The telephone communication of Vladimir Putin with the president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, and the prime minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, has triggered a genuine earthquake across Europe.
And the seismic tremors are growing even stronger from interventions by the US toward the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) urging them to tone down their rhetoric regarding the Russian threat.
It is evident that the deal between Putin and Trump over Russian diesel has altered geopolitical balances.
The US is now pressing for a resolution to the Ukrainian issue, with Europeans in absolute panic.
Reports note that Europeans dread the scenario of remaining excluded from negotiations for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, at a juncture when it is acknowledged that even nations such as Germany have grown exhausted by ongoing demands from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for weapons and funding...
Many analysts assess that the hour of humiliation for Europe is nearing...
Nevertheless, Russia makes it known that Putin is ready to pick up the phone if called by Emmanuel Macron or Friedrich Merz, as officials state the Russian president is open to dialogue...
Besides, developments from the front line bolster his position: the Russian military is positioned just 13 kilometers from the city of Sumy, Kharkiv remains a target, while scenarios of renewed fierce clashes in Kherson gain momentum.
Putin ready for Merz, Macron
President of Russia Vladimir Putin is prepared to hold telephone conversations with both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, maintained Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in commentary on the Telegram channel «Yunashev Live».
A journalist asked the Kremlin spokesperson how Putin would react if phoned by Macron or Merz.
«He would pick up the phone again. He is open to dialogue with everyone», replied Peskov.
When asked whether Putin would speak with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, should he call, Peskov answered: «So far, no one has called».
Berlin exhausted with Zelensky
Fatigue is intensifying in Germany over continuous demands from Volodymyr Zelensky for the granting of new aid packages to Ukraine, writes Berliner Zeitung.
«For four and a half years, Germans have been watching almost the same scene: Zelensky, dressed in khaki or black, appears before parliament, at conferences, or via videoconference, almost always with the same plea: more weapons and more money», the article notes.
As the newspaper highlights, in September the Ukrainian leadership requested an additional 27 billion dollars, while the European Union intends to disburse ahead of schedule the second tranche of a 90-billion loan.
And while this formerly appeared as a call for assistance, today many view the situation as an established practice repeated systematically.
At the same time, as Berliner Zeitung points out, the population of Germany has shouldered an increasing financial burden since the onset of the conflict.
Electricity, natural gas, and food prices have spiked drastically, while inflation reached record levels.
Germany has been in a state of generalized economic stagnation for several years.
The economy of the country faces recession, stemming among other things from elevated energy prices caused by the halt of Russian natural gas supplies.
The first phone call, the first fracture
The first crack in European policy was registered on October 27, when Alexander Stubb and Jonas Gahr Støre held a telephone conversation with Putin.
According to the office of the Finnish president, the Ukrainian issue and the upcoming negotiations in Abu Dhabi were discussed.
For its part, the Kremlin reported that Putin presented his assessment of the current situation in the Ukrainian conflict zone and underscored the need to achieve lasting peace.
Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen criticized this telephone contact.
She stated that the conversation had not been coordinated with any country in the European Union.
Concurrently, Foreign Minister of Estonia Margus Tsahkna, commenting on the call, stressed that «every contact» between Europe and Russia must convey the message of «unity» of the European Union and the «resolve» of Europeans to «support Ukraine and maintain pressure on Russia».
Europe sidelined
Anxiety is intensifying in Europe due to its exclusion from negotiations regarding the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, emphasize the Financial Times (FT).
According to the report, no unified stance exists among European countries regarding how they could secure participation in the negotiating process.
The situation is rendered particularly complex as US President Donald Trump steps up pressure on Kyiv to force it into concluding an agreement with Moscow.
Ahead of negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi, European governments fear decisions may be taken in their absence, which could carry grave consequences for their own security.
What the Kremlin says
Commenting on this report, the Kremlin through spokesperson Dmitry Peskov argued that European participation in negotiations over settling the Ukrainian conflict may become necessary at some stage, yet no substantive discussions on this specific topic have taken place so far.
