS with 17.4% and PASOK with 11.9%.
• Farmers: New Democracy leads with 23.6% followed by PASOK with 12.1%, ELAS with 10.5% and Greek Solution with 10.4%.
• Pensioners: New Democracy leads with 27.1% followed by ELAS with 18.4% and PASOK with 12.1%.
• Homemakers: New Democracy leads with 22.8% followed by Course of Freedom with 10.5%, Elpida with 10.1% and Greek Solution with 10%.
• Students: Symmachia Ellinon leads with 21.3% followed by Voice of Reason with 18.2%, PASOK with 13.8% and New Democracy with 13.5%.
• Unemployed: Symmachia Ellinon leads with 18.2% followed by New Democracy with 17.2%, PASOK with 9.2% and Course of Freedom with 9.1%.

Voting intention by gender

Among men, New Democracy leads with 26% followed by ELAS with 13.9% and PASOK with 12%. Among women, New Democracy leads with 21.2% followed by ELAS with 13.5% and PASOK with 10%.

SPECIAL QUESTIONNAIRES:

Citizens' opinion on whether severing ties with Russia benefited Greece

72.5% of citizens consider that severing ties with Russia did not benefit Greece, 15.4% that it benefited, whereas 12.1% do not know or do not answer.

Citizens' opinion on which Patriotic Right politician is the most honest

The most honest politician of the Patriotic Right according to citizens' responses is Antonis Samaras with 13.5% followed by Afroditi Latinopoulou with 11.3%, Ilias Kasidiaris with 10.8%, Maria Karystianou with 10.4%, Kyriakos Velopoulos with 6.4%, Dimitris Natsios with 5.5% and Nikos Papadopoulos with 1.6%, while 40.5% do not know or do not answer.

Citizens' opinion on how much damage Antonis Samaras' developing party will cause New Democracy

36.8% of citizens consider that Antonis Samaras' developing party will cause quite a bit of damage to New Democracy, 25.9% that it will cause a little damage, 17.8% that it will cause a lot of damage and 13.3% that it will cause no damage, whereas 6.2% do not know or do not answer.

Voting intention in the Attica Region

In voting intention in the Attica Region, New Democracy leads with 23% followed by ELAS with 13.9%, Symmachia Ellinon with 9%, PASOK with 8.8%, the Samaras party with 8.6%, KKE with 7.8%, Voice of Reason with 4.9%, Greek Solution with 4.5%, Course of Freedom with 4%, Elpida with 3.4%, MeRA25 with 3.2%, SYRIZA with 1.6%, Democrats with 0.8%, NIKI with 0.4%, another Party with 2.1% and undecided voters with 4%.

Voting intention in the Central Macedonia Region

In voting intention in the Central Macedonia Region, New Democracy leads with 23.2% followed by ELAS with 11.4%, Greek Solution with 9.8%, PASOK with 9.5%, Voice of Reason with 7.6%, Symmachia Ellinon with 7.2%, KKE with 6%, the Samaras party with 5.8%, Elpida with 5.1%, Course of Freedom with 4.5%, MeRA25 with 2.8%, SYRIZA with 1.3%, NIKI with 1%, Democrats with 0.9%, another party with 1.6% and undecided voters with 2.3%.

Researcher's comments

New Democracy may be the first party, but it cannot form a self-sustaining government. A fragmentation of the political landscape is observed, resulting in the next Parliament appearing unpredictable and complex, where government formation is projected to be fragile and difficult, featuring secret negotiations, programmatic agreements out of necessity, and governments that will be judged directly by citizens, and all coalition scenarios may be possible. Difficult party collaborations become almost inevitable and the question is whether the political system can cooperate for government formation or if we will be led into an environment of uncertainty, ungovernability, and political bargaining. The big question of national elections, whenever they take place, is not merely which party will be first, but with which parties and program it will co-govern, with what social trust and legitimacy, with what concessions, and at what price.

Survey identity - Methodology

The survey was addressed via a structured questionnaire with SMS to randomly sampled mobile phones and to Facebook and Instagram users over 17 years of age in Greece via sponsored advertising, from October 31 through November 2 and 7,198 individuals participated in it. The survey structure and the collection and analysis of data were carried out using the method of statistician and political analyst Nikos Kardoulas, which whenever used in elections had a 95% success rate. A total of five weightings were performed on the primary data, based on professional and age groups, gender, Region, and the vote in the June 2023 national elections (past vote), so that the sample of 7,198 individuals is weighted. The statistical error of the present survey is ±1.5% for a 99% confidence interval.

EDITED BY: Sotiris Pikoulas

sotirispikoulas@gmail.com

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