A coup attempt was foiled in Kazakhstan.
This time, the situation was addressed without requiring the deployment of troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), as had occurred in January 2022.
At that time, following a request by the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and on the occasion of mass protests that escalated into armed clashes between demonstrators and government forces, the intervention of the country's allies was deemed necessary.
This time, however, the authorities of Kazakhstan handled the situation without external assistance.
It is difficult, nonetheless, to draw definitive conclusions based on the information available so far.
The National Security Committee (KNB) announced that a coup attempt was foiled in the western part of the country.
In connection with the case, ten individuals were arrested in the city of Atyrau.
Those arrested were allegedly planning the violent overthrow of the constitutional order.
They face charges related to establishing and directing an extremist organization, participating in its activities, propaganda in favor of terrorism, and inciting religious hatred.
Who is behind the coup attempt?
Were there plans to remove Tokayev from power?
Why is Astana in the crosshairs of the conspirators?
Particularly oil-rich region
According to the Doctor of History and political scientist, Sergey Stankevich, «western Kazakhstan is an exceptionally oil-rich region, from which originates the largest share of the country's significant production and exports.
An environment dominated by major financial interests has formed in the region.
Oil is always linked to politics, therefore this specific business environment inevitably carries a strong political dimension as well.
Criminal groups also frequently operate in the area, integrating into this broader nexus of interests.
However, the most interesting element is that the headquarters of many international companies are located in western Kazakhstan, several of which operate in dual-use sectors.
In these, according to my assessment, Western intelligence services have frequently infiltrated.
It is, consequently, important to investigate the potential links of the conspirators with foreign interests.
This issue carries particular importance for Russia as well, as Kazakhstan is the country with which it shares its longest terrestrial border».
On October 19, the President of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, revealed that he held a telephone conversation with former banker Mukhtar Ablyazov.
According to the President of Kyrgyzstan, Ablyazov had proposed that he organize a revolution in neighboring Kazakhstan.
What was the real reason behind this proposal: are financial interests attempting to seize power in Kazakhstan and install persons of their choice in government, or is this about rivalries between clan groups?
The political analyst considers that both apply.
He explained that the «foot soldiers» of the last coup attempt in Kazakhstan, in 2022, were members of an underground Islamist network.
He added that numerous circles and Islamic schools were active, creating fertile ground for the conspirators, who were backed by financial interests seeking to gain access to power.
Stankevich stated that the political system of Kazakhstan appeared quite robust at the time.
He noted that Tokayev is attempting to build a modern society, without resorting to methods and mindsets of past centuries, and that Kazakhstan aspires to play a leading role in Eurasia.
He emphasized that it is a modern society, free of religious prejudices, and for this reason he considers it natural that this direction causes discontent among reactionary conservative circles.
He added that opposition groups struggled to compete with Tokayev on the level of concrete policy proposals, resulting in them ultimately seeking to undermine the government from within.
It should be noted that historical grievances, nationalist slogans, and ethno-religious issues are intertwined in this case, while the interests of kinship and clan groups that had been sidelined from both power and major economic interests may also have been at stake.
At the same time, the analyst did not rule out the possibility of instigation by foreign intelligence agencies, explaining that many in the West resent the close ties between the leaders of Russia and Kazakhstan, which they are unable to influence.
He also stated that because Tokayev studied in the Soviet Union and represented his country as a diplomat, many in the West associate him with Russia, something that cannot be forgiven, even if he pursues a multi-vector foreign policy.
In any case, the fact that the coup attempt was thwarted at an early stage proves that Tokayev retains full control of the situation in the country and that security forces stand firmly by his side.
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