«Negotiations for settling the conflict in Ukraine will take place in a trilateral format, with the participation of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine.
At some stage, yes, European involvement will be needed, but so far no one has substantively discussed the matter», noted Peskov.
The dilemma
According to diplomats and officials, such piecemeal efforts to restore contacts, alongside the negative backlash that followed, highlight the dilemma confronting Europe: how it can most effectively convey the interests of the continent to Putin and Trump.
«Before discussing the choice of representative, we must first secure a seat at the negotiating table.
Putin does not want to include us.
He wants to speak with Trump, so as to corner Zelensky in that manner.
At the same time, Putin clearly wants us to be the ones persistently begging to participate», stated a senior European diplomat.
Preparing the E3
Four European diplomats reported that the US and Ukraine are examining the so-called «E3 group», comprising the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, as the likeliest format for European representation in conflict settlement negotiations.
However, according to diplomats, if the three largest European powers undertake to represent the entire continent, this may provoke resentment among smaller European nations.
The most unexpected advance
Over the past twenty-four hours, news for Russia proved exceptionally optimistic from the front line, especially from the area of responsibility of military group «North».
Russian media report an unexpected advance that military experts from both sides of the front could neither anticipate nor deem probable.
«From Mohrytsia, soldiers advanced southward, reached a forested area, entered it, crossed it, traversed the Psel River, and captured the village of Borylivka.
A gradual advance along the highway toward Sumy was anticipated.
That is, prolonged and fierce fighting for Velyka Rybytsia, which has already begun.
Subsequently, an advance toward Hrunivka would follow and from there toward Borylivka, with gradual clearance of forested tracts further north.
However, command executed a surprise push from north to south», reported Russian military analyst Dmitry Degtyaryov, creator of the Telegram channel «General Staff».
Consequently, Russian soldiers severed the highway, essentially reaching the rear of the Ukrainian garrison in Hrunivka and Velyka Rybytsia.
Their resupply was conducted along that road, which has now been effectively halted.
Just 13 km from Sumy
First, this means these settlements will fall much faster.
Second, from their current positions, Russian soldiers sit just 13 kilometers from Sumy (simultaneously 11 kilometers from the north and 13 kilometers from the northeast).
Examining the present front-line layout across the board rather than sector by sector, one can state that an operation to encircle Sumy begins from this moment, utilizing the identical tactical doctrine employed in battles for Dobropillia and applied today for Bilozerske and Orikhiv.
In this specific sector, Russian soldiers face three villages ahead, of which serious resistance is expected only around Velyka Chernechchyna.
This is a sizeable settlement, densely built, which counted nearly 2,500 residents prior to the war.
«It is clear that simply advancing along the highway will not be possible and that clearing the forested areas south and north of the road will be required simultaneously.
This work is already underway. [...]
In the north, fighting is already taking place in Nikolske.
And if we capture the village soon, we might potentially begin applying pressure from there toward Olshanka.
This will mean the distance to Sumy narrows to just 8 kilometers», argues the Russian analyst.
A strong probability exists that fighting for the city itself will erupt as early as late this year or early next year.
Kharkiv also in a vise
The expert also confirmed that combat operations continue toward Kharkiv, albeit at a slower pace.
Presently, the distance from the regional capital stands at 18 kilometers and decreases steadily, while the Ukrainian military loses control over extensive territory.
However, as Dmitry Degtyaryov pointed out, Kharkiv constitutes a probable target only for 2028.
An important caveat exists: this holds provided Russians continue operating with the force levels currently at their disposal.
In the event of substantial reinforcements, as well as supplying troops with expanded volumes of equipment (Shturm battle tanks, the newest Mangal configurations, electronic warfare systems, and active protection suites adequate for this objective), it is estimated they could reach Kharkiv far sooner.
Furthermore, it is reported that military group «West», also operating in the Kharkiv region, captured more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, crushing an enormous concentration of opposing forces near both Kupiansk and Lyman.
Next target: Kherson
The truce continues in the area of the settlement of Oleshky.
