The critical midterm elections in the US have arrived... on November 3, 2026, the polls open and all indications are clear: Republicans will certainly lose the House of Representatives, yet the Senate is up for grabs... the battle is literally on a knife-edge...
Republicans will 100% lose the House, Democrats will take 230 seats... but if they do not lose the Senate... the political game is not lost...
There is a possibility that Republicans might narrowly win the Senate.
Overall, Republicans will lose across the US by 6% in the elections in terms of total vote share.
What are the elections about?
House of Representatives: All 435 members are elected for a two-year term.
Senate: 35 of the 100 senators (Class 2 seats) are elected for a six-year term.
Governors: Gubernatorial elections are held in 39 states and territories.
Republicans will lose by 5% to 6%
Most Americans are confident that Trump will not accept the election results if Republicans lose control of Congress.
He is already claiming that Democrats are trying to steal his party's victory.
Up for grabs in the Senate
Of the 100 Senate seats, 35 are available for 2026.
According to forecasts by analytics platform Real Clear Politics (RCP), Democrats could win a total of 47 seats, while Republicans could win 44.
In 10 states, candidate odds are roughly tied, in 8, Republicans hold a slight advantage, and a win in 6 states would be sufficient to secure half the seats in the upper house of Congress.
Vice President Vance would also secure the tie-breaking votes.
Russian firm Dubravsky Consulting calculated that Republicans will lose the House of Representatives, but considers the US Senate to be up for grabs.
In the House, Democrats will win 228 seats against 207 for Republicans, and will also win 51 against 49 in the Senate.
However, the most likely scenario remains that Republicans retain control of the Senate due to Vance.
The House is lost for Republicans: Democrats will win up to 230 seats... maximum 237 seats
Meanwhile, the position of Republicans in the House of Representatives appears virtually hopeless.
According to estimates by Real Clear Politics, Democrats will win 227 of the 435 seats.
And as election day draws nearer, the weaker the position of Republicans becomes...
According to Cook Political Report, Democrats have the opportunity to win 230 seats up to 237 seats in the House of Representatives.
In the Senate, conversely, Republicans could hold an advantage of one or two seats.
However, pollsters warn that recent surveys indicate supporters of Trump are weakening in traditionally conservative states such as South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning surprises could occur there as well.
A Democrat could also win the election in Alaska for the first time in 18 years.
At 95% the probability of Democratic victory in the House and 76.4% in the Senate
At the same time, a poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed that 52% of Americans trust the Democratic Party, while 41% trust the Republican Party.
According to CNN, popularity for Democrats hovers around 49%, compared to 39% for Republicans.
Renowned election analyst Nate Silver believes Democrats have a 95% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 76.4% chance of winning the Senate.
Decision Desk HQ estimates the probability of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives at 77% and in the Senate at 56%.
Trump approval... has dropped... and 5,000 dollars to every adult and 500 dollars from Obamacare
According to American sociologists, the poor performance of Republicans is linked to falling approval ratings for Trump.
According to various polls, 31-32% of Americans trusted him in late October.
Nevertheless, US leader Trump is attempting to help his party.
Specifically, he promised ordinary citizens cash if his party members retain control of Congress.
«If Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives and the US Senate, then in both cases, thanks to our tremendous strength and financial success, I will pay a 5,000-dollar dividend to every adult US citizen», stated Trump.
Furthermore, since late September, the Department of the Treasury has been sending letters to enrollees of Obamacare containing 500-dollar checks alongside a letter signed by the president listing his achievements.
And in early October, the American leader promised to pay all retirees 90 dollars from the Medicare Improvement Fund.
However, Democrats consider this latest initiative illegal, as it occurred without the approval of Congress.
If financial assistance to ordinary Americans, which critics call vote buying, does not deliver victory for the Republican Party, Trump may simply refuse to accept the results of the legislative elections.
He already accuses pollsters of lying and Democratic officials in certain states of inflating voter registration rolls.
He claims there could be several million fraudulent ballots...
He will pay 1 million dollars... to anyone who provides evidence
The president claims he is willing to pay 1 million dollars to anyone who reports fraud in the upcoming or previous elections, provided that the information leads to the conviction of those responsible.
Meanwhile, MAGA opinion leaders constantly post messages on social media claiming that Democrats can win only through massive electoral fraud.
The Washington Post does not rule out that Trump is thus preparing Americans for a disruption of the electoral process.
Meanwhile, a poll by The Post, ABC News, and Ipsos found that only 28% of Americans are confident that the president will accept the election results if Republicans lose.
Trump will not challenge the electoral process as a whole
Trump is unlikely to challenge the entire electoral process, because it is technically difficult to execute and makes no sense.
The elections will not be supervised by the federal government, but by state authorities, and in many areas, Republicans will prevail, a victory that must not be questioned.
Furthermore, Trump has already ostensibly accepted the loss of control of the House of Representatives.
The Senate is the target of Trump
The main focus remains centered on the Senate elections. Democrats and Republicans can secure only a one- or two-seat majority.
Therefore, when Trump speaks of fraud, he is likely targeting the Senate.
Even here, however, he will contest the elections not across the entire United States, but in specific states.
For example, Alaska, Texas, and other traditionally Republican areas find themselves in a difficult spot this time.
Another issue is that Trump does not have many options.
For instance, even Republicans would not approve of an attempt by the president to violently interfere in the electoral process: they worry that one day the United States will be led by someone from the left...
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court, which includes appointees of Trump, does not always issue the rulings he desires.
As is well known, the refusal of Trump to concede defeat in the presidential election of 2020 led his supporters to attempt to seize the Capitol building.
The unrest led to five deaths and hundreds of injuries.
«The assault on the Capitol is a murky affair, in which someone clearly held a vested interest.
Otherwise, the crowd would not have been able to breach.
Trump finds himself in a completely different situation today.
He may not recognize the results of the legislative elections, but that is unlikely to have any impact.
The conflict between the president and Democrats has already reached a level where any cooperation is out of the question.
Massive political crisis in the US
Consequently, the domestic political crisis will continue to escalate and none of the participants will want to take responsibility.
The US president and Democratic members of Congress may attempt to shift public attention from domestic issues to external flashpoints.
For example, Trump will resume strikes against Iran and his Democratic rivals will begin backing Ukraine.
Then, the American political crisis will become a threat to the entire international community.
Difficult days are coming internationally.
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