The ceasefire also applies to Kherson, lasting until November 1.
Ukraine had mined access routes toward Oleshky, creating what was essentially a humanitarian catastrophe.
«The humanitarian mission aims to deliver aid to the civilian population», stated Putin.
The civilian rescue operation was in preparation as early as May.
Currently, military personnel are neutralizing explosive devices along access roads surrounding the city to guarantee safe transit for the humanitarian convoy.
«On the approaches to Oleshky, sappers from military group Dnepr are clearing the path for the humanitarian convoy.
Most mines were dropped from drones and almost all are non-removable: touching them triggers detonation.
They are therefore neutralized on site.
The commander of the engineering and mine clearance unit, call sign Bars, notes that mines in this sector are laid at very high density and are predominantly of foreign manufacture», reported Russian war correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda, Alexander Kots.
Ukrainians assert that Russian armed forces are «reinforcing their positions in the Oleshky area, taking advantage of the truce».
However, precisely the same activity is occurring on the right bank, which remains under Ukrainian occupation.
Preparing something major
The brief operational pause along this axis is being utilized to prepare for developments following the expiration of the ceasefire.
As has been repeatedly noted, truces of this nature will not lead to peace, nor are they capable of doing so.
«Russia is preparing for an offensive in the Kherson region: personnel, munitions, and provisions are continuously transported into settlements», asserts a Ukrainian soldier with call sign Osman.
Ukrainian channel «Region_22» reported that Russians continue amassing KamAZ trucks and munitions, while the industrial district of Kakhovka is being covered with anti-drone netting.
It is also worth noting that a few days ago, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov inspected the combat readiness and operational missions of formations within group Dnepr.
This indicates, as is customarily said under such circumstances, that «something is about to happen».
The Nudol threat
«Over the past four months, Kyiv attempted to secure from Moscow a swap along the lines of Russian oil refineries in exchange for the entire energy system of Ukraine.
Ultimately, Zelensky succeeded in securing an exchange, but not with Putin and not on the terms he wanted.
His interlocutor was Trump, and the actual arrangement is as follows: halting strikes against Russian oil refineries in exchange for raising the operational speed limit of Starshield above 160 kilometers per hour.
Simultaneously, the White House proved it can do whatever it wishes with its proxies in Kyiv... whenever it desires», highlights Russian military analyst and retired colonel Aslan Nakhushev.
Special correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda and creator of the channel «Russky Tarantas», Dmitry Steshin, commented concisely on the matter: «We lagged in technological competition for several years, but regrouped rapidly and Rassvet systems are already plugging this gap.
We could have, but failed to, clear the skies over Ukraine of Starlink, even though we could well have deployed the Nudol anti-satellite missile, successfully tested shortly before the start of the special military operation, as a powerful negotiating argument.
Conceivably, the threat of employing Nudol was what allowed the US to reach the correct decision.
Harsh times await the Ukrainian armed forces».
«The most terrifying ultimatum of Putin was heard»
All the more so because, shortly before, Elon Musk accused Zelensky of violating terms of use for the Starlink network, asserting that his satellites «could constitute legitimate military targets».
The restriction imposed by Musk on utilizing commercial terminals for deep-strike operations remains active.
However, as The Atlantic writes, Ukrainian armed forces continue exploiting loopholes, procuring terminals via Poland and Germany.
And it appears that precisely for this reason Musk reiterated that he fears strikes against his satellites, specifically by PL-19-181M/Nudol missiles.
«A hostile strike against Starlink satellites would unleash a catastrophic domino effect, creating an extensive debris field in space, which would in turn render space usage impossible», the publication emphasizes.
Abruptly, Zelensky stated publicly that Ukrainian armed forces will not strike Russian vessels in the Black Sea transporting fuel to the US.
Subsequently, Vladimir Putin expressed his respect toward Elon Musk, but in the West observers concluded that «the most terrifying ultimatum of Putin was heard».
Why?
In all probability, the matter is indeed linked to Russian missiles.
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